DTIC ADA535381: Muddled Dawn. The Implications of the New Administration in Japan

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Muddled Dawn
Photograph © 2011, Museum of Fine Arts, Boston
The Implications of the New Administration in Japan
Colonel David Hunter-Chester, U.S. Army, Retired
ON 16 SEPTEMBER 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a
landslide victory in national parliamentary elections. For the first time
since its founding in 1996, the DPJ was asked to form a government, having
displaced the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as the governing party for only
the second time since the LDP was formed in 1955 (the first time, in 1993, the
LDP was out of power for only nine months). After the DPJ’s victory, much
ink was spilled proclaiming, or at least musing about, imminent, significant,
even strategic changes to the U.S.-Japan relationship.
Much of the controversy surrounded an agreement between the United States
Colonel David Hunter-Chester is
and Japan to remove Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma from its
currently an assistant professor in the
Department of Joint, Interagency, and current location in the middle of a crowded urban area in the southern part of
Multinational Operations, Command the island of Okinawa. In 2006, after years of negotiations, the United States
and General Staff College (CGSC),
and Japanese governments agreed to replace the MCAS with a new and smaller
Fort Leavenworth, KS. He served for
20 years as a Japan-oriented foreign facility on Camp Schwab, another Marine Corps facility in the northern, less
area officer, and he attended the crowded part of Okinawa. Nine months after the DPJ’s landslide, the party’s
Japan Self-Defense Forces CGSC
first prime minister, Hatoyama Yukio, resigned, largely over a contretemps
and their war college. He holds a dual
B.A. from the University of Nebraska- surrounding the Futenma issue. Japan ushered in its fifth prime minister in
Lincoln and an M.A. from Stanford
less than four years. Soon the ink was spilled again, this time declaring Japan
University.
ungovernable. Has there indeed been a new dawn for the Rising Sun? Should
_________
Americans be worried, as some pundits seem to be, about the alliance, or more
ART: Battle of Manila, May 1, 1898, recently, Japan’s reliability? Probably the questions most Americans would
As Seen by a Japanese Eye-witness,
ask are: Why should we care? Why do we still have troops in peaceful Japan
Matsuki Heikichi, Japanese, Meiji
era, 1898 (Meiji 31), September, more than 60 years after World War II? Why is Japan important, and why is
Woodblock print (nishiki-e); ink and
it unique?
color on paper, Museum of Fine Arts,
Boston. The Spanish-American War
led to an expansion of American Politics and the Bilateral Alliance
influence and power in East Asia and
The formation of a DPJ government in September 2009 was a new dawn
set Japan and the United States on a
collision course. for Japan, but the anticipated contrasts from previous administrations have
MILITARY REVIEW  January-February 2011 13
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Shadow Shogun. The archetypal backroom
political fixer in Japan, Ozawa had been the president
of the DPJ, and thus in line to become prime minister
himself, but he had been forced to resign due to a
misuse-of-funds scandal. Such scandals are an all
too typical feature of Japanese politics (Hatoyama
himself was under investigation for possibly
misreporting campaign contributions, while Ozawa
was being investigated for other suspected abuses).
Widely considered the real power behind the prime
minister, Ozawa belongs to a long tradition of what
some have called the “shadow shoguns.” This
appellation remains another status quo feature of
the DPJ’s ostensibly “revolutionary” administration,
though the shadow shogun stepped into the light and
ran against the current prime minister , Kan Naoto, to
try to regain the presidency of the DPJ. Had Ozawa
won, he would have replaced Kan as premier.
Aside from the appearances of traditional political
features, the DPJ’s policies would likewise hardly
suggest a revolutionary stance. Since its founding
in 1996, the party has had little if anything in the
way of an ideology. Its constituent politicians run
Navy the gamut from fairly conservative, former LDP
S.
U. members to leftist, unreconstructed refugees from
the defunct Socialist Party. The only thing in the
America’s long relationship with Japan began when Com-
modore Matthew C. Perry’s fleet visited Tokugawa Japan in past that has held this diverse set of political actors
1854. This visit alarmed the Japanese and helped fuel the together is opposition to the LDP. Whatever the LDP
subsequent Meiji Restoration and modernization of Japan.
