Table Of ContentAnalysis of Shipboard Firefigh t tmiynanceegng-TeAi- ctginnfeifgsEiUlletnI
Simulation
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I. NOITCUDORTNI
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1
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1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED
2002 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2002 to 00-00-2002
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
Analysis of Shipboard Firefighting-Team Efficiency Using
5b. GRANT NUMBER
Intelligent-Agent Simulation
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
Naval Postgraduate School,Code CS/Rp,Monterey,CA,93943 REPORT NUMBER
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S)
11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT
NUMBER(S)
12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
2002 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (CCRTS)
14. ABSTRACT
15. SUBJECT TERMS
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF
ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON
a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 15
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ecneref f.dime de d s<lrnh n (boe c oyofmfrdin rm oae taep oteimrhycIsfre tbeiossrcfsi"eaps
gn i nd dnonseaiens tmotar ncmi nbo "oaothe fs) cicree>sediehvntrnh ftiocow,fgiac>itftdcsai<l
yl iee rb le y atbtodl e. snaatnpehlrl ns etaphtaolteeersato tioechrg awnwetuertncheeTpbo
dedne mn moly,oiectt ecatrauibd ee mhn tmodiiltucoah seb e htt n tayst roreamonsposmeoicten
emv elhsloc tbsrtioaa.r etpysnneamom
tsttn tas eneschuesi r natmbe eoe ;ofratfwn)i(paea nttbco oisdeidht ntcn oa oschiaecthracpEa
.")>st cafe-cn n oeOdisete iihef dtri yn ac,bose>ctpnec soran ipfoft<iocta i<ed(h ntmorcoefrp"
. e ese em l m snu odsa e o:tore c ntf,mncd citmreesaceoaeeeatootbia nsbghfcsFafsontatidashc
") >tsctacfa fs -i,,d>den edo nsdisouatni< cot taiieea< tdmsh(,inootedochuncetrotb tcsnoapdda"
") >tsctacfasfi-d e,t>enl oednidnot<a icrtaoi<f d(e nhsott ccte,taamesfhosotclpea ebfateled"
d nyes o e dthidvsnc ttnnteaeoiaoctfdbdceninffisoofcet snoop iedttn iea.dldneeodscut sopddA
) sdn notaii t ",ish n dicro nn eueieoaosusgtrncar ncit tsoafs"il "o tapd"uednyo rdarsaaei"(taw
. n"oh is)t isc unarygo oy eniofeehitsvhTtilntxdaoenc"octs ospe eie trr" eaattldeaenshdut(ob
5
s netorhetu tg tr rnee"o ehsrfeh t uogwoee o atrh slhm et,ifcashsudatts"c etfnfeedneped-etats
g .neeihrhtisfiug n eir rtefoxwffeooepb
.s]n1o1i [ta ltunnmeAigsa- ittn les u gnm mtioglili i lfltfdeeeao ahwtlgrtnunaimipitshgiferiF
tn etgnielgl a eestrin a ni whomy,t tio,ftinnoawo otsidtp tnatuaadn araenemapeoco ncfaohnea
