Effective altruism, dynamic effects, and coordination

40 Pages·2016·0.15 MB·English

by  Stefan Schubert

Effective altruism, dynamic
effects, and coordination
Stefan Schubert, Centre for Effective Altruism
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Effective altruism
• Effective altruism: idea and movement whose goal is to do the most
good
• Precisification (MacAskill): promoting welfare using evidence and
reason
• Compatible with a range of ethical theories and methods for doing
good
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Cause neutrality and prioritisation
• Distinctive features: cause neutrality and means neutrality
• Entail prioritisation
• Cf Lionel Robbins: economics ”studies human behavior as a
relationship between limited resources and unlimited wants which
have alternative uses”
• Economic thinking hitherto strongly under-utilitized among altruists.
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Effective altruist work
• In practice, effective altruists work on:
• Global poverty, animal welfare and existential risk mitigation
• Movement building and improvement (meta-work)
• Methods include charity rating (GiveWell) and career advice (80’000
Hours)
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Effective altruism as evidence-based philanthropy
• Effective altruism viewed as introducing evidence into philanthropy.
Steven Pinker:
“In many spheres of life, observers are replacing gut feelings with
quantitative analysis. Sports have been revolutionized by Moneyball,
policy by Nudge, punditry by 538.com, forecasting by tournaments and
prediction markets, philanthropy by effective altruism, the healing arts
by evidence-based medicine.”
• Question: what kind of evidence?
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Effective altruism and evidence
• In principle, EAs are open to many different uses of evidence
• In practice, effective altruism has been associated with (e.g. Angus
Deaton, Daron Acemoglu, Iason Gabriel):
a) Randomized controlled trials
b) Focus on direct, clearly observable effects of actions
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Effective altruism and evidence
• True that within global poverty and health, many EA
recommendations are RCT-backed
• Against Malaria Foundation, Give Directly
• Outside global poverty, this is much less true (James Snowden):
• E.g., existential risk, career advice, movement building
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Effective Altruism and unsalient effects
• Other trend in EA: strong focus on indirect effects and effects of others’
action
• What are the far-future effects of global poverty interventions?
• To what extent will what looks like high-impact problems today become less
impactful thanks to future work on them? (Future non-neglectedness)
• To what extent will an EA doctor replace another doctor, who would have
done an equally good job? (Replaceability argument)
• Neither EAs themselves nor their critics tend to highlight this feature in
discussions about effective altruism.
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Effective Altruism and unsalient effects
• Will here focus on effects of others’ actions
• Serve to give us a better picture of EA’s relation to evidence
• Important if effective altruism is in some sense the philanthropy
counterpart of evidence-based medicine
• Also important in its own right
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Effects of others’ actions
• Effective altruists are better than other altruists at taking these effects into
account.
• Focus on counterfactual impact – as opposed to direct impact
• ”What changed, because of my actions?” rather than
• ”What direct impact did I have?”
• Could plausibly could do better, as we shall see.
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