Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: A Multidisciplinary Study of Seismicity up to 1900

970 Pages·2009·64.341 MB·English

by  Nicholas Ambraseys

Earthquakes in the Mediterranean
and Middle East
The ability to predict future earthquake hazards in a particular This volume is an indispensable reference for all
region requires an understanding of seismic activity far back into researchers studying the seismic history of the eastern Mediter-
history – long before the advent of modern seismographic instru- raneanandMiddleEast,includingarchaeologists,historians,Earth
ments.Thisbookusesamultidisciplinaryapproachtoexaminehis- scientists,engineersandearthquake-hazardanalysts.
toricalevidencefromthelast2000yearsforearthquakesintheeast- Aparametriccatalogueoftheseismiceventspresentedcan
ern Mediterranean and Middle East and attempts to answer the bedownloadedfromwww.cambridge.org/9780521872928.
followingquestions.Whenandwherehavelargeearthquakeshap-
penedinthepast?Isitpossibletoassessthelocationandmagni- nicholas ambraseys was trained at Imperial College of Sci-
tudeofearthquakesfromliteraryandarchaeologicalsources?How ence and Technology, London, as a civil engineer, specialising in
canthisevidencecontributetoourscientificunderstandingofearth- soildynamicsandengineeringgeology.HelaterbecameProfessor
quakeactivity? ofEngineeringSeismologyandHeadoftheEngineeringSeismol-
Earlychaptersreviewtechniquesofhistoricalseismology, ogySectionatImperialCollege.Since1994hehasbeenaSenior
includingassessmentsofmacroseismicdata.Themainbodyofthe ResearchInvestigatorandFellowintheDepartmentofCivilEngi-
book comprises a catalogue of more than 4000 earthquakes that neering.ProfessorAmbraseysisaFellowofTheRoyalAcademyof
havebeenidentifiedfromhistoricalsources.Eacheventissupported Engineering,TheEuropeanAcademyandTheAcademyofAthens,
bytextualevidenceextractedfromprimarysourcesandtranslated andhasbeenawardedmedalsfromTheRoyalGeographicalSociety
into English. Most of these events are also evaluated in terms of (1975),TheGeologicalSocietyofLondon(2002)andtheSeismolog-
location, magnitude and associated physical and societal effects. icalSocietyofAmerica(2006).HeiscurrentlyVice-Presidentofthe
The area covered encompasses southern Rumania, Albania, Bul- EuropeanAssociationforEarthquakeEngineering,Directorofthe
garia,Macedonia,Greece,Turkey,Lebanon,Israel,Egypt,Jordan, InternationalAssociationforEarthquakeEngineering,Chairmanof
Syria and Iraq. The book documents past seismic events within theInternationalCommissionfortheProtectionofHistoricalMon-
that region, places them in a broad tectonic framework, and pro- umentsandco-editoroftheJournalofEarthquakeEngineering.He
videsessentialinformationforthoseattemptingtopreparefor,and istheauthoroftwootherbooksforCambridgeUniversityPress:A
mitigate the effects of, future earthquakes and tsunamis in these HistoryofPersianEarthquakes(1982)andTheSeismicityofEgypt,
countries. ArabiaandtheRedSea(1994).