s l meaternct aoes.n lsswijy]ihtamtttbs7cnren fao[ieeteeothgvsgrsu waeyaap-ssmiotcluM
deymbro fy rl .el sxs paebelr urol aie sajp,oevtumd ghe coln ntioacraeIhtromhcewutathni
sei tdei erlltaiaibu madesoipisltlav u aci.aeu dtcmdlnneoiaiebsvrly,tiesxdvu eneoisgolanA
, eett aa dhni,nt iteai sdo twrtrgeaenoen che ono titgmcnnnoaeoieunttgma samey-ohsicttlum
de hs ys tnbinne laeenp cgwomeatiobetcbaczai n . onser olvhdiaecnt oinacghya csreaehtTni
.no isn tlr sa oe g lccven nlso ioohiseatcrntgtd eeinoouonfgwcetfmreoatogomPssesarosbpcem
,s m rs.oinn n oagili h not e cirulgfert cad omonfte nen toonxdrlAssiceenewtangatoihoannmik
sr,,e essikghdd grntord eoiohontt wvtwaiaslerwomto ssnw-ko mh,e slorbt ooeirkvpaamheb
gn i stseh ihgrhsi otife flehrp rtems i hoi rfntcs eeiecys. v dgaldsseoroanltitotneaiha- ocsganaeM
t nren oigefd ih eyst,rresgad rns. oisnai eove ciavs eth it na entny lobaceleuscagevmleAraiaruhsp
.sm et tnseygrs a oAt -e ei nt ir ecveenstisevnamgetlfiliihia giuptsetnfa mmcb-aofaaloxeaerer
)gn i r s h do: isslselh diansec 'nucoa dun t sogiiboosoristpntttm(eansiach eetmatagrxeoaehtam
stnev.e) raee(lvboihsssaolpf
.III DLEESDOOPMORP
A. NOITALU MDIESSOPORP
.roi v md aehoeehrtdsmeoinao bMwa bsdre-e rtse enorshe palggoeanrdipotmhgi feehrTif
e n me,acreset tdnneac m:mnoocit a d sl. e n tu] nd rienm1eii xu rei [rviosegseaoslharriTapated
dn nl an.au dmaeiodnemrccnaseiia olfrs hz tt,zecnnoheeanTl gme,aensaomhe l,zrzeodnael
.e l lgpman oaritr seeetnehaptvhe bchegsf.m a sie olelEarfreemleephvitret ekei rlsmfsairhaTp
”r e ,tdh”ancewat k ea,osd w”me“n“hsc oseneiidehtu “ut agfl,rnof ”ui nspdteinixhouetiq“tec“a
.s ng osn e iniess ,tot snu”ci heeoagategvh icnariatttei rafhncbheu eaA shdrrttatoirslffoofpmemri
e ns sea e dogenlenhnmobraw aiaaf mrti oaocrtdn annudv eafehd rmcnoeuietr shpaeswebadni
,rev e,wnoo higtnciahsiu gn. no efi ietott tha xnat tee er, shdru teT nrd,nheaunethcog tiaethcta
r.so dd if ,enn voee neoeahrsliphhtial aetefieldbwbpxe
B. HTWO REGR IFLFOED OLMACITAME HAT AM
n.o] i8nt[ o a ind leelytier uhrl ln cufmTiilneeioiifwaotbtst itoidcaneevp is teeenchreeTigrfa
en ei.hm tt renlele l tbmei e at d w edetmrdisn vhimanswi aoTmap inoafbilmakirtoalfogrnceic
.esed chi d it ssa ntdnleyleeec niorrlrhhaeaopaiitT tptsswf efys sdroteeunichhafettn
tlnie tmhssentcstr hur iiremta.u atapttgothemintsg tsoiifcatfo xeheri cf eo dltWee pssamuis
h l . tt trsee]fnweeeaoedk2oeorhhhfmo i [gritttumll eaagfse -ersdschiaoiiTfmmaedipe
hs cestl eabdlca nbm enaam ehomahht tim lc taftadfiti roclenhnwenfni wuhunrfotfiuombanu
setm raene .s uhtornn )eettiiartenedhafcuuhot utebotia llf( treeceeihdnrhnToiitgmf(i
