Table Of ContentSPRINGER BRIEFS IN POPULATION STUDIES
POPULATION STUDIES OF JAPAN
Toru Suzuki
Eastern Asian
Population
History and
Contemporary
Population Issues
123
SpringerBriefs in Population Studies
Population Studies of Japan
Editor-in-chief
Toshihiko Hara, Sapporo, Japan
Series editors
Shinji Anzo, Tokyo, Japan
Hisakazu Kato, Tokyo, Japan
Noriko Tsuya, Tokyo, Japan
Toru Suzuki, Tokyo, Japan
Kohei Wada, Tokyo, Japan
Hisashi Inaba, Tokyo, Japan
Minato Nakazawa, Kobe, Japan
Jim Raymo, Madison, USA
Ryuichi Kaneko, Tokyo, Japan
Satomi Kurosu, Chiba, Japan
Reiko Hayashi, Tokyo, Japan
The world population is expected to expand by 39.4% to 9.6 billion in 2060
(UN World Population Prospects, revised 2010). Meanwhile, Japan is expected
toseeitspopulationcontractbynearlyonethirdto86.7million,anditsproportion
of the elderly (65 years of age and over) will account for no less than 39.9%
(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan,
Population Projections for Japan 2012). Japan has entered the post-demographic
transitional phase and will be the fastest-shrinking country in the world, followed
byformerEasternblocnations,leadingotherAsiancountriesthatareexperiencing
drastic changes.
A declining population that is rapidly aging impacts a country’s economic
growth,labormarket,pensions,taxation,healthcare,andhousing.Thesocialstruc-
tureandgeographicaldistributioninthecountrywilldrasticallychange,andshort-
term as well as long-term solutions for economic and social consequences of this
trend will be required.
ThisseriesaimstodrawattentiontoJapan’senteringthepost-demographictran-
sition phase and to present cutting-edge research in Japanese population studies. It
willincludecompactmonographsundertheeditorialsupervisionofthePopulation
Association of Japan (PAJ).
ThePAJwasestablishedin1948andorganizesresearcherswithawiderangeof
interestsinpopulationstudiesofJapan.Themajorfieldsare(1)populationstructure
and aging; (2) migration, urbanization, and distribution; (3) fertility; (4) mortality
and morbidity; (5) nuptiality, family, and households; (6) labor force and unem-
ployment; (7) population projection and population policy (including family plan-
ning);and(8)historicaldemography.Since1978,thePAJhasbeenpublishingthe
academic journal Jinkogaku Kenkyu (The Journal of Population Studies), in which
most of the articles are written in Japanese.
Thus,thescopeofthisseriesspanstheentirefieldofpopulationissuesinJapan,
impactsonsocio-economicchange,andimplicationsforpolicymeasures.Itincludes
population aging, fertility and family formation, household structures, population
health,mortality,humangeographyandregionalpopulation,andcomparativestud-
ies withother countries.
Thisseries will beofgreatinteresttoawiderange ofresearchers inothercoun-
tries confronting a post-demographic transition stage, demographers, population
geographers, sociologists, economists, political scientists, health researchers, and
practitioners across a broad spectrum of social sciences.
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13101
Toru Suzuki
Eastern Asian Population
History and Contemporary
Population Issues
123
ToruSuzuki
National Institute ofPopulation andSocial
Security Research
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo,Japan
ISSN 2211-3215 ISSN 2211-3223 (electronic)
SpringerBriefs inPopulation Studies
ISSN 2198-2724 ISSN 2198-2732 (electronic)
Population Studies of Japan
ISBN978-981-13-3229-6 ISBN978-981-13-3230-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3230-2
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2019930994
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Preface
This is my second book in this series of Population Studies of Japan. As with my
firstbook,LowFertilityandPopulationAginginJapanandEasternAsiapublished
in 2013, the ideas and findings in this book developed while I worked as the
principalinvestigatorofresearchprojectssupportedbyHealthandLabourSciences
Research Grants (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Government of Japan).
Research titles related to this work were “Comprehensive Study on Population
Aging and Migration in Eastern Asia and ASEAN Countries” in 2015–17
(H27-Chikyukibo-Ippan-001) and “Comprehensive Study on Maintenance and
Improvement of Statistical Systems to Contribute to Universal Health Coverage in
Eastern Asia and ASEAN Countries” in 2018–19 (H30-Chikyukibo-Ippan-002).
In my first book, I limited my interest to fertility decline in Eastern Asia since
1980. However, I realized that a longer historical view is required to study the
contemporary population issues in this region. This book is an attempt at a com-
parativepopulationhistoryofEasternAsia.Topicsincludelowfertility,population
aging, internal migration, and cross-border migration. Special attention is paid to
extremely low fertility in Korea and Taiwan, the early aging issue of China,
compressedurbanizationinKorea,andthedevelopmentofcross-bordermigrations
in Eastern Asia. Although the description is by no means comprehensive, I hope
this small book provides a fresh view of Eastern Asian demography.