The country’s sudden leap into the industrial age was aimed stood for, or was perceived to stand for, the DPJ stood
at saving the country from the same fate other East Asian
against. Salient among these oppositions was that
nations suffered under Western colonial exploitation.
the LDP was seen as too subservient to American
interests. By leaning too much toward the United
not really materialized. Hatoyama Yukio was the States and the West in general, the LDP helped
fourth prime minister in three years. Of the four— define the DPJ’s platform. The DPJ promised a more
three—including Hatoyama—are the grandsons independent security stance a and a greater focus on
of former prime ministers and the remaining one Asia in diplomacy and trade, a posture that appeared
was the son of a former premier. Thus, in terms of to suggest movement toward normalization. The
pedigree, Hatoyama was typical of Japan’s political LDP had begun supplying fuel to coalition ships
blue bloods, which should have been a clue to what early in the global struggle against terrorism and
the implications for the future would be. Further, had continued to push through two-year renewals of
the individual most often credited with engineering the mission. The DPJ promised to end the mission
the DPJ’s landslide victory was political strongman and did in January 2010. Rather than revolutionary
Ozawa Ichiro. Ozawa engineered the first breakup of changes, these positions and actions represent the
the LDP, in 1993, when he led a group of lawmakers slow, inexorable process of Japan’s postwar identity
out of the party. This, in turn, led to the LDP’s first crisis working itself out.
loss of power and to several years of political tumult Form and substance. Even before its electoral
as politicians formed, departed, and reformed new victory, as preelection polls began to consistently
political alliances (one result being the formation of indicate the DPJ would win, and win big, the DPJ
the DPJ itself). had already begun to moderate its policy statements.
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They began to stress that the U.S.-Japan alliance of Western, and particularly American, “me-first”
would remain a pillar of any DPJ-led governments selfishness. Japan’s social history has treated such
policy, and they mentioned the possibility of egoistic approaches to economics as poor form,
continuing the fueling mission, or at least finding morally and pragmatically oafish and uncultured.
some other way to contribute to the antiterror struggle This is not a political stance, but a deep cultural
(in the end, they have fielded no alternative). This one associated with the form and substance of
trend might have comforted some pundits had it not their values. Again, this attitude is as old as Japan’s
F been for an editorial of Hatoyama’s, translated and association with the United States—not new.
truncated for publication in the West, in which the This is further reinforced by the fact that many in
author espoused the need for Japan to focus more on Japan were and are critical of former Prime Minister
Asia in foreign affairs. Hatoyama was critical of the Koizumi’s attempts to enact market-oriented reforms
“unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial in the Japanese economy, the world’s second largest
capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation.” until mid-2010. Now Japan’s economy is in third
This remark did not reflect a sudden change in place behind China. Critics of Koizumi’s reforms
A Japanese attitudes, as some observers seemed to feared they would not only create economic winners,
think. Many in group-oriented Japan have been but also losers. They angrily wondered who would
critical of the individual-oriented brand of capitalism take care of the losers as they eyed the example of
espoused in the United States for decades. While I economic disparity in the United States.
have not made an empirical study, my impression, More autonomy. As aforementioned, Hatoyama
based on 15 years of living in Japan, and my also espoused the need for Japan to be more
experience as an academic and a retired foreign autonomous in its foreign relations, to focus more of
area officer focused on Japan, is that most Japanese its attention on an Asia that shared more of Japan’s
consider U.S.-style capitalism to be an outgrowth regional interests and cultural outlook. To facilitate
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Diplomats from Russia and Japan attending peace talks in Portsmouth, PA, 5 September 1905. The Russo-Japanese War,
which ended in 1905, revealed Japan as a new world-class power. At Mukden in Manchuria they defeated the Russian em-
pire in the largest land battle in history. Subsequently, the Imperial Japanese Navy crushed a Russian fleet for the second
time at the battle of Tsushima. These losses resulted in Russian internal destabilization, forcing the czar to concentrate
on fending off a revolution in 1905. The negotiated peace was brokered by President Theodore Roosevelt. His support of
the Russians was interpreted in Japan as an effort to undermine Japan’s burgeoning influence in the region and fueled
resentment against the United States.