, )dyemnrce aanty t oitan t i efdihl. , mo encinttsen nuabiouilrtreianoeuiutgnbbsaaucbmoc
g nsin r oauei dr td imanefouar r ti. mfo cfesotteured uvlitn noaff aao-hdrrine ntrhhaiuTtnbogBi
6
s e tl. eyabhnn mnit r osiat wefe fiitsnoroteot u erithcabdhgfatnme Wpuonrfcr eufbbomnuun
gnih s s disige ueni ,gs irytnadner luie nob atlotreai ecuaxchtetoreeetiha-etdntrnnagreriugb
.gn ih sf ieIdu h ng elt, rnenh dgls eeo pi tffnrienhbmeteoooaaksitmadxhbhsaeeetcemtrcni
y,ll l ue ao nfhe ug hostrlttsi silnu itsefieoo ucicwvse gace(re nuizllisfilatsiu.xwq)ee0
sy ye l tlttdnsrniueeraonbthfepgc wovie a(o psehlxwrsa e oiais nerfltwleuhgfroerTaldiplofam
sr e .sv,lao )lhldsesan ewat al lohb nf ttaheyomtpaBmi pmaw)aaldhfennir ut bcenahutt(ni
gn ie she atz,ei srsf neci aotereclnty.ilribbaiboripif ts s e turtlcbeilamvnato ogncAlhiiastaoltf
ytfiol i.byal bkeo chrs yiTpeo orulgoreqbteviztsu bdmeonc rr uefb bongemunhu itndknaam
e rc ee n,nf rv senood uoni roinf et hi e ritaoahaesehaug ctrhazt ce,n etlifcreuepfsoorfhmiteft
s erleb banm mo.ufmenoarliffni
sni atlctn eined rdtomaeoosct erfma r .sriheadsipfchpr w soTmaeostoo s lascbeolphpoitpfhusS
yn,to) i i0ett t(hnaey aCtamtestui ilm nqt,at bene0nCati m ami(ees.u mhli)qfatp0olm0fi1ni
l a , i;otet tse rae nllsoplr eaunsboesgafheimtrmp a yltety lfe maee lnLsuhhrlaiusttalusaqae
.sset tn lnr i onbeoen eioa sfruht mre e i tatmettref e)raaboepmfhtelmnLiot(;dfuetXtinndsinoc
ehl tbr iaessw ibui0srmohiauutvnn iatnoc £ X(t) £ n ed,hnXta=) 0h (tsXit wr .ae) t r0esi(hfCT
s dl aisetm rne ly.putes sirusaom eennto aI etnyrloliu lf meanirursitufnb etvueoeht(
ytili bfiotsu bemho.tc) d mesetetsmiuoachexbe
c i ,m)sed udedo ivni spoat,eemcel eelbdRfb meniaeb Itsig p erneeRrci hcIsdeTsSearudeiSrf(ps
;.eh]et2 s l[ca i eyldehgb nlouablpaomi m m r)datel etel edefenb(sfeLidobimXunhpouitemn
st snnee teor leimitblne fai bulet,i elsttd b usnta)/ bu aemt /mbrlm(eo me aCbceobflhcmoftunni
.sel bitp nesAct snsue ess dve)nirtat p(cdseCeetr fnntnre aius y be)rc.nrtoitup(em eXhenrtdIipe
s tn rn r do e; u ee femts btlneleue a ubr lilomdgtbauniheonnimbeh wcaimhtwsenatiibrlufbni
. scletie l ntdr bee soo ralmimfeembenhb malitmfa me muol e mArnfyteaenairltimnofegmndii
set gnneaseor rimireeeforvlioefc
+ ) t ( X = ) h + t ( X l )0(C/)t(C)t(Xh - m )1.3( )t(Xh
s nd,o nhiee otthhwcg itt eentnensengr r eiis ter fttsrrmenseurhe rHcets ni tetofeerhdhpgiteisrr
d enlyci aluoe v edther ,te tmesh a r.ite didttnlendr uibraeieoaamhhn mmttre miuc)abntli(fSCni
,d )aot et (er heCrp)etvishwiaf+wht(C
- ) t ( C = ) h + t ( C l ) 0 ( ) C 2 / . ) 3 t ((C)t (Xh
