Earthquakes - simulations, sources and tsunamis: Fifth ACES International Workshop, Maui, 2006

342 Pages·2008·7.93 MB·English

by  Kristy F. Tiampo

Earthquakes: Simulations,
Sources and Tsunamis
Edited by
Kristy F. Tiampo
Dion K. Weatherley
Stuart A. Weinstein
Birkhäuser
Basel · Boston · Berlin
Reprint from Pure and Applied Geophysics
(PAGEOPH), Volume 165 (2008) No. 3 - 4
Editors:
Kristy F. Tiampo Dion K. Weatherley
Department of Earth Sciences Earth Systems Science
University of Western Ontario Computational Centre (ESSCC)
N6A 5B7 London, Ontario Department Earth Sciences
Canada University of Queensland
Email: [email protected] 4072 St. Lucia, Queensland
Australia
Email: [email protected]
Stuart A. Weinstein
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC)
91-270 Fort Weaver Road
Ewa Beach Hawaii 96706
USA
Email: [email protected]
Library of Congress Control Number: 2008924894
Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek:
Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed
bibliographic data is available in the Internet at <http://dnb.ddb.de>
ISBN 978-3-7643-8756-3 Birkhäuser Verlag AG, Basel · Boston · Berlin
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the
material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustra-
tions, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in
data banks. For any kind of use permission of the copyright owner must be obtained.
© 2008 Birkhäuser Verlag AG
Basel · Boston · Berlin
P.O. Box 133, CH-4010 Basel, Switzerland
Part of Springer Science+Business Media
Printed on acid-free paper produced from chlorine-free pulp. TCF ∞
Cover photo: Xiaoru Yuan, Peking University, Beijing, P.R. China
Printed in Germany
ISBN 978-3-7643-8756-3 e-ISBN 978-3-7643-8757-0
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 www.birkhauser.ch
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
Vol. 165, No. 3–4, 2008
Contents
449 Earthquakes:Simulations,SourcesandTsunamis
K.F.Tiampo,D.K.Weatherley,S.A.Weinstein
451 FiniteFaultModelinginaTsunamiWarningCenterContext
S.A.Weinstein,P.R.Lundgren
475 ModelingandVisualizationofTsunamis
H.Zhang,Y.Shi,D.A.Yuen,Z.Yan,X.Yuan,C.Zhang
497 Geophysical Finite-Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST): Algorithms and
ValidationforQuasistaticRegionalFaultedCrustProblems
J. Parker, G. Lyzenga, C. Norton, C. Zuffada, M. Glasscoe, J. Lou,
A.Donnellan
523 MultiscaleBrittle-DuctileCouplingandGenesisofSlowEarthquakes
K.Regenauer-Lieb,D.A.Yuen
545 ParallelFaultSystemswithEvolvingSelf-similarSlidingZones
A.V.Dyskin
567 3-D Simulation of Steady Plate Subduction with Tectonic Erosion: Current
CrustalUpliftandFree-AirGravityAnomalyinNortheastJapan
C.Hashimoto,T.Sato,M.Matsu’ura
585 Development of Long-period Ground Motions from the Nankai Trough,
Japan, Earthquakes: Observations and Computer Simulation of the 1944
Tonankai(Mw8.1)andthe2004SEOff-KiiPeninsula(Mw7.4)Earthquakes
T.Furumura,T.Hayakawa,M.Nakamura,K.Koketsu,T.Baba
609 ModelingWingCrackExtension:ImplicationsfortheIngredientsofDiscrete
ElementModel
Y.Wang,P.Mora
621 InteractiveVisualizationtoAdvanceEarthquakeSimulation
L.H.Kellogg,G.W.Bawden,T.Bernardin,M.Billen,E.Cowgill,B.Hamann,
M.Jadamec,O.Kreylos,O.Staadt,D.Sumner
635 The QuakeSim Project: Web Services for Managing Geophysical Data and
Applications
M.E.Pierce,G.C.Fox,M.S.Aktas,G.Aydin,H.Gadgil,Z.Qi,A.Sayar
653 ANewDesignofScientificSoftwareUsingPythonandXML
L.Gross,H.Mu€hlhaus,E.Thorne,K.Steube
671 AnEfficientSystemforCreatingSyntheticInSARImagesfromSimulations
X.Yuan,Y.Liu,D.A.Yuen,B.Chen,T.Pergler,Y.Shi
693 The Stress Accumulation Method and the Pattern Informatics Index:
ComplementaryApproachestoEarthquakeForecasting
K.F.Tiampo,D.D.Bowman,H.Colella,J.B.Rundle
711 TheNewestDevelopmentsofLoad-UnloadResponseRatio(LURR)