Earthquakes in
the Mediterranean
and Middle East
AMultidisciplinaryStudyof
Seismicityupto1900
NICHOLAS AMBRASEYS
ImperialCollege,London
cambridge university press
Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,
Singapore,Sa˜oPaulo,Delhi
CambridgeUniversityPress
TheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UK
PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridge
UniversityPress,NewYork
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521872928
(cid:1)c N.Ambraseys2009
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithout
thewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2009
PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritish
Library
LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata
Ambraseys,N.N.(NicholasNicholas),1929–
EarthquakesintheMediterraneanandMiddleEast:a
multidisciplinarystudyofseismicityupto1900/Nicholas
Ambraseys.
p. cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-521-87292-8
1.Earthquakes–MediterraneanRegion–History.
2.Earthquakes–MiddleEast–History. I.Title.
QE536.2.M43A43 2009
551.2209182(cid:2)2–dc22 2009006710
ISBN9780521872928hardback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthe
persistenceoraccuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternet
websitesreferredtointhispublicationanddoesnotguaranteethat
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appropriate.
Contents
Preface pagevii
Earthquakerisk xii
Areaofstudy xiii
Anoteontransliteration xiii
Anoteonchronology xiii
Acknowledgements xiii
Abbreviations xv
1 Macroseismicinformation 1
1.1 Abriefdescriptionandevaluationof
documentaryandarchaeological
sourcematerial 1
1.2 Descriptiveandparametriccatalogues 4
1.3 Archaeoseismology 9
2 Evaluationofmacroseismicdata 13
2.1 Topographicalmaterial 13
2.2 Thevalueoflocalinformation 14
2.3 Fieldstudies 16
2.3.1 Coseismicfaulting 22
2.3.2 Transientgroundmotioncloseto
thefault 29
2.3.3 Faultcreep 31
2.4 Theeffectofearthquakesonlocalhouses 33
2.4.1 Vulnerabilityofstructures 37
2.4.2 Vulnerabilityoftheground:landslides 49
2.5 Assessmentofintensity 52
2.5.1 Earthquakeintensityscales 52
2.5.2 Lossoflifeinhistoricalearthquakes 55
2.6 Theuseofearthquakeintensity 56
2.6.1 Intensitydistributionandisoseismalmaps 57
2.7 Seismicseawaves 58
v
vi Contents
3 Catalogueofearthquakes 60 5.2 Frequency–magnitudedistributionand
3.1 Notesonthedescriptivecatalogue 60 sliprate 831
3.2 Descriptivecatalogue 62 5.2.1 TheDeadSeaFaultZone 832
5.2.2 TheSeaofMarmara 835
4 Evaluationofinstrumentaldata 815 5.2.3 TheGulfofCorinth 836
4.1 Regionaltectonics 815 5.3 Conclusion 837
4.2 Instrumentaldataandregionalseismicity 820
4.2.1 Locationofearthquakes 820 6 Futurechallenges 839
4.3 Thecalculationofmagnitude 823 6.1 Consequencesofearthquakes 839
4.3.1 Seismicmoment 825 6.2 Earthquakeprediction 840
4.4 Semi-empiricalassessmentofmagnitude 826
References 844
5 Long-termseismicity 828 Index 901
5.1 Distributionofseismicactivity:
qualitativeevaluation 828
Preface
Throughout the ages earthquakes have been one of the
most destructive natural hazards, if not to human life
itself, then most certainly to the works of man. Earth-
quake hazards are not always perceived to their full
extent. They have long been associated with crises in
humanaffairs,andtheyareseenashavingcertaineffects
or consequences that are rarely specified in advance
or fully understood. In a developing country of limited
resources and with investments concentrated in seismic
areas,theconsequencesofalargeearthquakeshouldbe
fearedasmuchasthephenomenonitself.
Theliteraryandfieldstudiesofancientandmod-
ern earthquakes show that people view differently the
challenges and hazards of their natural environment. In
historical times the damage and sudden crippling of the
economyofastateledtopopulationmovements,emigra-
tionandcrisesinpoliticalaffairs,triggeringinvasionsand
warsandeventrucesbetweenbelligerentstates.Theloss
oflifemusthavebeenconsiderablebutisdifficulttoesti-
mate. Also in modern times, particularly in developing
countries, earthquakes have caused economic and polit-
icalcrises,increasesintaxationandundesirable,though
necessary,borrowingfromothercountries.
Theaveragenumberofpeoplekilledtodayannu-
ally is certainly much smaller than the annual number
of persons killed by drugs, famine, undeclared wars and
motor cars. At the present level of technology, earth-
quakes cannot be prevented. However, subject only to
budgetaryconstraints,theirdisastrouseffectscanbemin-
imised. Earthquakes are destructive because man has
made them so by investing his wealth with a disregard
forthehazardsheknowsthatNaturemayhaveinstore
for him. This disregard stems from a variety of reasons,
the most important being simply the lack of awareness
andtechnicalknowledgetoalleviatesuchrisks.Another
cause is often the apathy of the populace, which is
vii
viii Preface
Figure1 Amapofworldwideseismicitybefore1851,determinedfromliterarysourcesbyMalletin1857.
probablyduetoignorance.Itwas,andtosomeextentstill ogy is vastly different from that of human history, so
is, not uncommon for people to accept earthquakesand some parts of the world may suffer violent earthquakes
theireffectsasactsofGodaboutwhichverylittlecanbe over a very short period of the geological timescale.
done. It follows, therefore, that, if we took account only of
The differences in attitude to earthquake haz- information about the last century, during which earth-
ards found both in historical and in modern times can- quakes have been recorded by instruments (and even
notbeexplainedintermsofthemagnitudeorfrequency thennotuniformlythroughouttheglobe),wewouldhave
of such disasters alone. It is the perception of the disas- no way of knowing whether an apparently seismically
ter that controls the attitude and stimulates awareness. ‘quiet’ area today is in fact at risk from a damaging
Forinstance,verylittleimprovementinbuildingmateri- earthquake.
alsandinmethodsofconstructionresultsfromanearth- A striking illustration of the value of historical
quakethatdestroyedordestroystodayremotevillagesin data,andoneofthegerminalimpulsesleadingustostudy
adevelopingcountry.Afteraveryshortperiodofenthu- thelong-termoccurrenceofearthquakes,cameprimarily
siasmforarestorationplan,theinterestofthefewcon- fromcomparingtwomapsofworldseismicactivity.The
cerned dies out. Apart from those afflicted, few in the first, Mallet’s map, Figure 1, was compiled in the mid-
countrywillbeaffectedandsoonthewholeproblemwill 1800sbyapainstaking,solitaryscientist,andthesecond,
beforgotten.Incontrast,thedamageordestructionofa Figure 2, was compiled in the mid-1900s, by a group of
capitalcityorofamajorengineeringstructureonwhich seismologists as the result of a worldwide multi-million-
theeconomyofthecountrydependswillstimulateacom- dollareffort.
pletely different degree of awareness. Here, the disas- Boththesimilaritiesandthedifferencesbetween
termayormightnotaffecttheeconomyofthecountry, thesemapsshowthattheformerwasanticipatoryoflater
but the strain will be felt by all, but again will soon be discoveries.Onecanseealmostalltheplateboundaries
forgotten. and seismic zones we know today depicted solely from
Since we cannot know what will happen in the historicaldata.ThedataMalletusedtoconstructthismap
future, to estimate likely earthquake hazards we have areascrudeasthehypothesisortheoryofplatetectonics
to find out what happened in the past and extrapolate that makes one look for such boundaries. However, on
fromtherealittle.Previousresearchhasuncoveredevi- thesamemaponecanalsoseeseismicallyactiveregions,
dence of destructive earthquakes in areas where only such as the Dead Sea fault and Eastern Anatolian fault
smallearthquakeshavebeenexperiencedwithinthelast zones(Figure3),thesebeingshownasalmosttotallyinac-
centuryorso.Thisisnotsurprising:thetimescaleofgeol- tiveonthetwentieth-centurymap.