MILITARY REVIEW  January-February 2011 15
the latter point, he floated a vague idea about forming to provide more civilian support on the ground in
an East Asian community. The U.S. has rightly stated Afghanistan in place of this fueling mission and has
that, as a Pacific nation too, it does not want to be pledged more financial support to Afghanistan.
excluded from an organization which could play New roles in security cooperation. During U.S
an important international role in the Asia-Pacific Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ meeting with
community. However, the notion that Japan should Japanese Defense Minister Kitazawa in October
have a more independent foreign policy is a common 2009, the defense minister said Japan would also
one in Japan and also not a new idea. The impulse look at a role for its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) on
to greater autonomy is common among other U.S. the ground in Afghanistan. Such a role would be a
allies as well (e.g., Japan’s attitude is reminiscent of big change in policy, but the Japanese have talked
the criticism in Great Britain about Prime Minister about it before, and caution has always prevailed.
Blair’s role as an American poodle). Even with the DSP no longer in the coalition—they
Hatoyama, like all previous postwar prime left the coalition when Hatoyama flip-flopped on the
ministers, continued his frank denunciation of promise to move the replacement facility for Marine
American capitalism by writing, “Of course, the Corps Air Station Futenma out of Okinawa—it is
Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the unlikely the DPJ will order Japan SDF boots on
cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.” This the ground in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, talk of it
pragmatism is a bow to the ongoing need for is significant as a benchmark in the evolving form
American power to steward the legacy of tensions of the alliance. Such a move, like that of Japan’s
in the area, and it would behoove the United States earlier cooperation, represents an incremental step
to keep this in mind regarding the bilateral alliance. in Japan’s (perhaps yet distant) normalization on
American presence is useful to Japan, in time and security affairs.
in measure with evolving expectations—and other The DPJ, under Hatoyama, had also said it would
countries in the western Pacific implicitly have a like to talk to the United States about the Status
voice in the situation. Clearly, Hatoyama turned out of Forces Agreement, and about the U.S.-Japan
not to be the radical some seemed to fear, and this agreement to realign forces in Japan. It particularly
need for pragmatism in the region certainly played wanted to readdress the aforementioned agreement
a part in that outcome. to move Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. The
What actually changed was more form than final point proved the most contentious, and led
substance. The DPJ had produced a coalition with to Hatoyama’s resignation. Hatoyama and his
two smaller parties, the Democratic Socialist Party, administration repeatedly sent mixed signals.
a rump of the former Socialist Party, and the New Before the election, he had said he favored
People’s Party, a party that stands against the kind removing the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF)
of market-oriented reforms former Prime Minister from Okinawa completely. These mixed signals
Koizumi championed. The inclusion of these parties should be understood in a cultural context as well
constrained the DPJ’s options and drove their as in the political one Americans see naturally.
administration relatively to the left, at least on the Hatoyama’s foreign minister, Katsuya Okada,
surface of things. While, the DPJ did discontinue originally favored scrapping the agreed plan to
fueling coalition ships in the Arabian Sea in January, make the FRF part of the already-existing Camp
that action has to be seen in context. Japan had taken Schwab in the less crowded, northern areas of
on this fueling mission soon after 9/11, supplying fuel Okinawa. He instead recommended consolidating
to coalition ships patrolling the Arabian Sea as part Futenma’s facilities and airframes on Kadena Air
of Operation Enduring Freedom to prevent the travel Base, just a few kilometers north of Futenma’s
of or support of terrorists. At first, Japan provided the current site. Later, Okada said this consolidation
free fuel to only U.S. ships, but it soon expanded the would be unworkable (something American and
fuel support to all coalition ships. Up until the time Japanese negotiators said years ago). The defense
it ceased operations, it had provided nearly half of minister, Toshimi Kitazawa, came out in favor of
the fuel the coalition used; again, all at no charge to abiding by the then-current agreement, signed by
the coalition. The DPJ has said it will explore ways the United States and Japan in 2006.