X.-C.Yin,L.-P.Zhang,Y.Zhang,K.Peng,H.Wang,Z.Song,H.Yu,
H.-H.Zhang,C.Yin,Y.Wang
723 EarthquakeTrendAroundSumatraIndicatedbyaNewImplementationof
LURRMethod
C.Yin,H.Xing,P.Mora,H.Xu
737 Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong
EarthquakesinSouthernCaliforniaSince1980
Y.Zhang,Y.Wu,X.Yin,K.Peng,L.Zhang,A.Yu,X.Zhang
749 FastComputingforLURRofEarthquakePrediction
Y.Feng,X.Chi,W.Wang,J.Chen,X.Yin
761 ComplexityinSequencesofSolarFlaresandEarthquakes
V.G.Kossobokov,F.Lepreti,V.Carbone
777 Earthquakes:RecurrenceandInteroccurrenceTimes
S.G.Abaimov,D.L.Turcotte,R.Shcherbakov,J.B.Rundle,G.Yakovlev,
C.Goltz,W.I.Newman
Pureappl.geophys.165(2008)449–450 (cid:2)Birkha¨userVerlag,Basel,2008
0033–4553/08/030449–2 PureandAppliedGeophysics
DOI10.1007/s00024-008-0332-x
Earthquakes: Simulations, Sources and Tsunamis
K.F. TIAMPO,1 D.K. WEATHERLEY,2and S.A. WEINSTEIN3
1. Introduction
Large earthquakes pose an almost incalculable risk, causing great destruction and,
often, loss of life. While large regions of the world are susceptible to this potentially
devastating natural hazard, the Asia-Pacific region is particularly vulnerable. Poignant
examples in the recent past include the M * 9.2 Northern Sumatra earthquake and
tsunami in December, 2004 which resulted in the deaths of nearly 300,000 people, the
M*7.6 Taiwan earthquake of September, 1999, with a death toll exceeding 2000 and
$20billionindamage,andtheM*7.2Kobe,JapanearthquakeofJanuary,1995,that
killed 5500 people and inducedlosses of more than $150billion.
In the 1990s, major advancements in seismic research greatly added to the
understanding of earthquakes fault systems as complex dynamical systems. Large
quantitiesofnewandextensiveremotesensingdatasetsprovidedinformationonthesolid
earth on scales previously inaccessible, and were integrated with a combination of
innovative analysis techniques and advanced numerical and computational methods.
Anewparadigmintheadvancementofearthquakescienceevolvedthroughadvancesin
highperformancecomputingandnumericalsimulationmethods,coupledwiththesenew
understandingsofearthquakephysics.Theresultingadvancesanddiscoveriesincludethe
LSM (Lattice Solid particle simulation Model), the Australian Computational Earth
Systems Simulator (ACcESS), Japan’s Earth Simulator, GeoFEST, QuakeSim, MFEM
(MultiscaleFinite-ElementModel),LURR(Load-UnloadedResponseRatio),PI(Pattern
Informatics),frictionlawstudies andtheirlinktoseismicityandstress,episodictremor
and slip, and studies on information transfer and the interaction between faults, among
others.ManyoftheseareincludedinorresultingfromAPECCooperationforEarthquake
Simulation(ACES)relatedresearchandactivities,andarepresentedinthisvolume.
ACEShasofferedauniqueandinnovatedopportunitytoscientistsatalllevelstogain
new understandings of the earthquake nucleation process, precursory phenomena, and
1 DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofWesternOntario,LondonON,Canada.
E-mail:[email protected]
2 EarthSystemsScienceComputationalCentre,ESSCC,TheUniversityofQueensland,
St.Lucia.,BrisbaneQld4072,Australia.
3 PacificTsunamiWarningCenter,91-270Ft.WeaverRd,EwaBeach,HI96706,U.S.A.
450 K.F.Tiampoetal. Pureappl.geophys.,
space-time earthquake patterns, and has improved and enhanced earthquake hazard
quantification and forecasting capabilities. The focus of the 5th ACES Workshop, April
4–6, 2006, Maui, Hawaii, was not only to continue the highly successful ACES
collaboration, but to expand into studies of new satellite measurements, focusing on
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, and earthquake and tsunami
modelingandforecasting,whilestillconcentratingonadvancingandenablingmodeling
and simulation techniques and computational methods, including web services and
petascale computing.
