Economic Challenges Facing Middle Eastern and North African Countries: Alternative Futures

272 Pages·1998·34.124 MB·English

by  Nemat Shafik (eds.)

ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
FACING MIDDLE EASTERN
AND NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Also by N emat Shafik
PROSPECTS FOR MIDDLE EASTERN AND NORTII AFRICAN
ECONOMIES: From Boom to Bust and Back?
REVIVING PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES: Empirical Studies and Policy Lessons (editor with
A. Chhibber and M. Dailami)
Economic Challenges
Facing Middle Eastern
and North African
Countries
Alternative Futures
Edited by
Nemat Shafik
Foreword by Heba Handoussa
~ 1-t'Sr~1
in associalion with
~ ~ Palgrave Macmillan
First published in Great Britain 1998 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
HoundmiIls, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London
Companies and representatives throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-0-333-71399-0 ISBN 978-1-349-26124-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-26124-6
First published in the United States of America 1998 by
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC.,
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-17632-7
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Economic chaUenges facing Middle Eastern and North African countries
: alternative futures I edited by Nemat Shafik.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-312-17632-7 (cloth)
I. Middle East-Economic policy. 2. Africa, North-Economic
policy. 3. Economic forecasting-Middle East. 4. Economic
forecasting-Africa, North. 5. Middle East-Economic
conditions-1979- 6. Africa, North-Economic conditions.
I. Shafik, Nemat.
HC415.15.E27 1997
338.956-DC21 97-13673
CIP
© Economic Research Forum 1998
AU rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made
without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with
written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and
Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any Iicence permitting Iimited copying issued by
the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WIP 9HE.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be Iiable to
criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in
accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fuUy managed and
sustained forest sources.
\0987654 321
07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume are entirely those
of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its
affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the
countries they represent.
To Talaat Shafik
Contents
List 0/ Figures and Tables IX
Foreword by Heba Handoussa Xl
Notes on the Contributors xii
1 Eeonomie Challenges Faeing Middle Eastern and
North Afriean Countries: An Overview
Nemat Shafik
PART I PERSPECTIVES FROM TUE MAGHREB
2 Adjustment, Strategie Planning, and the Moroccan
Economy
Bachir Hamdouch 13
3 Competition Polieies and Deregulation in Tunisia
Mohamed Hedi Lahouel 25
PART 11 PERSPECTIVES FROM TUE MASHREQ
4 AVision for Egypt in 2012
Heba Handoussa and Hanaa Kheir-El-Din 53
5 The State and the Private Seetor in Jordan
Taher H. Kanaan 78
6 The Palestinian Eeonomy: Alternative Futures
George T Abed 101
7 Reeonstrueting Lebanon's Economy
Georges Corm 116
8 Syria: Strategie Eeonomie Issues
Nabil Sukkar 136
VII
viii Contents
PART m PERSPEcrIVES FROM TURKEY, SUDAN, IRAN,
ANDTHEGULF
9 Determinants of Economie Growth in Turkey
Sübidey Togan 159
10 Sudan: Toward a Strategie Vision for Peace and
Development
Ibrahim A. Elbadawi 178
11 Struetural Adjustment and the Iranian Economy
Massoud Karshenas 202
12 Policies and Economie Potential in the Countries of
the Gulf Cooperation Council
Hossein Askari. Maha Bazzari. and William Tyler 225
Index 257
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
9.1 GDP growth, Turkey, 1950-94 160
11.1 Per capita income, Iran and various regions, 1955-92 203
11.2 Per capita income, Iran, Republic of Korea, and Turkey,
1955-92 204
11.3 Manufacturing output, employment, and productivity,
Iran, 1963-90 208
11.4 Real wages and the cost and price structure in
manufacturing, Iran, 1963-90 210
Tables
2.1 Macroeconomic indicators, Morocco, various years 15
3.1 Restricted and liberalized imports, Tunisia, 1983-94 27
3.2 Unrestricted imports, Tunisia, 1987-93 28
3.3 Domestic production protected by quantitative
restrictions, Tunisia, 1987-93 29
3.4 Nominal domestic protection by sector, Tunisia, 1983-90 31
3.5 Effective domestic protection by sector, Tunisia, 1980-90 32
5.1 Gross domestic product in the public and private
sectors by economic activity, Jordan, 1990-92 80
5.2 Value as added in the public and private sectors, Jordan,
1985-90 81
5.3 Public financing, various countries, 1991 82
A5.1 Performance of public shareholding companies listed
in the Amman Financial Market, 1981-90 98
A5.2 Public entities and employment 99
7.1 Inflation rates and exchange rates, Lebanon, 1989-94 124
8.1 Destination of Syrian exports, 1991-93 144
8.2 Access to health services, safe water, and sanitation,
Syria, 1988-93 147
8.3 External financing, Syria, 1977-89 150
8.4 External debt ratios, Syria, 1989-93 151
10.1 Economic indicators and gross domestic product, Sudan,
fiscal 1971-91 179
10.2 Macroeconomic indicators, Sudan, 1971-94 181
lX
x List of Figures and Tab/es
10.3 Costs of civil war in Sudan 185
10.4 Four stages of agricultural transformation 192
11.1 Structure and growth of the manufacturing sector in
Iran, Turkey, and Republic of Korea 209
11.2 Macroeconomic indicators, Iran, 1988-93 214
12.1 Economic indicators, Gulf Cooperation Council, 1970-93 226
12.2 Required savings rates with different life of oil reserves,
size of nonoil economy, and rates of real return 231
12.3 Actuallife of oil reserves, size of nonoil economy, and
national and required savings rates, GCC 231
12.4 Trade and current account balances, GCC, 1980 and
1992 234
12.5 Revenues, expenditures, and budget balances, GCC,
1970-92 237
12.6 Fuel, electricity, and water subsidies, GCC, 1980-92 239
12.7 Expatriate labor as a share of total labor force, GCC,
1975-90 245
12.8 Population structures, GCC, 1960-90 248
12.9 Actual and projected growth rates for water
consumption, GCC, 1980-2000 251
12.10 Projected consumption of desalinated water, GCC,
1995-2015 253