noi td.i e s teltss yes eaeae lpomdhch lmpoototaaopdmr ccunpdi Sa atnreesa r riceieplbFrsaoemr
na i )ss"sut ulf ca p i miGhd rnrt teedeesyd wtr"et iansoni(wnncaareftaiegs ecmd eebrarbepteerd
.stne ml:eanrmecrhnoTin/
X )h+t (= X +)t( l h X (t)( C /)t( C (0)) - m h X (t)
+ ó [ X ,)t( C (t)] Z (t) – ó [ X (t), C (t)] Z (t) (3.3)
l l m m
d , nenheohathctegte m nsteenrr eitsrfstr n ue temcressr e h reen htteirtoewhdfphgietisrr
l, , ahth e ttu threnw oelwtiheod-haorftmrrnttru egirngoerhuef hctbmntneairecmni mod neahrt
m ol, d ah h mnem ttm teoahoenwrlfrdrt dheoeai infntmrttf mfaoaegnerrrr ehecfmtt noeeirhctni
burn-out. Z d)nta( Z s ehl tbmndiaoaewidetrnmuaab v0riyrl tltsani med)rdton (neepreadni
l m
e c ,nd1a nidarn{aav Z )t( } dna { Z tsn ee) cdttn n(nefeeuop dqe} nedyesn lpieleradauntium
l m
gs nenila v bemanamoh ai d0eirdncsa eansvd traun.uiaa1br Giayrvlt lsaic didetnhnaTedi
e ndsdie melm feicany:o tfe lalotiidefcrtc dhnaaeoteltbmninumiis
C )h+t (= C –)t( l h X (t) C (t)/ C )0( –ó [ X (t), C (t)] Z (t) (3.4)
l l
erehw s [ X (t), C (t)]=( l h X (t) C /)t( C (0)) 5.0 d na s [ X (t), C (t)]=( m h X (t)) 0.5
l m
7
n oniitau te ctmfuooil Ndfanar X de t yneebeuvs li e, fatare)ovipvtsei (ortspiisop Z (t), this must
l
, lnao ii drtn eeai nnt uearaetheumvctmb iunatluafgen C ev i ms ttr at eas eehaahga.tthtel)otntN(
nhggiusohtla Z ) tn(a c se.rtbn eogfhoio th s isyyerr r e ata ov esIdet otksnrsaaeuuihmcostebn
l
e c,a sler pwutecorco oh;s srfneioviot aeucqneer e g fe nnrf hoieuittdshcdouwcno X (t) or C y)bt(
yeru aledah nvt0uob ro.C
ytiliba bloarn po.irte iv doenhh os T l c ad was rle3o tnodo fi.l4ootnfnf3l.t iaaia3etcdbaoumqE
eem ri to tdfseeirbr urscea cv hro o eethnmv aseiooftavthnol isfagalf j [ X (t), C saeir e .h f]tI)t(
ne h,trevohsalf X (t+h)= X (t)+ C )t( dna C )) 3hs .+n=3to((i t0 anr ue e.qhev e trofsehI ihsotanlf
noi t . )c ede4ndher.unTsa3fau( j hytlilwacinot oens oanme e rossctoinhic X nseaire htta hots
yt iglnii b srafaebo evoggror ennchphriins tustia li tanleawhaeefrctrrsiogeceflnpnremipreettrs(
s .ef)loep smiarxE j er a j )t -( =(–p1x[e g ( X (t)(C– C ,] )e)r tCern/h ea)wevt)hostthn(soaclf
parameter g d n,sa1i j )=t( X (t)/(100C).
rd, a el ldle dheoneaihres dtedemte mieesohorimeuuhhimWmpsrrsgtt s oisngsffainitixeeb
. etentu n to ao en osai r- dtosiirt enenai e t iwhrhart fudcaneTutieolengnbnhag uigtvnhfiathicw
fo eh tn odiletotianrgi l sn lo flieSoi th kfamtesotahnetetse rlpaecrir eemvui n tdcne ajabus
dlO
. n ,eg o rhstnr tieec l aieeathtuelerhwhhit ashihsottnret ktilgeresu ibgggn mrnifeaiomhtcxe
We use l = ( l :l edl v elyeetiblhck tesyfl f r) ap a) x- lSee (ti0t.sum1aioir -s newrheuTnb
weN dlO
m = ( m ) exp (S).
