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Asia-Pacific Forum
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Asia-Pacific Forum
Naval War College, Newport, R.I.,
11–12 June 2000
Asia & the Pacific
U.S. Strategic Traditions and
Regional Realities
Edited by
Paul D. Taylor
Naval War College Press
Newport, Rhode Island
2001
NavalWarCollegePress
Code32,NavalWarCollege,686CushingRoad
Newport,R.I.02841-1207
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Asia&thePacific:U.S.strategictraditionsandregionalrealities/editedbyPaulD.Taylor.
p.cm.
ISBN1-884733-15-8
1.UnitedStates—Militarypolicy—Congresses.2.PacificArea—Strategic
aspects—Congresses.3.Asia—Strategicaspects—Congresses.4.United
States—Relations—PacificArea—Congresses.5.United
States—Relations—Asia—Congresses.6.PacificArea—Relations—United
States—Congresses.7.Asia—Relations—UnitedStates—Congresses.
I.Taylor,PaulD.
(PaulDaniel),1939–
UA23.A7352001
327.7305—dc21
00-068699
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
The Asia-Pacific Studies Group
The Asia-Pacific Studies group acts as a catalyst, coordinator, and
implementorofresearchtoservetherequirementsoftheU.S.Navy,
the U.S. Pacific Command, and other elements of the U.S. govern-
ment responsible for formulating American policy, strategy, and
plansrelatedtoAsiaandthePacific.Itjoinstogetherthosepersonnel
oftheNavalWarCollegeandtheNavyWarfareDevelopmentCom-
mand who are engaged in work on Asia and the Pacific.
Disclaimer
The contents of this volume are the views of the authors. They are
notnecessarilyendorsedbytheU.S.NavalWarCollegeoranyother
organization or agency of the U.S. government.
CONTENTS
Foreword
ViceAdmiralArthurK.Cebrowski,U.S.Navy ........... ix
Preface
PaulD.Taylor ................................... xi
Acknowledgements.................................. xv
The Strategic Traditions of the United States
in the Asia-Pacific Region
StephenPeterRosen ............................... 1
Strategic Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region
Paul Dibb ...................................... 9
An Assessment of the “Objective” Political Conditions
That Pertain in the Asia-Pacific Region
AbramN.Shulsky ................................ 29
Understanding Changes in Asia’s Economic Landscape
Leif Rosenberger ................................. 51
The Military Dimensions of Great-Power Rivalry
in the Asia-Pacific Region
JohnR.Landry................................... 83
Roundtable: Net Assessment—Objective Conditions
versus the U.S. Strategic Tradition
Robert Sutter.................................... 97
Michael McDevitt................................ 101
Jonathan Pollack ................................. 107
Appendix.......................................... 115
Contributors,andtheEditor ........................... 117
FOREWORD
C
ARLVONCLAUSEWITZtaughtthatanyonewhoplansstrategy
beforehehasachievedacleardefinitionofpolicygoalsputsthe
cart before the horse. It is equally true that it makes no sense for a
countrytotrytodevelopitsforcesorplanoperationswithouttaking
accountoftheuniquecharacteristicsthatdefineandshapeitspoten-
tial adversaries and available allies.
Forthesereasons,weattheNavalWarCollegehaveplacedspecial
emphasis on understanding the Asia-Pacific region. The economic,
political,anddemographicdynamicsofthatareamakeclearitsim-
portancetoachievingglobalU.S.objectives.Atthesametime,con-
tinued tensions related to the Korean Peninsula, issues between
ChinaandTaiwanandbetweenIndiaandPakistan,aswellasunrest
withinIndonesiaunderscoreimportantthreatstostabilityinthere-
gion. Its vast territory and expanses of ocean make the Asia-Pacific
regionfundamentallyamaritimetheaterandtheU.S.Navyacentral
playerinanymilitaryoperationstodefendtheinterestsoftheUnited
States.
The Asia-Pacific Forum, from which the papers that follow are
taken, brought together a distinguished collection of scholars and
policypractitionerstoexaminethepolitical,economic,andmilitary
realitiesoftheAsia-PacificregioninthecontextoftheU.S.strategic
tradition.Theyprovedthatfamiliarmilitarythinkingaboutsomeim-
portant questions might have become obsolete.
Inhiskeynoteaddress,forexample,Prof.StephenP.RosenofHar-
vardrecalledthatmilitaryconventionalwisdomaboutAsiahadsug-
gested that nuclear weapons do not matter, that offense dominates
defense,thattheallieswillalwaysbewithus,andthateventhough
Asiamightbefaroff,we“knowhowtogetthere.”Infact,however,
Professor Rosen noted, the current reality is not quite like that.
Toughquestionsariseifallofourpotentialenemiesandsomeofour
friendsinthetheaterhavenuclearweapons.Offenseisdesirable,but
it is an option only if one can fight from sanctuary; the balance be-
tweenoffenseanddefenseisshifting.Someofthebasingpatternsare
alsoinquestion,andsoweneedtorethinkassumptionsthathaveun-
derlain our forward presence.
