Table Of ContentEARTHQUAKES
AND
SUSTAINABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE
NEODETERMINISTIC (NDSHA)
APPROACH GUARANTEES
PREVENTION RATHER
THAN CURE
Edited by
G F. P
IULIANO ANZA
V G. K
LADIMIR OSSOBOKOV
E L
FRAIM AOR
B D V
ENEDETTO E IVO
Elsevier
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In memory and to the centenary of Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok
Vladimir Isaakovich Keilis-Borok (31.07.1921e19.10.2013)
Contributors
Tahmeed M. Al-Hussaini Department of Civil Zhifeng Ding Institute of Geophysics, China
Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engi- Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China;
neering&Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh Key Laboratory of Earthquake Source Physics,
Giorgio Altin Ordine degli Ingegneri della China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
ProvinciadiTrieste,Trieste,Italy China
Bogdan Felix Apostol National Institute for Elena Dumova-Jovanoska Ss. Cyril and Meth-
odius University, Faculty of Civil Engineering,
EarthPhysics,Ilfov, Romania
Skopje,RepublicofNorthMacedonia
SethN.Carpenter KentuckyGeologicalSurvey,
Mohamed N. Elgabry National Research Insti-
University ofKentucky, Lexington, KY,
UnitedStates tute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG),
Helwan,Cairo,Egypt
Sudipta Chakraborty Department of Civil
Lihua Fang Institute of Geophysics, China
Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engi-
Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China;
neering&Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Source Physics,
Ishika N. Chowdhury BUET-JIDPUS, Bangla-
China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
desh University of Engineering & Technology,
China
Dhaka,Bangladesh
Hasan al Faysal Department of Civil Engineer-
Gian Paolo Cimellaro Department of Struc-
ing, Bangladesh University of Engineering &
tural, Geotechnical and Building Engineering,
Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
Politecnico diTorino,Torino, Italy
Shanghua Gao Institute of Earthquake Fore-
Carmen Ortanza Cioflan National Institute for
casting, China Earthquake Administration,
EarthPhysics,Ilfov, Romania
Beijing,China
Maria Rosaria Costanzo Department of Earth Mariano García-Fernández CSIC e Museo
Science, Environment and Georesources (DiS-
Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Madrid,
TAR), University Napoli Federico II, Napoli,
Spain
Italy
Alexander Gorshkov Institute of Earthquake
Mattia Crespi Geodesy and Geomatics Divi-
Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geo-
sion, DICEA, Sapienza University of Rome,
physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Mos-
Rome,Italy
cow,Russia
Melissa De Iuliis Department of Structural,
HanyM.Hassan NationalResearchInstituteof
Geotechnical and Building Engineering, Poli-
AstronomyandGeophysics(NRIAG),Helwan,
tecnicodiTorino, Torino,Italy
Cairo,Egypt
BenedettoDeVivo DepartmentofGeosciences,
HeshamHussein NationalResearchInstituteof
Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States;
AstronomyandGeophysics(NRIAG),Helwan,
Pegaso On-line University, Napoli, Italy;
Cairo,Egypt
Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China;
Maurizio Indirli ENEA, Italian National
Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi,
Hubei,China Agency for New Technologies, Energy and
ix
x
Contributors
Sustainable Economic Development, Bologna, Concettina Nunziata Department of Earth Sci-
Italy ence, Environment and Georesources (DiS-
Irwandi Irwandi Department of Physics, Uni- TAR), University Napoli Federico II, Napoli,
versitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia; Italy
STEM Research Center (STEM.id), Universitas Rapo Ormeni Department of Seismology,
SyiahKuala Institute of Geosciences, Waters and Environ-
Junbo Jia Aker Solutions, Sandslimarka, Sand- ment,Tirana, Albania
sli,Norway Giuliano F. Panza Accademia Nazionale dei
Changsheng Jiang Institute of Geophysics, Lincei, Rome, Italy; Institute of Geophysics,
China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China; Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze
China
dettadeiXL,Rome,Italy;InternationalSeismic
María-JoséJiménez CSICeMuseoNacionalde
SafetyOrganization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy;Beijing
CienciasNaturales,Madrid,Spain
University of Civil Engineering and Archi-
Jens-Uwe Klügel International Seismic Safety tecture, Beijing,China
Organization, ISSO, Arsita, Italy; NPP Goes-
Imtiyaz A. Parvez CSIR Fourth Paradigm
gen,Goesgen, Switzerland
Institute (formerly CSIR C-MMACS), NAL
Vladimir Kossobokov Institute of Earthquake Belur Campus,Bangalore, Karnataka,India
Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geo-
IvankaPaskaleva EPU,Pernik,Bulgaria
physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Mos-
Antonella Peresan International Seismic Safety
cow, Russia; International Seismic Safety
Organization, ISSO, Arsita, Italy; National
Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy
Institute of Oceanography and Experimental
Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva National Earth-