weN dlO
C. SES SGEN CIGOTNRHIPG LIFEFODEORMIF
ecnegil lleatincii fsmid o togrgrhnfn atiiee tnwmeh nsgrauiol fip n lev oineraeTadihhmofetumbh
.d eeem cnr snio e nemffhoourrottiqeete tp c.sAe g aedtnst sieahinb tc lnifsasaroetlccpsaefd
esern reoshteyih inc rsafwr toueaim osaishtrlrfact(t speueoilmdohldao otnicemothciTni
ts neue ,lod otr) aiide-aoe eitsnhnrfnehrinatr ihteni unzttge boaainmigmiotago imnrrneoumma
h css iae0h wl0wr, b 1 ( o)rae tefsumhyspn omtte y ufaiet,tfr oltrtoefninhnafetiumqtrapmoc
. ) lo.t eeed lrgo.n eprne,ie. ngo ebyiak awzeel,.dz tFof(rabeni,mo ii (as cs rft,deoi)nhndati
ee d he im ntte s r 5lna aren hsa).ia h dv ozi ngtls1 tttseirmioiuiangnsictu(stouiueiconrbttaeon
compartment.
,)s r a,edhntn anariemoccmior ct,cnee lm,eenseomhe l,zr z e eeotdenrnnate ieeachfglmsc(aianEa
-s n sea.ts ernuemoe sigeva hadTheetbcerid- l ,e aydvooe eas ghlvh ctaeoi oitfeghibc caaeps
.setdi r ae s o ushio yttngnwpts hl n eiau docaneyhf lca ndanegetepcyeEahahroawtanwout
.t se mn rtneoo s iu ahriee t fcoltftns ,e nnnetpcoodsv eaeAxaonlisevcgehaattbeacociigahca
d te g uv s fnt,be elsiis i)itrat(tardhoaoii hoecng agva e,wne s fl) iielsidkaohrat(isdcaoia(agt
yltn et c stnetsa aernaeehe ehl vtbg g, i ne antt.ihnoic)htaiaotc td o a pnh lte cnuAteaimsheits
s r sde eteg n. c etgdt enonagaie nnhatadri eseaWlhptfd ligpcui e tdacynniiebe apkecsabwa
de vy n ib.hse setc rvttciuseii resadgrorropoer
t sg esne gi ih;n ttt"oenislheartgw oa t t endc n lee atosbgih"ei aiafcstfhs iacosacEaoepps
e r sidonn u esooeqd nlii hee.fga ttetrteiincc ral saaatocbesh nmiana telloesgpimiamaoovSca
namelz zeeohl ntie hsed nwohloahtotm he h sesc,ohaur htso steotchtnatats i esfcsonaes eerhpt
t e ngg rta nn sia tei ie; nuhesbts hhehoqthiialstrcietsaliiutrswe ufscaws gaa s neirihotttxrceoaf
eht noitca ot.deecorp
8
setu cte nx"eeerhgotata reelp bo ta.son rd o hie itf snti" s oacWtyooanathewcre feeofrrwieatdhT
m o sdhan tea,i rr ew)e" tlwhdabo w ehils dntseineis b otaot seialpsnaht rpri tceexinahnefatelgp(
n oes" ile rntb steo icim onht .easoaoetaenhsdhgrlatoncaeblpapa proon dtoesilutb mciAassop
ded ntea men,,mhee sotvmd nciintoegtasi r uttdmioedn t nes tyobseibc ebmenrrrigepoprp
dy.aerla noi teaht Tnseemseulpm ieht modn ae.rl”“braootdarepo
s ntonietrc ragunc inn s stoos t s taci noseehl ntfosuhttufi aoiljtaisomeltadtwerhucasreTmatis
.gni n n oeso ess hei ntnadT rsoi aoen d uunotiret ntsfwstaeeeannntchmm eeoataiovcstterp
.s sns eotnc iionotmi atcrtt aeas d plmyeeuruttbmoci riFrrs yosionrbbcioear ihpntt-icohagih
, e;c t neen aa hteegt m tim rnsnotntyiin edagra ftinhniamaaa waepl marrmiswotiecnrecv