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F
A
er
nt
e
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al
c
ori
R al Hist
av
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U.
American battleships in the Philadelphia Naval Yard in 1923 being dismantled in accordance with the Washington Naval
Treaty. The five major naval powers—England, the United States, Japan, France, and Italy—concluded a treaty in 1922 to
limit the ongoing arms race for increasing naval inventories. At the time, battleships were the arbiter of national power
and status. The treaty led to the scrapping of major new weapons systems and the imposition of size constraints on
battleship tonnage. The treaty established a 5:5:3 ratio among England, America, and Japan as the three superpowers.
Although the treaty limited American production more in terms of capacity, this arrangement led to intense resentment
in Japan, particularly in the military establishment, and it helped lead to animosity between the United States and Japan.
D
Meanwhile, Hatoyama kept shifting his position. nine months into his tenure. Again, the cultural
The press reported he might give a decision to context here is important to understand, as this
President Obama when the two leaders met in resignation would be expected as part of the form
December 2009. However, when the President that delivered the substance of keeping the FRF
reportedly asked the prime minister to stick to the where it needed to be.
original government-to-government agreement, Hidden policy changes. Part of the dissonance
the prime minister reportedly replied simply, presented by these key players in the DPJ and
“Trust me.” In subsequent weeks, there were their mixed messages came from a policy the
additional reports of the DPJ administration administration actually did put into effect: the
looking at moving the FRF to somewhere in Japan idea that politicians, not bureaucrats, should be
other than Okinawa, or asking that it be moved out in charge of formulating government policies.
of Japan entirely. The Hatoyama administration Message discipline, for the most part, was very
said it would make a final decision in May. After strong under LDP administrations, but most
more delays, when Hatoyama finally said it would policies were created and managed by professional
be best to stick to the original agreement and bureaucrats in the various ministries. A big part
build the FRF on Camp Schwab, he resigned, just of the annual budget preparations, for instance,
MILITARY REVIEW  January-February 2011 17
always involved the bureaucrats coming up with politicians. Politicians in Japan do not have the large
detailed questions and answers to present to staffs politicians in the United States have. Most
politicians who would have to defend policies, politicians only have a secretary, if that, who does
and thus budgetary priorities, in the Japanese Diet little more than correspondence and administration.
(parliament). The bureaucrats wrote the scripts, Japan has the most rapidly aging society in the
and the politicians faithfully followed, but the developed world, the highest per capita national
government policy the politicians were purportedly debt, and a deeper recessionary trough than most
debating had been set by a council of vice ministers, of the rest of the advanced world. Expecting
the highest-ranking bureaucrats in their respective politicians, who, like politicians everywhere, have
ministries. The DPJ ushered in genuine change by to spend significant face time with their constituents
disallowing this weekly meeting of vice ministers. in order to get reelected, to master the complexities
Hatoyama also encouraged his subordinates to of these daunting issues without professional
offer their views. While transferring policymaking staffs is unlikely to work well. Given the scale of
power from bureaucrats to the people’s elected the problems Japan faces, changes once thought
representatives is laudable (though, again, not undoable must occur. Certainly, Japan’s handling
a new idea—politicians have discussed making of these problems will have ramifications for its
this change for years), one large obstacle has security posture and the bilateral alliance with the
been and will be the minimal staffs of individual United States.
avy
N
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U.
Sailors rescue survivors alongside the sunken USS West Virginia (BB-48) shortly after the Japanese air raid on Pearl
Harbor. The 7 December 1941 attack was the defining historical moment in 20th century U.S.-Japan relationships. This
single, carefully planned, and well-executed maneuver effectively removed the U.S. Navy as a potential restraint to the
Japanese Empire’s southward expansion.