Thisvolumeattemptstopresentthecurrentstateofthefield,inasamplingofwork
fromwithinthisbroadspectrum,byfocusingnotonlyonthemodelingofearthquakeand
earthquake generated tsunamis, but also on practical comparisons of the resulting
phenomenology. It also should be noted that work herein is indicative of both a broad
spectrumofcollaborativeearthquakeandtsunamiresearchandtheinternationalnatureof
the contributions.
Thevolumebeginswithavarietyofstudiesthatfocusonthemodelingoftsunamis
and earthquakes. These include both large-scale simulation and visualization programs,
as well as detailed models of small-scale features. Particular attention is paid to the
application of these techniques. Examples include the application of earthquake
simulations for the support of tsunamis warning systems as well as the modeling and
visualizationoftsunamisthemselves,theuseoffinite-elementmodelstoinvestigatemid-
crustal faulting, deformation and gravity, and the genesis of phenomena such as slow
earthquakes and evolving geometries. Several additional works discuss research into
particular computational techniques, languages, and hardware that can be used to
facilitatedataanalysis,visualization,andmodelingofboththeearthquakeprocessitself
andtheassociatedphenomena,suchasInSARdeformationfields.Studiesofforecasting
techniquessuchastheStressAccumulationMethod(SAM),thePatternInformatics(PI)
technique,andtheLoad-UnloadResponseRatio(LURR)follow,includingcomparisons
of their results with historic earthquake data. Finally, the volume concludes with
theoretical analyses of statistical properties of seismicity by internationally recognized
experts in the field.
Theeditorswouldliketopersonallythankallthereviewerswhoseenergyandefforts
were essential to ensuring the high standards of this volume—S. Abe, D. Arcas,
A.Corral,J.Davidsen,M.Davies,D.DePaor,G.Fryer,E.L.Giest,S.Gross,T.Hayes,
J.Holliday, L. Hood,A. Jime`nez, L. Kellogg,B. Kennett, L. Kettle, S. Kohen-Kadosh,
V. Kossobokov, P. Li, H. Muhlhaus, K. Olsen, P.L. Olson, J. Parker, R.Robinson, J.B.
Rundle, S. Samsonov, V. Sardina, B. Shiro, S.N. Ward, C. Williams, J. Weertman,
L. Wyborn, H. Xing and Y. Yang.
The editors hope that this issue will contribute to a better understanding of the link
between critical point phenomena and precursory seismicity and, in particular, the
premonitorychanges resulting from stress transfer in this correlated system.
Pureappl.geophys.165(2008)451–474 (cid:2)Birkha¨userVerlag,Basel,2008
0033–4553/08/030451–24 PureandAppliedGeophysics
DOI10.1007/s00024-008-0316-x
Finite Fault Modeling in a Tsunami Warning Center Context
STUART A. WEINSTEIN,1 and PAUL R. LUNDGREN2
Abstract—TheUSNOAA/NWStsunamiwarningcentershavereliedonearthquakelocationanddepth,and
scalar measures of earthquake size and slowness to assess the potential for the generation of a destructive
tsunamibyanearthquake.Recentearthquakes,suchasPeru2001,Sumatra2004andtheJava2006,manifest
some of the difficulties the warning centers face as they try to cope with unusual earthquakes. We have
undertakenastudyofasimpleteleseismicwaveforminversemodelandappliedittotheearthquakesofJune23,
2001inPeruandofJuly17,2006inJava.Syntheticnumericalexperimentssuggestthatthemostsalientfeatures
oftherupturehistoryofanearthquakecanberecovered.Furthermorethecalculationscanbeconductedquickly
enoughtobeusefulinawarningcentercontext.
WehaveappliedourtechniquetothePeru2001andrecentJava2006earthquakes.Ouroverallresultsare
consistentwiththoseobtainedfromotherstudies.TheresultsshowwhythePerueventinitiallylookedslowto
theUStsunamiwarningcentersandthattheJavaeventisatrulyslowortsunamiearthquake.Clearly,the
warningcentersstandtobenefitfromanincreasedunderstandingoftheearthquakestheymonitor.Furthermore,
betterknowledgeoftheslipdistributionalongafaultwillimprovetsunamiwave-heightforecasts.