.tsnpeem ths ss nieou teigea rt nrisacniideAotfet ix madtenmina aitalsnmiieewntsheinatreecvc
. nse onmeg ioosn rticl idiuteaoree cibfsuthne dldrtexrnaoheiobwecahetrp
. egte l nntsr brie aeohio ngsemsfcsfnaihioan aastnp e oslyamstpiplodIsacneneerad-snaeM
sdlsdke ikses h krts nt alnsesenayoaotlailalutbictbaclgtpb tinupnmueclismiisbapossmcocca
eer eu.ssg) nt(i1yoaFlih itt rc ,aars satts lcoeA uanct d cfesseeini nd vtlfoeoeroietiatnhpccaa
n .ly,asneco t instdo aii iedidt neeam,do sdebcrrunle oeposFemmmahmaftmoxrceieerp
r sene e vehes regtrad onyageoexd th o n,w eeeednbydmf noe ama"aihsmosettictceaarlitnev"
stt tas"chueeatmbtfa( l s in n etw .ofrnooeioaent ftvkeai "bsd nn , uon rdecOeenhehhatrtthpo
) ttnem de e aso ra,nr thefmhuieaeeai estboatmtht rehfthueateibeatmtchfr otoelfuerbt
,de pdpniau qeeh terif si.tuo
e dsenl m aanos foc tesie"cmatbeaoctfsaa ldi e t ytenl embc telehe efeavihttefobt"wTshfsytas
)" sdrs nnetloahclitait ofwie dbenuordctntasop el tl de is eelmwuetteo obaedreitl"fhvse(tedrp
" .es)tn"eaosrl in aift oltoiilndtien i wvoed e"chndbtToescdot dps oao stpeu dtoedaihatvt"se(rp
. ,d e n d esdn k se ,e evenetdoeregsetdrosag anmresyifsnamayohasagaxaeaegxntngostrool
s.stnen oiednitd nitni ,aaiceeln achc u estatnlmrhnraeiowoetdsFicsotnnmiuidn omcotdsnoapR
., ee s flf)teea po3asrsyrm.haan toa0tgu t eifxnns,r l(eaea sesighotehibatsst aeaabtgorp
.sdn eo se iider mltegaeopiin rdpdlaoananph tao pcr Rc eaaetrhltsetuaotgtpfesar
d n e ne nengdase opanneolh ecaamhb cn ndrwa sioso imihiaihro wt htcadaaacavnraEaurd
,h , s c, t ereuesde ndlherszaeheenltt i i,nthgiiefffl sdgta kkmoooeeirsaohsserttushaatpo
n ed0enw atr eenbb g mai r usee.nswb eamm deah umecottaTien egrkae omtdty,misanswanetni
e r eu ,e svsfrllr r tiaoileeee rnteeivhhhe e er cmhkewtgh1b eseaetslitmthetjhuatrtbnhpeutebsr
.ss n n r,odsot ee i e nirddctrmeotonrn aouricpaoarrfsat aetousu. rsFdableni lhirmittr ksosifdinU
n onmfsior oatio n hatfeaarcihuant du (e s;vd e s annteea h a augt5a ffennu21oomian..mri00m
;g )nnd r )ionho e0 hiasffh3s ctaot.aatcl0haa f, w ae0nnlr2aoa .eivfn0 mtroo(eue5hbt1tinritsid
. ) "5sr .ae 7 htee1 t naa mh,ec s awoiT5 fgud efeett.sfondnetomd2eoaoahu"1t rrtn(u5pinmim
)ll i dk5n1S.a/0yt ia t dnne aag,unQ)ar rlefltodi(Wa nkteaSchu/tdy otfroip t2n1.a 0udQnaret(Wa
) " ldeslnka iao he t kmaga nc tSsnfa ufc /eaoeefd ou6f edrmhooed.o8 k"trho0.doptr0nmpaS(
senv oa rihan.eta )hcef ltamoe lO tdi1unk na Seia/g menf. kao5dor. nm0 e aSset(ershauTj
sn loyeihd ttora rm onfob;fiowusm t sere seteheuvsattrrismeitteid tacthnrosgetreuspourlli
l a. sck tenisynritat,aeac tischman lriT era a iefnrpcl lbtiiaclaeniieimgtswrai naarseabvabtpsbus
hscaus l, m, dna g . e emroroitirfff
9