Econometric Theory and Methods

712 Pages·2003·5.44 MB·English

by  Russell Davidson

Chapter 1
Regression Models
1.1 Introduction
Regression models form the core of the discipline of econometrics. Although
econometricians routinely estimate a wide variety of statistical models, using
many different types of data, the vast majority of these are either regression
models or close relatives of them. In this chapter, we introduce the concept of
aregressionmodel, discussseveralvarietiesofthem, andintroducetheestima-
tionmethodthatismostcommonlyusedwithregressionmodels,namely,least
squares. This estimation method is derived by using the method of moments,
which is a very general principle of estimation that has many applications in
econometrics.
The most elementary type of regression model is the simple linear regression
model, which can be expressed by the following equation:
y = β +β X +u . (1.01)
t 1 2 t t
The subscript t is used to index the observations of a sample. The total num-
ber of observations, also called the sample size, will be denoted by n. Thus,
for a sample of size n, the subscript t runs from 1 to n. Each observation
comprises an observation on a dependent variable, written as y for observa-
t
tion t, and an observation on a single explanatory variable, or independent
variable, written as X .
t
The relation (1.01) links the observations on the dependent and the explana-
tory variables for each observation in terms of two unknown parameters, β
1
and β , and an unobserved error term, u . Thus, of the five quantities that
2 t
appear in (1.01), two, y and X , are observed, and three, β , β , and u , are
t t 1 2 t
not. Three of them, y , X , and u , are specific to observation t, while the
t t t
other two, the parameters, are common to all n observations.
Here is a simple example of how a regression model like (1.01) could arise in
economics. Suppose that the index t is a time index, as the notation suggests.
Each value of t could represent a year, for instance. Then y could be house-
t
holdconsumptionasmeasuredinyeart, andX couldbemeasureddisposable
t
income of households in the same year. In that case, (1.01) would represent
what in elementary macroeconomics is called a consumption function.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon 3
4 Regression Models
If for the moment we ignore the presence of the error terms, β is the marginal
2
propensity to consume out of disposable income, and β is what is sometimes
1
calledautonomousconsumption. Asistrueofagreatmanyeconometricmod-
els, the parameters in this example can be seen to have a direct interpretation
in terms of economic theory. The variables, income and consumption, do in-
deed vary in value from year to year, as the term “variables” suggests. In
contrast, the parameters reflect aspects of the economy that do not vary, but
take on the same values each year.
The purpose of formulating the model (1.01) is to try to explain the observed
values of the dependent variable in terms of those of the explanatory variable.
According to (1.01), for each t, the value of y is given by a linear function
t
of X , plus what we have called the error term, u . The linear (strictly speak-
t t
ing, affine1) function, which in this case is β +β X , is called the regression
1 2 t
function. At this stage we should note that, as long as we say nothing about
the unobserved quantity u , (1.01) does not tell us anything. In fact, we can
t
allow the parameters β and β to be quite arbitrary, since, for any given β
1 2 1
and β , (1.01) can always be made to be true by defining u suitably.
2 t
If we wish to make sense of the regression model (1.01), then, we must make
some assumptions about the properties of the error term u . Precisely what
t
those assumptions are will vary from case to case. In all cases, though, it is
assumed that u is a random variable. Most commonly, it is assumed that,
t
whatever the value of X , the expectation of the random variable u is zero.
t t
This assumption usually serves to identify the unknown parameters β and
1
β , inthesensethat, undertheassumption, (1.01)canbetrueonlyforspecific
2
values of those parameters.
The presence of error terms in regression models means that the explanations
these models provide are at best partial. This would not be so if the error
terms could be directly observed as economic variables, for then u could be
t
treated as a further explanatory variable. In that case, (1.01) would be a
relation linking y to X and u in a completely unambiguous fashion. Given
t t t
X and u , y would be completely explained without error.
t t t
Of course, error terms are not observed in the real world. They are included
in regression models because we are not able to specify all of the real-world
factors that determine y . When we set up our models with u as a ran-
t t
dom variable, what we are really doing is using the mathematical concept of
randomness to model our ignorance of the details of economic mechanisms.
What we are doing when we suppose that the mean of an error term is zero is
supposing that the factors determining y that we ignore are just as likely to
t
make y bigger than it would have been if those factors were absent as they
t
are to make y smaller. Thus we are assuming that, on average, the effects
t
of the neglected determinants tend to cancel out. This does not mean that
1 A function g(x) is said to be affine if it takes the form g(x) = a+bx for two
real numbers a and b.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
1.2 Distributions, Densities, and Moments 5
those effects are necessarily small. The proportion of the variation in y that
t
is accounted for by the error term will depend on the nature of the data and
the extent of our ignorance. Even if this proportion is large, as it will be in
some cases, regression models like (1.01) can be useful if they allow us to see
how y is related to the variables, like X , that we can actually observe.
t t
Much of the literature in econometrics, and therefore much of this book, is
concerned with how to estimate, and test hypotheses about, the parameters
of regression models. In the case of (1.01), these parameters are the constant
term, or intercept, β , and the slope coefficient, β . Although we will begin
1 2
our discussion of estimation in this chapter, most of it will be postponed until
laterchapters. Inthischapter,weareprimarilyconcernedwithunderstanding
regression models as statistical models, rather than with estimating them or
testing hypotheses about them.