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Harbingers of Change DPJ members, disillusionment seems likely to
The fact that the public wranglings of the DPJ continue and deepen. Kan is popular in the DPJ,
cabinet were about Futenma, an issue that has but his position has been weakened, making
known more ups, downs, and unexpected high- it even more difficult for his administration to
speed curves than the most daunting diplomatic achieve the lofty populist goals the DPJ ran on
roller coaster, is particularly troubling. The United last year. If the disillusion and disappointment are
States and Japan have been trying to solve this significant enough, another round of defections and
F
problem for over 14 years, and the latest troubles realignments in Japan’s party system could be on the
will only confirm for many observers what they have horizon, with one possible result being a realignment
pessimistically proposed all along, that the issue will into more ideologically cohesive center-right and
never be satisfactorily resolved. center-left parties.
So, the DPJ cabinet of Hatoyama looked in many This result is what Ozawa—considered the Oz
ways like its LDP predecessors, except for the party behind the curtain of the DPJ’s victory last year—
symbols the cabinet members wear on their lapels. As has been aiming for all along, a two-party system
A
is typical in electoral democracies, the DPJ in power in Japan that he sees as more stable and productive.
moderated the views it had espoused in the run-up to Though Ozawa lost in his bid to retake the presidency
the election. The DPJ has introduced a major change of the DPJ and become prime minister himself this
by curtailing the power of bureaucrats. Whether past September, dissatisfaction with the current
that is sustainable is yet to be seen. In addition to system may still lead to widespread dissolution
the issues mentioned above, the party has already and realignment in the current parties. If a two-
submitted a record budget woefully deficient in party system does eventuate, because of or despite
details—particularly the details of how to pay for Ozawa’s wily manipulation, Japan really will have
the massive spending. Without the bureaucrats, and a new dawn.
R without extensive staffs, one wonders who will work Meanwhile, Japan continues to muddle along. In
out these highly technical, yet absolutely necessary, the United States, we have to remember Japan is
details. not a majoritarian democracy, but a consensual one.
The Hatoyama cabinet enjoyed extremely One has only to look at the history of the expansion
high levels of public support immediately after of Tokyo’s international airport, Narita, which was
the election, but support began to wane almost held up for literally decades because a few farmers
immediately, sliding from over 80 percent to the refused to give up miniscule parcels of land. In the
20s by the time Hatoyama resigned. Prime Minister United States in such a situation, after a reasonable
Kan Naoto, Hatoyama’s replacement, seemed to time for negotiation, the government would have
D
have a surer hand on the rudder, quietly letting the declared eminent domain and the work on the airport
Americans know, for instance, that his administration expansion would have continued. The Japanese
would abide by the 2006 agreement to move the FRF government, which already had eminent domain
to northern Okinawa (albeit with some adjustments legislation on the books, instead worked for years to
to details). However, to his fellow citizens he then get the farmers to voluntarily sell their land.
raised the possibility of a higher consumption tax to In the municipality of Naha, Okinawa, the local
begin to tackle Japan’s public debt, at 200 percent government for the area taken up by Camp Schwab,
of GDP, the largest in the developed world. This where the U.S. and Japan agreed to build the FRF
move was not well received, and along with lingering in 2006, public opinion is split almost evenly on
disaffection for the Hatoyama administration, led to the desirability of building the FRF. This is going
the DPJ not gaining a majority in the upper house to make the eventual realization of the original
of the Diet during the July 2010 elections. (They agreement extremely difficult for any Japanese
maintain the majority in the more powerful lower administration, despite the fact that Kan has said the
house which brought them to power in the first place.) Japanese government will abide by the agreement
Given Japan’s daunting challenges, the sidelining with some adjustments, and U.S. and Japanese
of bureaucratic expertise without the creation of a officials have made progress in ironing out those
viable alternative, and internal differences among adjustments.
MILITARY REVIEW  January-February 2011 19
my
Ar
S.
U.
Wreckage of the Mitsubishi Ordnance Plant near the hypocenter of the bomb blast at Nagasaki, Japan, 6 December 1946.
World War II fundamentally changed the character of military and political alliances worldwide.