Geophysics, OGS, Seismological Research
quake Engineering Center e University of
Center, Udine,Italy
Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
(NEEC-UACEG),Sofia,Bulgaria Habib Rahimi Department of Seismology,
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran,
Efraim Laor National Research Institute for
Tehran, Iran
Disaster Reduction, Holon Institute of Tech-
Mehdi Rastgoo Department of Seismology,
nology,HIT,Holon, Israel
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran,
Andrea Magrin National Institute of Ocean-
Tehran, Iran
ography and Applied Geophysics e OGS,
Trieste,Italy Giuseppe Rolandi University Napoli Federico
II, Napoli,Italy
Elena Florinela Manea National Institute for
Fabio Romanelli Department of Mathematics
EarthPhysics,Ilfov,Romania
and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste,
Sebastiano Marasco Department of Structural,
Italy; Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,
Geotechnical and Building Engineering, Poli-
China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
tecnicodiTorino, Torino,Italy
China
Sokol Marku Marine Geology, Albanian Geo-
Leontina Romashkova Institute of Earthquake
logicalSurvey, Tirana,Albania
Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geo-
Kristina Milkova Ss. Cyril and Methodius physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Mos-
University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, cow, RussianFederation
Skopje,RepublicofNorthMacedonia
PaoloRugarli CastaliaSrl,Milan,Italy
Lalliana Mualchin California Department of
Farhana Sarwar Federal Government Girls
Transportation (Caltrans), Placerville, CA,
Degree College Quetta Cantt, FGEI(C/G),
United States; International Seismic Safety
Rawalpindi, Balochistan,Pakistan
Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy
xi
Contributors
Alexander Soloviev Institute of Earthquake Edward W. Woolery Department of Earth and
Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geo- Environmental Sciences, University of Ken-
physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Mos- tucky,Lexington, KY,UnitedStates
cow,RussianFederation Zhongliang Wu Institute of Earthquake Fore-
FrancoVaccari DepartmentofMathematicsand casting, China Earthquake Administration,
Geosciences,UniversityofTrieste,Trieste,Italy Beijing,China
Zhenming Wang Kentucky Geological Survey, Yan Zhang Institute of Geophysics, China
UniversityofKentucky,Lexington,KY,United EarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China
States
About the editors
GiulianoF.PanzaisformerFullProfessor graduation he joined Vladimir Keilis-Borok
of Geophysics, Trieste University, Head (at that time Professor at Institute of
SAND Group Abdus Salam ICTP Trieste, Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of
co-funded with Academician Vladimir Sciences) to work on pattern recognition
Keilis-Borok; Dr.H.C. Bucharest University; of earthquake-prone areas. Their fruitful
Emeritus Honorary Professor at IGG-CEA, collaboration lasted for decades. Professor
and Honorary Professor at BUCEA, China. Kossobokov has played a pioneering role in
Mr. Zhao Ming, Deputy Director CEA designandtestingreproduciblemethodsfor
of Department International Cooperation earthquake prediction, hazards, and risks
welcomedhimasMarcoPoloinSeismology. assessment based on global and regional
HeisamemberofAccademiaNazionaledei geophysical databases through exploratory
Lincei, Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze data analysis, pattern recognition, and
detta dei XL, Academia Europaea, Russian applied mathematical statistics. His funda-
Academy of Sciences, TWAS Academy, and mental contributions have led to formula-
a recipient of the EGU Beno Gutenberg tion of the Unified Scaling Law for
medal, AGU International award, Premio Earthquakes,tothelaunchin1992oftheon-
Linceo ANL, Central European Initiative going real-time intermediate-term earth-
Medal of Honour, Commemorative Medal quakepredictionexperimentthateventually
VAST, Medal of Honor NRIAG Egypt; fifth confirmed (with a statistical confidence
Class/Knight-OMRI for very high scientific above 99%) the predictability of the world’s
merits,andiswidelyrecognizedforhislinks largest earthquakes, as well as to better
to fundamental results in geophysics with understanding of climates in Europe and
implications of great interest for the com- solareterrestrial interactions.
munity. In 2009, he delivered the Lectio
Magistralis opening Trieste University Aca- Efraim Laor has a PhD in “Policy, Strat-
demic year, attended by Chamber of Dep- egy and Administration of Large Scale
utiesPresident.Hisresearchinterestsinclude Emergency Situations,” (Disaster Manage-
earthquake prediction and hazards, and ment) from King’s College London.
geodynamics, and he has an h-index (Sco- His work has encompassed short- and
pus, 2021) of 47. long-term strategic, operative, and tactical
planning, as a member of think-tank teams,
Vladimir Kossobokov is Past Vice Pres- which have formulated conceptions for
ident of the IUGG Commission of the “Emergencies and Battlefield of the
GeophysicalRiskandSustainabilitywithan Future.”
