Table Of ContentEarthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction
Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
VOLUME 12
EDITORIAL BOARD
Wang Ang-Sheng, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Beijing, P.R. China
Gerhard Berz, MOnchener ROckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, MOnchen,
Germany
Oscar Gonzalez-Ferrfm, Departemento de Geologia y Geofisica, Facultad
de Ciencias Fisicas y Mathematicas, Universidad De Chile, Santiago, ~hinle
Terry Jeggle, Secretariat for the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction, Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland
Cinna Lomnitz, National University of Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica,
Mexico, D. F. Mexico
Tad S. Murty, Baird & Associates, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Alvin H. Mushkatel, Office of Hazards Studies, Center for Public Affairs,
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
Joanne M. Nigg, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware,
Newark, DE, USA
Alexei V. Nikolaev, Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of
Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Paul M. Thompson, Flood Hazard Research Center, Middlesex University,
Enfield, UK
Donald A. Wilhite, International Drought Information Center, University of
Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Earthquake Hazard and
Seismic Risk Reduction
Edited by
SERGUEI BALASSANIAN
Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection,
Yerevan, Republic of Armenia
ARMANDO CISTERNAS
Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg,
France
and
MIKAEL MELKUMYAN
Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection,
Yerevan, Republic of Armenia
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, BV.
A C.i.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-90-481-5497-5 ISBN 978-94-015-9544-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-9544-5
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2000
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 2000
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ix
Preface
Acknowledgments xiii
Part I. Disaster Reduction
S. Balassanian
Seismic Risk Reduction Strategy in the XXI Century
Shirley Mattingly
Building Local Capacity for Earthquake Loss Reduction 13
Charles Kelly
Disaster Assistance in Cold Weather Conditions:
an Overview of Issues and Options 21
H Kitajima
Actual State of Technical Cooperation on Earthquake Disaster Prevention
Case Study: JICA Earthquake Disaster Prevention Project in Mexico 31
Kenji Okazaki
Radius Initiative for IDNDR a Practical Approach to Reduce Urban Seismic Risk 41
R. K. Shaw, F. Kaneko, S. Segawa, J. Sun
Urban Seismic Risk Mitigation in Asia: Examples From Radius Case Studies 49
A. M. Dixit, L. Dwelley-Samant, M. Nakarmi, S.B. Pradhanang, B. Tucker
The Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP):
Project Motivation and Description 69
A. Tarverdyan
The Role of the Subjective Factors in the Seismic Risk 75
Part II. Earthquake Hazard
Harsh K. Gupta
Major and Great Earthquakes on the Himalayan Region: an Overview 79
R.E. Tatevossian, S. S..Arefiev, HHaessler
Seismicity of the Spitak Earthquake Source Zone Vicinity 87
A. K. Tovmasyan
Southern Javakhet Earthquake Swarm. Stress Tensor Orientation
Derived from Focal Mechanism Data 99
vi
z., s.,
Smit P., Arzoumanian v., Javakhishvili Arefiev Mayer-Rosa D.,
s.,
Balassanian Chelidze T
The Digital Accelerograph Network in the Caucasus 109
M Tiv
Implications of the Duration of Strong Ground Motion: (Observations
from the U. S. Lorna Prieta Earthquake of Oct. 17, 1989) 119
V. Zaalishvili, 0. Sulaberidze, T Chelidze, 0. Varazanashvili, Z. Javakhishvili
Seismicity and Cultural Monuments of Georgia 127
V. Zaalishvili, S. Gogmachadze
Geomorphological Aspects of the Forming of Earthquake Intensity Effect
in Highlands 13 7
0. Kuranova, A. Odisharia, V. Zaalishvili
On Estimation of Dominant Vibration Periods of Site 145
H. K. Mkrtchian
A Major Neotectonic Structure Within the Arabia - Eurasia Collisional Orogen:
the Ararat - Araks Conjugate Fault System and its Possible Impact on the
Safety of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant 153
G. Gabrichidze
One Inequality of Elastokinetics and its Application in Seismology 163
S. Balassanian
Earthquake Prediction Research for Current Seismic Hazard
Assessment in Armenia 169
G.A.Sobolev, A. v.Ponomarev, Yu.s. Tyupkin
The Stages of Earthquake Preparation: Laboratory Experiment and Field Study 211
T Chelidze
Earthquake Prediction: Pro and Contra 225
A.A. Belyaev, V.A.Igumnov
Method of Analysis of Geochemical Oscillations to Earthquake Prediction 231
Ding Jianhai, Chen Xuezhong, Liu Jie, Huang Xuexiang, Sun Zhanao,
Yu Surong, Li Kaiwu
Earthquake Prediction Research in China: Zhangbei Ms=6.2 Earthquake
on January 10, 1998 239
E. Lagios
Intense Crustal Deformation Rates on Nissyros Island (Greece),
Deduced from GPS Studies, May Foreshadow a Forthcoming Volcanic Event 249
E. Lagios, G. Sideris, F. Zervos, P. Tsourlos, R.A. Nicholson, AI. Ponomarev,
B. Sa/ov, S. Ba/assanian, H. Petrosyan, S. Bushati, 0. Lika
Tectonic Early Warning System Through Real-Time Radon (Rn) Monitoring:
Preliminary Results of a Geophysical Method for Forecasting Earthquakes 261
vii
R.A. Movsessyan
The Results of Theoretical Researches of the Geodesic-Deformed
Herald of Earthquakes 271
D. Lungu, A.Zaicenco, A.Aldea, C. Arion, T Cornea
Seismic Hazard Zonation in Eastern Europe 281
A. A. Moin/ar, A. Naderzadeh, E. Maleki
A New Seismic Hazard Map for the Implementation in the National
Physical Planning ofIran 289
Part III. Earthquake Engineering
M Melkumyan
Ten Years After the 1988 Spitak Earthquake: Reconstruction and New Lines
of Earthquake Engineering Development in Armenia 297
J. M Eisenberg
The Lessons of Armenia-Spitak, 1988, and Other Recent Earthquakes
in View of Seismic Building Codes Improvement 301
T G. Markaryan, S. G. Shahinian
The Nature of Spitak Earthquake Occurred on December 7, 1988.