Keywords: Finitefaultmodeling,earthquakerupturehistory,tsunamiwarningcenter.
1. Introduction
ThePacificTsunamiWarningCenter(PTWC)andtheWestCoast,AlaskaTsunami
WarningCentersaretaskedwithprovidingadvancedwarningofdangeroustsunamisto
the US, Canada and many other Nations within our areas of responsibility (AOR).
Collectively, this includes all US Mainland and Canadian coasts, US assets in the
Caribbean and Pacific, as well as many international clients in the Indian, Pacific and
CaribbeanOceanbasins.PTWCinformsitsclientswithinminutesofalargeearthquake
occurring in these areas of the location, magnitude and assessment of the potential for
tsunamigenesis.Aprincipledifficultythewarningcentershavehadhasbeentheinability
to predict the size of tsunami waves when they arrive on distant shores. Due to the
conservativepostureofthewarningsystem,thisshortcominghasresultedinunnecessary
evacuations.NOAA’sPMEL(PacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory)hasdeveloped
1 RichardH.HagemeyersPacificTsunamiWarningCenter,EwaBeach,HI,96706.
E-mail:[email protected]
2 PaulR.Lundgren,JetPropulsionLaboratory,Pasadena,CA,91109.
452 S.A.WeinsteinandP.R.Lundgren Pureappl.geophys.,
modelsandtools(SIFT)togivetheUSwarningcentersanascentabilitytomaketsunami
wave height forecasts.
The SIFT software breaks the major subduction zones of the Pacific into grids
consistingofelementsorfaultblocks100 kmalongstrikeand50kmdowndip.Whena
large earthquake occurs, the duty personnel input the hypocenter and magnitude of the
earthquake into the SIFT software. Further, they also select the blocks excited by the
earthquake. An elastic dislocation model is then used to compute the sea-floor
displacement. A simulation database, amounting to a numerical Green’s functions
approach is then used to quickly generate the wave height forecast. The length of the
ruptureandamountofsliparedeterminedbybasicscalingrelationships.Initially,theslip
is used forall excitedblocks.Clearly,this is not normallythe case,and there are often
complications with the rupture process that may render this source estimate procedure
inadequate,resultinginalessthanoptimalforecast.Forexample‘‘late’’earthquakeslike
Peru 2001 or bilateral rupturing can result in large forecast errors in the near field, and
significanterrorsinthefarfield.Theslipdistributioncanbefurtherrefinedthroughthe
inversion of monograms obtained by the DART network.
This study is a step towards the warning center’s use of more realistic source
parameters rather than prescriptions based on scaling laws that may be inadequate for
complex events resulting in forecast errors. We use a variant of the method used by
MENDOZA (1996) to perform waveform inversions in an effort to better characterize
earthquake sources. We have performed waveform inversions using only P-wave
broadband waveforms for the PERU (June, 2001) and the recent, JAVA (July, 2006)
earthquakes.Theseinversionsareperformedusingseismicdatathewarningcentersare
likely to receive quickly enough to beof use in awarning context.
Our results suggest that considerably more reliable source parameters than those
determinedusingscalingrelationshipscanbeobtainedwithenoughspeedtobeusefulin
atsunamiwarningsystemcontext.Theseparametersincludethedistributionofslip,the
sourcetimefunctionandlengthofrupture.Thelatterareimportantforuseindiagnosing
extreme events like Sumatra (December, 2004) and the so-called ‘‘slow’’ or ‘‘tsunami
earthquakes’’ such as the Java (July, 2006) earthquake. Tsunami earthquakes result in
tsunamis that are larger and more destructive than expected, based on the earthquake’s
moment (KANAMORI, 1972; KANAMORI and KIKUCHI, 1993; BILEK and LAY, 1999). These
typesofeventspresenttoughchallengestowarningcentersthatmustquicklyrecognize
them,especiallywhentheyoccurinthewarningcenter’slocalareaandwhereanurgent
warningmust beissued.
2. Numerical Method
TheUSwarningcentersreceiveapproximately150broadbanddatastreamsfromthe
GSN via the NEIC, ASL, IRIS and othervendors.Dueto the current limitations of our
communications, and a desire to maximize our coverage of the planet, we receive only