Costs versus Benefits of the the island acts as the gateway between Japan and
Bilateral Alliance China. Okinawa still sits astride one of the most
In the end the benefits of the alliance for both important trade corridors in the world. China is
parties still outweigh costs and annoyances. The increasingly brazen in patrolling near or even
alliance gives the United States strategic leverage through those waters. Okinawa will always have
it would not have otherwise. The exact location military forces; it cannot escape its geography. For
of troops—and to a lesser degree the mix of those now, in the big picture, it is better for both Japan and
troops—is less important than the fact U.S. troops the United States that a significant portion of those
are in Japan. A balanced force gives the alliance forces remain American, as Hatoyama realized only
more options, and the 3rd Marine Expeditionary too late. This latest round of diplomatic tension on
Force is the only U.S. ground combat force in Japan, Okinawa has mostly short-term implications. In
other than a Special Forces battalion and a Patriot the short run, Japan has damaged its trust with the
Missile battalion. For Japan, U.S. presence has Obama administration. At a time when the rise of
helped ensure more than 60 years of peace with its China is changing not only the regional but the global
neighbors. Japan has only had to spend an average international system, Japan is in danger of making
of less than one percent of its GDP since 1960, the itself less relevant in the long run.
lowest average cost of any industrialized country in I have always thought of Japan as America’s “and”
GDP terms. If the Marines, or the air wing, leave ally, because of all the proclamations that say America
Okinawa completely, and especially if the aircraft will work with “Europe and Japan,” or “NATO and
do not redeploy somewhere else in Japan, Japan will Japan” to accomplish some mutual goal. Japan,
likely have to increase its own forces on the island, extremely sensitive and even allergic to domestic
at a higher cost. military capabilities and action, has, for the most
Okinawa first came under the suzerainty of an part, preferred to contribute economically to these
important samurai family in 1604 precisely because endeavors (though the Japanese Self-Defense Force,
20 January-February 2011  MILITARY REVIEW
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since 1992, has participated in many peacekeeping opposed to “comparative advantage,” was coined
and humanitarian operations, even sending air and to explain how a country like Japan, with basically
ground troops to Iraq between 2004 and 2006). Yet no natural resources and thus no comparative
Japan itself has bemoaned the tendency of other advantage, could do so well in terms of generating
countries to see Japan as an ATM machine when wealth. What gave Japan this competitive
it comes to international contributions. At a time advantage were things like the vaunted Japanese
when China has passed Japan in GDP to become work ethic and Japan’s education system.
F the second-largest economy in the world, even this Japan still has these advantages, but the country
self-consciously less-than-desirable, less-than- has lacked leadership and vision. Gerald Curtis, in
honorable role of international bank teller may his book The Logic of Japanese Politics, proposed
shrink in significance. that Japan’s economic success may have tempered
Japan can bounce back from these problems. In the desire of Japanese citizens to “throw out the
the 1970s and 1980s many thought Japan would bums” in the Diet and engender real change.
continue to grow richer, overtaking America to Even with the long sclerotic economy dating
A have the largest GDP in the world. People were from Japan’s speculative bubble bursting in the
predicting this century would be the “Japanese early 1990s, the older generation could remember
century.” The term “competitive advantage,” as steady improvement in its standard of living. An
amazing 90 percent of Japanese
people still consider themselves
middle class. Yet, dissatisfaction
with the LDP finally grew to the
point that people were ready
for an alternative in the DPJ.
R So far the DPJ has not lived
up to its promises (not that
any party could have lived up
to those particular electoral
fantasies). A new political and
economic direction in Japan
seems inevitable—such change
will also inevitably mean some
revision of Japan’s military and
D
security relationship with the
United States. Japan still has one
of the best-educated work forces
in the world, and the Japanese
have shown the capability to
produce leaders when they need
them. The consensual politics of
Japan will always involve some
muddling, but to take on Japan’s
problems, the Japanese need
decisiveness, vision, and real
leadership. Otherwise, Japan,
America’s “and” ally, may
become less than an afterthought,
D
O
D as it muddles along, diminishing
U.S. Army truck is loaded aboard a landing transport ship at Saebo Base, Kyushu, international trust and its own
Japan, 10 July 1950. Japan has been a staunch ally of the United States since
relevance to the system. MR
the Korean War.
MILITARY REVIEW  January-February 2011 21