In the next section, we review some elementary concepts from probability
theory, including random variables and their expectations. Many readers will
already be familiar with these concepts. They will be useful in Section 1.3,
where we discuss the meaning of regression models and some of the forms
that such models can take. In Section 1.4, we review some topics from matrix
algebra and show how multiple regression models can be written using matrix
notation. Finally, in Section 1.5, we introduce the method of moments and
show how it leads to ordinary least squares as a way of estimating regression
models.
1.2 Distributions, Densities, and Moments
The variables that appear in an econometric model are treated as what statis-
ticians call random variables. In order to characterize a random variable, we
must first specify the set of all the possible values that the random variable
can take on. The simplest case is a scalar random variable, or scalar r.v. The
set of possible values for a scalar r.v. may be the real line or a subset of the
real line, such as the set of nonnegative real numbers. It may also be the set
of integers or a subset of the set of integers, such as the numbers 1, 2, and 3.
Sincearandomvariableisacollectionofpossibilities,randomvariablescannot
beobservedassuch. Whatwedoobservearerealizationsofrandomvariables,
a realization being one value out of the set of possible values. For a scalar
random variable, each realization is therefore a single real value.
If X is any random variable, probabilities can be assigned to subsets of the
full set of possibilities of values for X, in some cases to each point in that
set. Such subsets are called events, and their probabilities are assigned by a
probability distribution, according to a few general rules.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
6 Regression Models
Discrete and Continuous Random Variables
The easiest sort of probability distribution to consider arises when X is a
discrete random variable, which can take on a finite, or perhaps a countably
infinite number of values, which we may denote as x ,x ,.... The probability
1 2
distribution simply assigns probabilities, that is, numbers between 0 and 1,
to each of these values, in such a way that the probabilities sum to 1:
(cid:88)∞
p(x ) = 1,
i
i=1
where p(x ) is the probability assigned to x . Any assignment of nonnega-
i i
tive probabilities that sum to one automatically respects all the general rules
alluded to above.
In the context of econometrics, the most commonly encountered discrete ran-
dom variables occur in the context of binary data, which can take on the
values 0 and 1, and in the context of count data, which can take on the values
0, 1, 2,...; see Chapter 11.
AnotherpossibilityisthatX maybeacontinuousrandomvariable, which, for
thecaseofascalarr.v., cantakeonanyvalueinsomecontinuoussubsetofthe
realline,orpossiblythewholerealline. Thedependentvariableinaregression
model is normally a continuous r.v. For a continuous r.v., the probability
distributioncanberepresentedbyacumulativedistributionfunction,orCDF.
This function, which is often denoted F(x), is defined on the real line. Its
value is Pr(X ≤ x), the probability of the event that X is equal to or less
than some value x. In general, the notation Pr(A) signifies the probability
assigned to the event A, a subset of the full set of possibilities. Since X is
continuous,itdoesnotreallymatterwhetherwedefinetheCDFasPr(X ≤ x)
or as Pr(X < x) here, but it is conventional to use the former definition.
Notice that, in the preceding paragraph, we used X to denote a random
variable and x to denote a realization of X, that is, a particular value that the
randomvariableX maytakeon. Thisdistinctionisimportantwhendiscussing
the meaning of a probability distribution, but it will rarely be necessary in
most of this book.
Probability Distributions
We may now make explicit the general rules that must be obeyed by proba-
bility distributions in assigning probabilities to events. There are just three
of these rules:
(i) All probabilities lie between 0 and 1;
(ii) The null set is assigned probability 0, and the full set of possibilities is
assigned probability 1;
(iii) The probability assigned to an event that is the union of two disjoint
events is the sum of the probabilities assigned to those disjoint events.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
1.2 Distributions, Densities, and Moments 7
We will not often need to make explicit use of these rules, but we can use
them now in order to derive some properties of any well-defined CDF for a
scalar r.v. First, a CDF F(x) tends to 0 as x → −∞. This follows because
the event (X ≤ x) tends to the null set as x → −∞, and the null set has
probability 0. By similar reasoning, F(x) tends to 1 when x → +∞, because
then the event (X ≤ x) tends to the entire real line. Further, F(x) must be
a weakly increasing function of x. This is true because, if x < x , we have
1 2
(X ≤ x ) = (X ≤ x )∪(x < X ≤ x ), (1.02)
2 1 1 2
where ∪ is the symbol for set union. The two subsets on the right-hand side
of (1.02) are clearly disjoint, and so
Pr(X ≤ x ) = Pr(X ≤ x )+Pr(x < X ≤ x ).
