DTIC ADA535602: USMC Enlisted Endstrength Model

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

USMC Enlisted Endstrenggth Model
MORS Workshop
PPeerrssoonnnneell aanndd NNaattiioonnaall SSeeccuurriittyy::
A Quantitative Approach
Working Group #2:
Models for Managing Retention
Molly F. McIntosh
January 27, 2009
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1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED
JAN 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
USMC Enlisted Endstrength Model
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
CNA,4825 Mark Center Drive,Alexandria,VA,22311 REPORT NUMBER
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S)
11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT
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12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Personnel and National Security: A Quantitative Approach (Unclass), 25-28 January 2010, Johns Hopkins
University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland. U.S. Government or Federal Rights License
14. ABSTRACT

15. SUBJECT TERMS
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF
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a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 22
unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR)
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98)
Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
Background
• This model is an adaptation of an earlier CNA model developed to
simulate endstrength changes during the 1990s force drawdown
• The model was uppdated for use in a pprojject examiningg various asppects
and future sustainability of a USMC force of 202K
– Predict future enlisted endstrength fixing accessions, or future accessions
fixing enlisted endstrength
– Scenario simulations (ex: change in continuation rates)
• In today’s session, I will demonstrate the model’s functionality and
present some results from scenario simulations
2
Endstrength Model overview: Projecting endstrength
Beginning inventory, FY09
Planned accessions
Continuation rates, FY08-FY09
FY09 FY10 FY11
Promotion distribution, FY08
FY12 FY13
Endstrength Model
Future endstrength by Average years of Average years of service
paygrade and years of service service by paygrade to promotion
FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111
FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13
3
Endstrength Model overview: Projecting accessions
Beginning inventory, FY09
Planned endstrength
Continuation rates, FY08-FY09
FY09 FY10 FY11
Promotion distribution, FY08
FY12 FY13
Endstrength Model
Accessions required to meet Average years of Average years of service
planned endstrength service by paygrade to promotion
FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111
FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13
4
Cost factors applied to the model’s projections
& cost factors:
BBaassiicc ppaayy
Housing allowance
Reetireemeent aaccccruuaal
Subsistence allowance
FFIICCAA
PCS
Medical care
Does not include costs associated with advertising, enlistment
bonuses, SRBs, and other reenlistment or separation incentives
5
Beginning FY 2009
47.5 % Accession survivors that are E2s
Modify Beginning Inventory 5.6 % Accession survivors that are E3s
.0 %% AAcccceessssiioonn ssuurrvviivvoorrss tthhaatt aarree EE44ss
Modify Pay Table
20.2 % YOS1 survivors that are E2s
Modify BAH Costs
72.4 % YOS1 survivors that are E3s
Modify Retirement Costs
4.6 % YOS1 survivors that are E4s
MMooddiiffyy OOtthheerr CCoossttss
3.9 % YOS2 survivors that are E2s
Modify Inflation Factors
55.2 % YOS2 survivors that are E3s
Modify Continuation Rates
Modify Initial Promotion Distribution
EEnnddssttrreennggtthh PPllaann MMooddee
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ((LLeeaavvee uunncchheecckkeedd ffoorr AAcccceessssiioonn PPllaann MMooddee))
Modify Loss\Gain Adjustments for FY
OOuuttppuutt AAllll SShheeeettss
MMooddiiffyy PPllaannnneedd EESS ffoorr SSeelleecctteedd FFYY
View Average Longevity
42 % Accession For First Half of FY SHOW COSTS
.88 Survival Rate For First Half of FY SHOW HELP
.9955 Survival Rate For Second Half of FY
HIDE HELP
Output Result
31400 2009 Accessions
QUIT
28000 2010 Accessions
3311550000 22001111 AAcccceessssiioonnss
34000 2012 Accessions
33000 2013 Accessions
6
Scenario 1: Force sustainment with high continuation rates
FY08-FY09 continuation rates are 3.1% higher on average than FY00-FY01
100%
90%
S
O
Y
all
s
s 80%
o
r
c
a
e
at
r
n
o 70% FY00-FY01 FY08-FY09
atia
u
n
nti
o
C
60%
50%
E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9
Paygrade
Assume continuation rates stay high through FY 13
7
Scenario 1: End of FY09, model ES meets planned ES
200,000
182K 183K
Predicted ES Planned ES
h 150,000
t
g
n
e
r
t
ss
d
n
e

d
e
100,000
t
s
i 86K 87K
l
n
ee

Y
F
-
f
o
-
d
n
E 50,000
3388KK 3377KK
29K 29K
16K 16K
9K 9K
4K 4K
3K 2K
0
E1-E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 Total
Paygrade
8
Scenario 1: FY11-FY13, model ES exceeds planned ES
119900,000000
Planned 181K enlisted
ES for 202K total ES 185K 185K
183K
182K
182K
180,000
h
t
g
n
e
r
t
s
dd
n
e

d
e
170,000
t
s
i
l
n
e

YY
F
-
f
o
-
d
n
E 160,000
115500,000000
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
9