MS in Mathematics, Department of Me- He has a great deal of operational expe-
chanics and Mathematics, Moscow State rience, including as CO of the seventh
University gained in 1975. Months before Armored Brigade, IDF.
xiii
xiv
Abouttheeditors
Hehasbeeninvolvedinnumeroussearch Geochemistry at Pegaso Online University,
and rescue, relief and reconstruction mis- Napoli, Italy; Adjunct Professor at Virginia
sions in Israel and abroad, including re- Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA (since 2006);
sponses to and recovery from earthquakes, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China (since
tsunamis, floods, typhoons, cyclones, fires, 2016); Hubei Polytechnic University, Huang-
NaTech, HoTech, pandemics, nuclear di- shi, China (since 2019); and retired from
sasters, and civil strife. University Napoli Federico II. He has an
He has been an invited lecturer and key- h-index of 50 (Google Scholar) and 44
note speaker at numerous conferences, sem- (Elsevier Scopus/Mendeley). He is also the
inars, and training events. recipient of the 2019 Gold Medal Award of
He is also the Head and a Lecturer at the the Association of Applied Geochemists for
“GeographyofDisasterAreas,”Mastersand outstanding scientific contributions/achieve-
PhD Program, University of Haifa, and mentsinappliedgeochemistry;Fellowofthe
the Chief Scientist at AFRANdNational Mineralogical Society of America and Assoc
Research Institute for Disaster Reduction, Appl. Geochemists. He has been Chairman of
HIT. the Working Group “Inclusions in Minerals”
He is the Former Chairman, GoI National of the International Mineralogical Associa-
Steering Committee for Disaster Reduction, tion; Chief Editor (2007e16) of J. Geoch.
CEO of the “Fast Israeli Rescue and Search Explor. (Elsevier) and Geochemistry-Expl-Env-
Team [F.I.R.S.T.],” (12 units; 7600 SAR call- Analysis (2017e18). His research interests
outs), and a team member of the United include fluid and melt inclusion studies,
Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordina- volcanology, exploration and environmental
tion (UNDAC). geochemistry, and health. He has published
350 papers, 15 thematic books (Elsevier and
Benedetto De Vivo is currently Full Pro- EOLSS/UNESCO), 33 monographs, and
fessor of Exploration and Environmental seven textbooks (in Italian).
Preface
Ifyouarerightandyouknowit,speakyour When an earthquake occurs with a given
mind.Speakyourmindevenifyouareaminority magnitude M, the same generates a seismic
of one. The truth is still the truth. Mohandas
motion of the soil that certainly does not
Gandhi
dependonitssporadicityinthestudyarea.In
The book “Earthquakes and Sustainable this perspective, the anti-seismic design pa-
rameters must take into account the magni-
Infrastructure: Neo-Deterministic (NDSHA)
tude values defined according to the seismic
Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than
Cure” aims to communicate in one volume history and seismotectonics, as required
the“state-of-the-art”scientificknowledgeon by the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard
Assessment (NDSHA) approach, rather than
earthquakes and related seismic risks.
beingreducedorincreaseddependingonthe
Earthquakes occur in a seemingly random
greater or lesser earthquake sporadicity, as
way and in some cases it is possible to trace
foreseen by some people, adopting the prob-
seismicity back to the concept of determin-
abilistic approach (Probabilistic Seismic
isticchaos.Therefore,seismicity,apparently,
Hazard Assessment [PSHA]).
can be explained by a deterministic mecha-
Consequently,tomovefromaperspective
nism that arises as a result of various con-
vection movements in the Earth’s mantle, focused on response to emergencies to a
new perspective based on prevention and
expressed in the modern movement of lith-
sustainability, it is necessary to follow the
ospheric plates fueled by tidal forces. The
neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) to
polarized plate tectonics and the complex
guarantee prevention and hence saving hu-
nature of seismic phenomena highlight the
man lives.
need to avoid the use of overly simplistic
NDSHA dates back to the turn of millen-
models,particularlyfortheassessmentofthe
nium. It is the second millennium scenario-
risks associated with earthquakes. In a
andphysics-basedmultidisciplinaryapproach
perspective of prevention, coherent and
for the evaluation of seismic hazard, proven
compatiblewiththemostadvancedtheories,
reliable by 20years of experiments in many
it is essential that at least the infrastructure
countries worldwide. Scenario-based Seismic
installations and public structures are
Hazard Analysis (SSHA) and Maximum
designed so as to resist (or sustain) future
Credible Seismic Input (MCSI) are well-
strong earthquakes and continue to operate
established methods, which are part of
in their original capacity. An earthquake
NDSHAevaluation.
compatible with the seismogenic character-
It should be emphasized the importance
istics of a certain area, even if sporadic and
therefore labeled as “unlikely,” can occur at of the validity of one of the basic principles
of geology first suggested by James Hutton
any time.
xv