2 1 1 2
Since all probabilities are nonnegative, it follows that the probability that
(X ≤ x ) must be no smaller than the probability that (X ≤ x ).
2 1
For a continuous r.v., the CDF assigns probabilities to every interval on the
real line. However, if wetry to assign a probabilityto a single point, the result
is always just zero. Suppose that X is a scalar r.v. with CDF F(x). For any
interval [a,b] of the real line, the fact that F(x) is weakly increasing allows
us to compute the probability that X ∈ [a,b]. If a < b,
Pr(X ≤ b) = Pr(X ≤ a)+Pr(a < X ≤ b),
whence it follows directly from the definition of a CDF that
Pr(a ≤ X ≤ b) = F(b)−F(a), (1.03)
since, for a continuous r.v., we make no distinction between Pr(a < X ≤ b)
and Pr(a ≤ X ≤ b). If we set b = a, in the hope of obtaining the probability
that X = a, then we get F(a)−F(a) = 0.
Probability Density Functions
For continuous random variables, the concept of a probability density func-
tion, or PDF, is very closely related to that of a CDF. Whereas a distribution
function exists for any well-defined random variable, a PDF exists only when
the random variable is continuous, and when its CDF is differentiable. For a
scalar r.v., the density function, often denoted by f, is just the derivative of
the CDF:
f(x) ≡ F(cid:48)(x).
Because F(−∞) = 0 and F(∞) = 1, every PDF must be normalized to
integrate to unity. By the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus,
(cid:90) (cid:90)
∞ ∞
f(x)dx = F(cid:48)(x)dx = F(∞)−F(−∞) = 1. (1.04)
−∞ −∞
It is obvious that a PDF is nonnegative, since it is the derivative of a weakly
increasing function.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
8 Regression Models
Standard Normal CDF:
Φ(x)
........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................01.........................................50............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. x
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Standard Normal PDF:
φ(x)
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................0000................................................1234................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ x
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Figure 1.1 The CDF and PDF of the standard normal distribution
Probabilities can be computed in terms of the PDF as well as the CDF. Note
that, by (1.03) and the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus once more,
(cid:90)
b
Pr(a ≤ X ≤ b) = F(b)−F(a) = f(x)dx. (1.05)
a
Since(1.05)mustholdforarbitraryaandb,itisclearwhyf(x)mustalwaysbe
nonnegative. However, it is important to remember that f(x) is not bounded
above by unity, because the value of a PDF at a point x is not a probability.
Only when a PDF is integrated over some interval, as in (1.05), does it yield
a probability.
The most common example of a continuous distribution is provided by the
normal distribution. This is the distribution that generates the famous or
infamous “bell curve” sometimes thought to influence students’ grade distri-
butions. The fundamental member of the normal family of distributions is the
standard normal distribution. It is a continuous scalar distribution, defined
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
1.2 Distributions, Densities, and Moments 9
F(x)
..........................................................................................................................................01..........................50..........p.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. x
−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Figure 1.2 The CDF of a binary random variable
on the entire real line. The PDF of the standard normal distribution is often
denoted φ(·). Its explicit expression, which we will need later in the book, is
(cid:161) (cid:162)
φ(x) = (2π)−1/2exp −−1x2 . (1.06)
2
Unlike φ(·), the CDF, usually denoted Φ(·), has no elementary closed-form
expression. However, by (1.05) with a = −∞ and b = x, we have
(cid:90)
x
Φ(x) = φ(y)dy.
−∞
The functions Φ(·) and φ(·) are graphed in Figure 1.1. Since the PDF is the
derivative of the CDF, it achieves a maximum at x = 0, where the CDF is
rising most steeply. As the CDF approaches both 0 and 1, and consequently,
becomes very flat, the PDF approaches 0.
Although it may not be obvious at once, discrete random variables can be
characterized by a CDF just as well as continuous ones can be. Consider a
binaryr.v.X thatcantakeononlytwovalues,0and1, andlettheprobability
that X = 0 be p. It follows that the probability that X = 1 is 1−p. Then the
CDF of X, according to the definition of F(x) as Pr(X ≤ x), is the following
discontinuous, “staircase” function:
(cid:40)
0 for x < 0
F(x) = p for 0 ≤ x < 1
1 for x ≥ 1.
