Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve

274 Pages·1997·27.494 MB·English

by  Lars-Erik Cederman

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R I N C E T O N STUD I ES N COMP LEX I TY
EMERGENT ACTORS IN WORLD POLITICS
PRINCETON STUDIES IN COMPLEXITY
Editors n Philip W. Anderson (Princeton University)
Joshua M. Epstein (The Brookings Institution)
Duncan K. Foley (Barnard College)
Simon A. Levin (Princeton University)
Gottfried Mayer-Kress (University of Illinois)
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EMERGENT ACTORS IN
WORLD POLITICS
HOW STATES AND NATIONS
DEVELOP AND DISSOLVE
Lars-Erik Cederman
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
Copyright © 1997 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom; Princeton University Press,
Chichester, West Sussex
All Rights Reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Cederman, Lars-Erik, 1963-
Emergent actors in world politics : how states and nations develop
and dissolve / Lars-Erik Cederman.
P- cm. — (Princeton studies in complexity)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-691-02149-X (cl ; alk. paper). — ISBN 0-691-02148-1 (pb :
alk. paper)
1. International relations. 2. National state. 3. World
politics—1989- I. Title. II. Series.
JX1391.C37 1997
327.1'01—dc21 96-45562 CIP
This book has been composed in Times Roman
Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and
meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee
on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the
Council on Library Resources
Printed in the United States of America by Princeton Academic Press
2 4 6 8 10 9 7 5 3 1
2 4 6 8 10 9 7 5 3 1
(Pbk.)
IN MEMORY OF MY GRANDMOTHER
Marta Malmberg
BORN IN 19 0 5, THE YEAR THAT THE
PEACEFUL DISSOLUTION OF THE SWEDISH-
NORWEGIAN UNION WAS AGREED UPON IN
KARLSTAD, THE CITY OF MY CHILDHOOD

Contents
List of Tables IX
List of Figures XI
Preface Xlll
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
Chapter 2. Modeling Actors in World Politics 14
Introduction 14
Defining the State and the Nation 16
From Reification to Emergence 19
An Overview of the Literature 23
Why Models Are Needed 29
Why Current Models Will Not Do the Trick 32
Conclusion 36
Chapter 3. Toward Richer Models 37
Introduction 37
The Problem of Historical Contingency 38
The Problem of Methodological Individualism and Materialism 44
The Complex Adaptive Systems Approach 49
An Introduction to the Models 69
Chapter 4. Emergent Polarity 72
Introduction 72
Power Politics and Emergent Polarity 74
A Nontechnical Overview 79
Technical Specification 81
The Impact of Predation and Defense: Hegemonic Takeoff 92
The Impact of Defensive Alliances: Regional Balancing 98
Conclusion 104
Chapter 5. Extending the Emergent Polarity Model 109
Introduction 109
Simplifying the Alliance Mechanism: Power Balancing 109
Strategic Adaptation 112
Proportional Resource Allocation 117
Two-Level Action 121
An Example of Geopolitical Overextension 126
Viii CONTENTS
Chapter 6. Modeling Nationalism 136
Introduction 136
A Taxonomy of Nations and States 138
Three Types of Nationalism 141
Nationalist Mobilization and Coordination 146
Chapter 7. Nationalist Mobilization 151
Introduction 151
Modeling Political Mobilization 152
Modeling Collective Action 163
Historical Illustrations 170
Conclusion 174
Appendix 177
Chapter 8. Nationalist Coordination 184
Introduction 184
An Ecological Model of Nationality Formation 187
Technical Specification 191
Simulation Results 197
Nationalist Coordination and the Formation of Yugoslavia 201
Conclusion 210
Chapter 9. Conclusions for Theory and Policy 213
Substantive Findings 213
Closing the Metatheoretical Gap 219
Consequences for Policy 222
Bibliography 233
Index 255
Tables
3.1 A guide to the four modeling chapters 70
7.1 A comparison of three basic hypotheses 157
8.1 The fit of transcommunal identities 192