DTIC ADA544466: Analysis and Recommendations on the Company-Grade Officer Shortfall in the Reserve Components of the U.S. Army

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Analysis and Recommendations on the Company-Grade Officer Shortfall
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in the Reserve Components of the U.S. Army
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Analysis and
Recommendations on
the Company-Grade
Officer Shortfall in the
Reserve Components
of the U.S. Army

Catherine H. Augustine, James Hosek, Ian P. Cook, James Coley
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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Preface
A June 18, 2009, U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Com-
mittee report on Public Law 111-84 of the National Defense Authoriza-
tion Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2010 (House Report [H.R.] 111-166)
requested the Secretary of Defense to conduct a study of the company-
grade officer shortfall in both Reserve Components (RCs) of the U.S.
Army: the U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) and the Army National Guard
(ARNG). In response to that report, the Office of the Assistant Sec-
retary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (OASD/RA) asked the RAND
National Defense Research Institute (NDRI) to conduct a study on
the company-grade officer shortfall in both Reserve Components. This
monograph is intended to satisfy this request. As such, it addresses
the shortfall of company-grade officers in the USAR and the ARNG.
However, our recommendations for the U.S. Army could be applica-
ble to the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) and the U.S. Navy, which are
also experiencing a shortfall in company-grade officers in their Reserve
Components.
This monograph addresses four study goals. It explores and vali-
dates the magnitude of the company-grade officer shortfall in the
Reserve Components of the U.S. Army, concluding that the problem
is really a captain shortfall, and identifies recommendations to address
this shortfall. In making recommendations, the monograph assesses
whether the concept of a National Guard academy is a feasible partial
solution to the captain shortfall. It also assesses the impact of requiring
Officer Candidate School (OCS) candidates to hold a four-year degree
iii
iv Analysis and Recommendations on the Company-Grade Officer Shortfall
to participate in OCS. The study was conducted from October 2009
through March 2011.
This research was sponsored by OASD/RA and conducted within
the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National
Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop-
ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the
Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine
Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on the RAND Forces and Resources Policy
Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/frp.html or contact
the director (contact information is provided on the web page).
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures .............................................................................vii
Tables .............................................................................. ix
Summary .......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments ............................................................xxvii
Abbreviations ...................................................................xxix
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
Background ......................................................................... 3
Causes of the Shortfall .......................................................... 3
Problems Resulting from the Shortfall ........................................ 6
Summary .......................................................................... 8
Study Goals and Methods ........................................................ 9
Organization of This Monograph ...............................................11
CHAPTER TWO
Company-Grade Officer Fill Rates ...........................................13
Company-Grade and Midgrade Officer Fill Rates ............................13
Fill Rates by Unit Type ...........................................................18
Problems Resulting from Shortfalls ............................................ 20
Inventory Projection Modeling ..................................................25
Continuation Rates .............................................................25
Accessions ....................................................................... 26
Promotions ...................................................................... 27
v
vi Analysis and Recommendations on the Company-Grade Officer Shortfall
CHAPTER THREE
Affiliations and Accessions .....................................................33
Active Component–to–Reserve Component Transitions ................... 34
Commissioning Sources ..........................................................37
Reserve Officer Training Corps ...............................................37
The Officer Direct Commission Program .................................. 40
State Officer Candidate School Programs ...................................41
Other Sources of Commissioning ........................................... 44
The National Guard Academy Concept ......................................45
CHAPTER FOUR
Promotion and Retention ......................................................47
Promotion ..........................................................................47
Retention .......................................................................... 50
CHAPTER FIVE
Conclusions and Recommendations .........................................53
Fill Rates ...........................................................................53
Projections ........................................................................ 54
Policy Recommendations ........................................................55
Active Component–to–Reserve Component Transfers ....................55
Reserve Officer Training Corps and the Officer Direct Commission
Program .................................................................... 56
Army National Guard State Officer Candidate School Programs ........57
National Guard Academy ......................................................58
Promotion and Retention ......................................................59
Further Analysis ...................................................................59
APPENDIX
Unit Type Code Definition Table .............................................63
References .........................................................................65
Figures
2.1. U.S. Army Reserve Officer Authorizations Illustrated ..........14
2.2. Army Reserve National Guard Officer Authorizations
Illustrated .............................................................14
2.3. U.S. Army Reserve Inventory Illustrates Shortfall ...............15
2.4. Army Reserve National Guard Inventory Illustrates
Shortfall ...............................................................15
2.5. Army National Guard Unit Lieutenant Fill Rates and
Inventory Versus Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 ............16
2.6. Army National Guard Captain Fill Rates and Inventory
Versus Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 .........................17
2.7. U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Fill Rates and Inventory
Versus Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 .........................18
2.8. U.S. Army Reserve Captain Fill Rates and Inventory
Versus Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 .........................19
2.9. Army National Guard Major Fill Rates and Inventory
Versus Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 ........................ 20
2.10. U.S. Army Reserve Major Fill Rates and Inventory Versus
Authorization Levels, 2003–2009 .................................21
2.11. Changes in Fill Rates from 2003 to 2009 at the
Lieutenant, Captain, and Major Ranks in the Army
National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve ......................... 22
2.12. Proportion of U.S. Army Reserve Captain Slots Filled by
First and Second Lieutenants in January 2010 .................. 24
vii