This CDF is graphed in Figure 1.2. Obviously, we cannot graph a corre-
sponding PDF, for it does not exist. For general discrete random variables,
thediscontinuitiesoftheCDFoccuratthediscretepermittedvaluesofX, and
the jump at each discontinuity is equal to the probability of the corresponding
value. Since the sum of the jumps is therefore equal to 1, the limiting value
of F, to the right of all permitted values, is also 1.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
10 Regression Models
Using a CDF is a reasonable way to deal with random variables that are
neither completely discrete nor completely continuous. Such hybrid variables
can be produced by the phenomenon of censoring. A random variable is said
to be censored if not all of its potential values can actually be observed. For
instance, in some data sets, a household’s measured income is set equal to 0 if
it is actually negative. It might be negative if, for instance, the household lost
more on the stock market than it earned from other sources in a given year.
Even if the true income variable is continuously distributed over the positive
and negative real line, the observed, censored, variable will have an atom, or
bump, at 0, since the single value of 0 now has a nonzero probability attached
to it, namely, the probability that an individual’s income is nonpositive. As
with a purely discrete random variable, the CDF will have a discontinuity
at 0, with a jump equal to the probability of a negative or zero income.
Moments of Random Variables
Afundamentalpropertyofarandomvariableisitsexpectation. Foradiscrete
r.v. that can take on m possible finite values x ,x ,...,x , the expectation
1 2 m
is simply
(cid:88)m
E(X) ≡ p(x )x . (1.07)
i i
i=1
Thus each possible value x is multiplied by the probability associated with
i
it. If m is infinite, the sum above has an infinite number of terms.
For a continuous r.v., the expectation is defined analogously using the PDF:
(cid:90)
∞
E(X) ≡ xf(x)dx. (1.08)
−∞
Not every r.v. has an expectation, however. The integral of a density function
alwaysexistsandequals1. ButsinceX canrangefrom−∞to∞, theintegral
(1.08) may well diverge at either limit of integration, or both, if the density
f does not tend to zero fast enough. Similarly, if m in (1.07) is infinite, the
sum may diverge. The expectation of a random variable is sometimes called
the mean or, to prevent confusion with the usual meaning of the word as the
mean of a sample, the population mean. A common notation for it is µ.
The expectation of a random variable is often referred to as its first moment.
The so-called higher moments, if they exist, are the expectations of the r.v.
raised to a power. Thus the second moment of a random variable X is the
expectation of X2, the third moment is the expectation of X3, and so on. In
general, the kth moment of a continuous random variable X is
(cid:90)
∞
m (X) ≡ xkf(x)dx.
k
−∞
Observe that the value of any moment depends only on the probability distri-
bution of the r.v. in question. For this reason, we often speak of the moments
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon
1.2 Distributions, Densities, and Moments 11
of the distribution rather than the moments of a specific random variable. If
a distribution possesses a kth moment, it also possesses all moments of order
less than k.
The higher moments just defined are called the uncentered moments of a
distribution, because, in general, X does not have mean zero. It is often more
useful to work with the central moments, which are defined as the ordinary
moments of the difference between the random variable and its expectation.
Thus the kth central moment of the distribution of a continuous r.v. X is
(cid:90)
(cid:161) (cid:162) ∞
µ ≡ E X −E(X) k = (x−µ)kf(x)dx,
k
−∞
where µ ≡ E(X). For a discrete X, the kth central moment is
(cid:161) (cid:162) (cid:88)m
µ ≡ E X −E(X) k = p(x )(x −µ)k.
k i i
i=1
By far the most important central moment is the second. It is called the
variance of the random variable and is frequently written as Var(X). Another
common notation for a variance is σ2. This notation underlines the important
fact that a variance cannot be negative. The square root of the variance, σ,
is called the standard deviation of the distribution. Estimates of standard
deviationsareoftenreferredtoasstandarderrors,especiallywhentherandom
variable in question is an estimated parameter.
Multivariate Distributions
A vector-valued random variable takes on values that are vectors. It can
be thought of as several scalar random variables that have a single, joint
distribution. For simplicity, we will focus on the case of bivariate random
variables,wherethevectorisoflength2. Acontinuous,bivariater.v.(X ,X )
1 2
has a distribution function
(cid:161) (cid:162)
F(x ,x ) = Pr (X ≤ x )∩(X ≤ x ) ,
1 2 1 1 2 2
where ∩ is the symbol for set intersection. Thus F(x ,x ) is the joint proba-
1 2
bility that both X ≤ x and X ≤ x . For continuous variables, the PDF, if
1 1 2 2
it exists, is the joint density function2
∂2F(x ,x )
1 2
f(x ,x ) = . (1.09)
1 2
∂x ∂x
1 2
2 Here we are using what computer scientists would call “overloaded function”
notation. This means that F(·) and f(·) denote respectively the CDF and the
PDF of whatever their argument(s) happen to be. This practice is harmless
provided there is no ambiguity.
Copyright (cid:176)c 1999, Russell Davidson and James G. MacKinnon