Table Of ContentElectoral Systems and Political
Transformation in Post -Communist Europe
One Europe or Several?
Series Editor: Helen Wallace
The One Europe or Several? series examines contemporary processes of political,
security, economic, social and cultural change across the European continent, as
well as issues of convergence/divergence and prospects for integration and
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Titles include:
Sarah Birch
ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AND POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION
IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE
Sarah Birch, Frances Millard, Marina Popescu and Kieran Williams
EMBODYING DEMOCRACY
Electoral System Design in Post-Communist Europe
Andrew Cottey, Timothy Edmunds and Anthony Forster (editors)
DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF THE MILITARY IN POSTCOMMUNIST EUROPE
Guarding the Guards
Anthony Forster, Timothy Edmunds and Andrew Cottey (editors)
THE CHALLENGE OF MILITARY REFORM IN POSTCOMMUNIST EUROPE
Building Professional Armed Forces
Anthony Forster, Timothy Edmunds and Andrew Cottey (editors)
SOLDIERS AND SOCIETIES IN POSTCOMMUNIST EUROPE
Legitimacy and Change
Andrew Jordan
THE EUROPEANIZATION OF BRITISH ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
A Departmental Perspective
Valsamis Mitsilegas, Jorg Monar and Wyn Rees
THE EUROPEAN UNION AND INTERNAL SECURITY
Guardian of the People?
Helen Wallace (editor)
INTERLOCKING DIMENSIONS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
One Europe or Several?
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Electoral Systems and
Political Transformation in
Post-Communist Europe
Sarah Birch
Reader, Department of Government, University of Essex, UK
Cl Sarah Sirch 2003
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2003 978-0-333-98765-0
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Contents
List of Tables viii
Preface x
Part I Electoral Systems in Post-Communist Europe 1
1 Electoral Systems and Post-Communist Transition 3
2 An Overview of Post-Communist Electoral
Systems: Design and Measurement 28
Part II Electoral Systems and Voters S3
3 Electoral Participation 55
4 Representational Inclusion 77
Part III Electoral Systems and Parties 97
5 Party System Size and Shape 99
6 Party System Stability and Change 119
7 Conclusion 136
Appendix A: Summary Election Results for
20 Post-Communist States 146
Appendix B: Data Sources 178
Appendix C: Data on Party System Evolution 185
Notes 189
Bibliography 195
Index 208
vii
List of Tables
2.1 Details of electoral system format
in 20 post-communist states 29
2.2 Additional national-level elected bodies 33
2.3 Details of party and campaign finance rules 35
3.1 Turnout in parliamentary elections (%) 60
3.2 Average turnout by election 63
3.3 Provisions to facilitate voting 69
3.4 OLS model of turnout (country averages) 73
4.1 Inclusion rates in post-communist Europe (%) 88
4.2 OLS model of representational inclusion
(country averages) 91
4.3 OLS models of inclusion at the first,
second, and third elections 92
5.1 Absolute number of parties 101
5.2 Effective number of parties 109
5.3 Party vote and seat shares 111
5.4 OLS models of the effective number of
parties (country averages) 116
5.5 OLS model of closeness of the race
(difference between the vote shares of the
two largest parties) (country averages) 117
6.1 Volatility scores 124
6.2 Party replacement scores 126
6.3 OLS models of volatility and replacement
(country averages) 132
7.1 Independent vote and seat shares in
Russia and Ukraine 140
Al Albania: Kuvendi PopulI or 146
A2 Armenia: Azgayin ]oghov 148
A3 Bosnia and Herzegovina:
Zastupnicki/Predstavnicki Dom 149
A4 Bulgaria: Subranie 151
AS Croatia: Zastupnicki Dom 152
A6 The Czech Republic: Poslanecka Snemovna 153
A7 Estonia: Riigikogu 154
A8 Georgia: Sakartvelos ISS
viii
List o(Tables ix
A9 Hungary: Orszaggyules 157
A10 Latvia: Saeima 159
A11 Lithuania: Seimas 161
A12 Macedonia: Sobranie 164
A13 Moldova: Parlamentul 165
A14 Poland: Sejm 166
A15 Romania: Camera Deputatilor 168
A16 Russia: Duma 169
A17 Slovakia: Narodna rada 172
A18 Slovenia: Drzavni Zbor 173
A19 Ukraine: Verkhovna Rada 174
A20 Yugoslavia: Vece Gradjana 177
Preface
This study assesses the impact of electoral system design on political
change in 20 post-communist European states between 1990 and 2002.
In examining the effects of institutional structures, it is a companion
volume to the collective monograph on their causes entitled Embodying
Democracy: Electoral System Design in Post-Communist Europe (Birch et al.,
2002). In the dozen or so years since the collapse of communism in
Central and Eastern Europe between 1989 and 1991, virtually all the
states in the region have held at least three parliamentary elections,
providing sufficient data for scholars to begin to examine patterns and
discern emergent trends. The vast majority of the transitional states
undertook significant electoral reform at the outset of the democratiza
tion process, and as documented in Embodying Democracy, the electoral
institutions adopted at this point have remained largely unchanged in
their broad outlines (despite considerable tinkering with the details).
The aim of this study is to trace the multiple links between electoral sys
tems and political change in order to establish patterns in the effects of
electoral system design on post-communist developments. The focus
will be on elections to lower or only chambers of the national parlia
ments, as these are bodies common to all states and these are the insti
tutions central to the development of political party systems as effective
mediators between the citizenry and political outcomes.
Research in the field of electoral systems has generated a corpus of
well-substantiated findings as to the effect of electoral systems on repre
sentative structures and governance in liberal democracies. Not only do
political scientists now have good grounds from which to predict the
likely impact of electoral laws, but there are frequent suggestions that
their findings would be of use to the framers of electoral regimes in
democratizing countries. Indeed, this body of work has been influential
in shaping the views of many of those who advise the leaders of such
states as to what type of electoral system to adopt. Yet very little actual
research has been done on the workings of electoral systems during
transition. As the more cautious students of electoral systems note, the
first few elections in a country are often not indicative of long-term
trends. Nevertheless, the outcome of these elections are crucial in shap
ing the course of a transition process, and often in determining the fate
of democratization itself.
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