Reinforcement and Repair Technology of Buildings and Constructions 309
E. Luz
Some Structural Aspects of Buildings Destroyed in the Spitak Earthquake 317
M Tomaievic
Seismic Upgrading of Existing Stone-Masonry Buildings: Lessons From the
Earthquake of Bovec of 1998 325
E. E. Khachian
On Basic Concepts for Development of United International Earthquake
Resistant Construction Code 333
TMukhadze, 1. Timchenko
Analysis of New Seismic Building Codes of CIS Countries 345
T Saito
Recent Techniques and Regulations on Seismic Retrofit and Diagnosis
for Buildings in Japan 351
T G. Markaryan, L.A. Davidian
Some Main Principles of New Republic Codes on Design and Construction
of Seismic- Resistant Masonry Structures 359
F. Casciati, L. Faravelli, S. Podesta
Internet Availability of the Vulnerability Database 363
viii
M Tomaievic
Assessment of Damage and Usability of Earthquake-Damaged Buildings:
Experience of Slovenia 371
K.N.G. Fuller, C.L. Lim, S. Loo, M Melkumyan, K. Muniandy
Design and Testing of High Damping Rubber Earthquake Bearings
for Retrofit Project in Armenia 379
FuLinZhou
The Research, Application and Design Code of Seismic Isolation
and Energy Dissipation in China 387
L.A. Aghalovian
On one Approach of Studying the Free and Forced Vibrations of Bases
and Fundaments of Structures 395
V Renda, G. Verzeletti, G. Magonette, J. Molina, D. Tirelli, F Bono
Activities of the European Laboratory for Structural Assessment
for Seismic Risk Reduction in Europe 403
P. Keshishian, A. Der Kiureghian
Effects of Incoherence, Wave Passage and Spatially Varying Site
Conditions on Bridge Response 413
R.S.Azoyan, A.N.Sargsyan, T. G.Petrosyan
The Impact of the System of Ties Upon the Level of Seismic Effect
for Road Beam Bridges 425
L. A. Aghalovian, R. S. Gevorgyan
The Asymptotic Solution of Some Model Problems of Seismostability
Construction and Seismology 433
PREFACE
In 1998 Armenia was commemorating the tenth anniversary of the catastrophic Spitak
earthquake. The Second International Conference on "Earthquake Hazard and Seismic
Risk Reduction" sponsored by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and United
Nation's International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR) was held in
dedication to that event between 14-21 September (later referred to as Yerevan
Conference). The Yerevan Conference has been organized by the National Survey for
Seismic Protection (NSSP) of the Republic of Armenia.
All level's decision-makers (from the ministers to the local authorities), politicians,
scientists, leaders of the executive and legislative powers, psychologists, leading
businessmen, representatives from the private sector and the media as well as from the
International Organizations have been invited by the Armenian NSSP to take part in
joint discussion of the Seismic Risk Reduction Problem for the first time in the history
of such forums. Armenian NSSP's such initiative has been triggered by the experience
of the Spitak earthquake and other disasters. They showed that it will be possible to
reduce the risks, posed by the natural disaster, only through the common efforts of all
the community in co-operation with the International institutions.
The Yerevan Conference has brought together more than 400 participants from 43
countries and summed up the achievements and experiences of different countries in
disaster reduction since 1988, provided a deep scientific evaluation of Earthquake
Hazard, Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk Reduction problems as well as
discussed possible models and strategies for disaster reduction in the XXI century.
The Yerevan Conference has served for the UN as the IDNDR Regional
Conference for the countries of the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and
Central and Eastern Europe and played crucial role in the regional consolidation of the
achievements of disaster reduction during the decade and the projection of the risks that
the region will be faced in the forth coming millennium. It is noted in the Yerevan
Declaration adopted at the Yerevan conference that with the increasing scale of disasters
that experts project for the XXI century, scientists, local, regional and national
authorities and religious community leaders must come together in order to devise a
strategy for the prevention of the impacts of hazards on the population, vital
infrastructure and property. Particular emphasis must be placed on the protection of vital
social and economic infrastructure because these are intimately linked to the ability of a
country to function appropriately, for the guarantee of business continuity and hence
economic growth, and the potential of a country to prosper and develop. The subsequent
stressed that disaster reduction should be a major priority in regional, national and
international development and civil protection strategies.
While there have been notable achievements in natural disaster reduction during
the Decade, and while awareness of risk from natural disasters has increased
considerably at the global scale, there remain areas where loss of life and the
impoverishment of large communities continue to increase at an alarming rate. The
participants anticipate that the severity and frequency of natural and environmental
disasters, and their impact on society, will intensify in near future. The participants
reaffirmed the central importance of disaster reduction as an essential element of
government policy. Recent events and disasters have again demonstrated the need for
IX