Tokyo, Japan Toru Suzuki
v
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank project members, Dr. Reiko Hayashi, Dr. Katsuhisa Kojima,
Mr. Keita Suga, Dr. Masataka Nakagawa, Dr. Yoshimi Chitose, and Mr. Tsukasa
Sasai of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research for
working with me. I also thank outside participants, including Prof. Satoshi
Nakagawa, Prof. Xinxin Ma, Prof. Takahito Niwa, and Prof. Jiaxin Zhong.
Our project has been supported by so many Asian scholars, researchers, and
governmentofficials.Althoughtherearetoomanynamestolisthere,Iamespecially
grateful to Prof. Keong-Suk Park, Prof. Young-Tae Cho, Prof. Kwang-Hee Jun,
Prof.Doo-SubKim,Prof.Yu-HuaChen,Prof.JamesC.T.Hsueh,Prof.MeilinLi,
Prof.Ying-HuiHsieh,Dr.Wen-ShanYang,Dr.Ji-PingLin,andDr.Rouh-RongYu.
vii
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Contemporary Population Issues in Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Population History in Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 The Plan of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2 Population of Premodern Eastern Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.1 Periodization of Eastern Asian History. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2 Population Growth in the Premodern Period. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.1 Premodern Population of Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.2 Premodern Population of Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.2.3 Premodern Population of Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2.4 Premodern Population of China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3 Transition to Peasant Society. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4 Family Patterns in Early Modern Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.5 Cultural Deterministic View of Fertility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3 Eastern Asian Populations Under Modernization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1 Western Impact in Eastern Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.2 Modern Population Changes in Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2.1 Modern Population Growth in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2.2 Modern Population Growth in Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.3 Modern Population Growth in Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.2.4 Modern Population Dynamics of China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.3 Internal Migration in Modern Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.3.1 Internal Migration in Modern Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.3.2 Internal Migration in Modern Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
ix
x Contents
3.3.3 Internal Migration in Modern Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.3.4 Internal Migration in Modern China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.4 Cross-Border Migration in Modern Eastern Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.4.1 Cross-Border Migration in Modern Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.4.2 Cross-Border Migration in Modern Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.4.3 Cross-Border Migration in Modern Taiwan. . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.4.4 Cross-Border Migration in Modern China . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.5 Demographic Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4 Contemporary Population Changes in Eastern Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.1 Upheavals and Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.2 Fertility Transition and Population Aging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.3 Urbanization in Contemporary Eastern Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
4.3.1 Urbanization of Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4.3.2 Urbanization of Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4.3.3 Capital Relocation of Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
4.3.4 Urbanization of Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.3.5 Urbanization of China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.4 Cross-Border Migration in Contemporary Eastern Asia. . . . . . . . . 66
4.4.1 Cross-Border Migration in Contemporary Japan . . . . . . . . 68
4.4.2 Cross-Border Migration in Contemporary Korea . . . . . . . . 69
4.4.3 Cross-Border Migration in Contemporary Taiwan . . . . . . . 70
4.4.4 Cross-Border Migration in Contemporary China . . . . . . . . 72
4.5 Cross-Border Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4.6 Population of DPR Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4.7 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5 Concluding Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 ContemporaryPopulationIssuesinEasternAsia
TheseconddemographictransitionofJapanstartedinthelate1970sandtheTotal
FertilityRate(TFR)recordedahistoricallylowscoreof1.26in2005.Theintensity
offertilitydeclinewasapproximatelythesameasGermany,whichrecorded1.24in
1994.ThefertilityoftheRepublicofKorea(“Korea,”hereinafter)andtheRepublic
ofChina(“Taiwan,”hereinafter)arrivedatthereplacementlevelintheearly1980s.
AlthoughtheTFRvaluestayedatahigherlevelthanJapanthroughoutthe1990s,a
drasticdeclineoccurredaftertheturnofthecentury.TaiwanrecordedaTFRvalueof
0.895in2010,andKorearecorded1.05in2017.ItispredictedthatKoreawillrecord
avaluelessthan1.0in2018.Whileitisregrettablethatnodemographictheorycould
predictsuchdrasticdeclines,westillneedtotrytointerpretsuchanemergentchange.
The cultural deterministic view of fertility in this book interprets ultralow fertility
in twenty-first century Eastern Asia with the Confucian family pattern established
beforemodernizationandWesternization.
DemographersintheUnitedNationsPopulationDivisionassumedthattheTFR
ofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(“China,”hereinafter)is1.63in2015–20(UNPD
2017).TheofficialTFRbasedonthecensusofChinawasalreadyaslowas1.22in
2000andhasnotbeentrustedbydemographers.However,thevaluearound1.6is
low enough to introduce a pro-natal policy intervention. Thus, the situation of the
Chinese government still preserving a strict anti-natal policy fining uncertificated
birthsofthirdandhigherordersispathological.
The sex ratio at birth in China, Korea, and Taiwan rose to an abnormally high
levelbecauseofselectiveabortionafterthe1980s.WhileKorearecentlysucceeded
in normalizing the ratio, illegal selective abortions are still common in China and
Taiwan. The ratio in China was as high as 120.56 in 2008, probably because of
the strong son preference in rural areas. Such preference can be understood from
patrilinealityintheConfucianfamilypattern.Aresultoftheabnormalsexratiois
themarriagesqueezeformen.
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