Drone Strike–Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing

412 Pages·2022·4.628 MB·English

by  Mitt Regan

Drone Strike–
Analyzing
the Impacts of
Targeted Killing
Mitt Regan
Drone Strike–
Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing
Mitt Regan
Drone Strike–
Analyzing the Impacts
of Targeted Killing
Mitt Regan
Georgetown University Law Center
Washington, DC, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-91118-8 ISBN 978-3-030-91119-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91119-5
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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List of Tables
Table 3.1 Palestinian suicide operations during the Second Intifada 32
Table 3.2 Israeli targeted killing operations, November 2000–2010 33
Table 9.1 Estimates of US strikes and fatalities 261
Table 9.2 US Director of National Intelligence Report on US
counterterrorism strikes outside areas of active hostilities 269
Table 9.3 US Department of Defense Reports on civilian casualties
in connection with US military operations 269
Table 9.4 BIJ estimates of injuries 270
Table 9.5 Pakistan body count estimates of injuries in Pakistan 271
ix
Acknowledgments
I have been fortunate to have generous assistance from several people
whohelpedmerefineandstrengthentheanalysisinthisbook.Alexander
Billywasinvaluableinpatientlyandclearlyguidingmethroughthelatest
social science research methods, which enabled me to conduct a more
rigorousassessmentofthequantitativestudiesthatIdescribeinthebook.
Asfandyar Mir graciously shared his expertise in quantitative empirical
research, insights from his field work in the Afghanistan–Pakistan region,
and his deep knowledge of Al-Qaeda, its affiliates, and groups associated
with it.
I’m also grateful to many distinguished people who took the time to
read and offer insightful comments on portions of the manuscript, or to
discussmanyofthe ideasinit:Peter Berger,DaveBlair,DanByman,Joe
Chapa, Neta Crawford, Mary DeRosa, Ohpir Falk, Michael Gross, Luke
Hartig, Bruce Hoffman, Todd Huntley, Marty Lederman, Larry Lewis,
Bryce Loidolt, Paul Lushenko, Dan Mahanty, Tamir Meisels, Seumas
Miller, Nancy Sachs, Sarah Sewall, Rita Siemion, Chris Woods, John
Williams,andKatherineZimmerman.Ialsobenefitedfromconversations
withseveralindividualsfamiliarwithtargetedstrikeoperationswhoprefer
to remain anonymous.
In addition, I appreciated the opportunity to begin to develop the
framework for this book while working on a project on Global Terrorism
andCollectiveResponsibility:RedesigningMilitary,PoliceandIntelligence
Institutions in Liberal Democracies funded by the European Research
v
vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Council and headed by Seumas Miller. None of the people I mention
shouldbeassumednecessarilytoagreewiththeviewsthatIexpressinthis
book, and any errors are mine alone. Finally, I’m indebted in more ways
than I can recount to Nancy Sachs for her love and support throughout
this project and our lives together.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
Part I Empirical Research on the Effectiveness of
Targeted Killing
2 Cause and Effect in Targeted Killing 17
3 Israeli Targeted Strikes 31
4 Leadership Targeting Studies 67
Part II Impacts of US Strikes on Terrorist Groups
5 Overview of US Targeted Strikes 95
6 Quantitative Research 115
7 Qualitative Evidence 163
8 Weighing the Evidence 185
Part III Impacts of US Strikes on Civilians
9 Civilian Casualties from US Targeted Strikes 227
10 Civilian Casualties: Beyond the Numbers 285
11 Effects on Local Populations 323
vii
viii CONTENTS
Part IV Conclusions
12 Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing 359
References 367
Index 393
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Background
In November 2001, President George W. Bush met with Yemeni Pres-
ident Ali Abdullah Saleh in the White House and delivered a blunt
message. The US wanted Yemen to arrest Qa’id Salim Sinan al-Harithi,
“bin Laden’s top lieutenant in the country and the head of al-Qaeda in
Yemen.”1 Harithi had been involved in planning the attack on the USS
Cole in Aden harbor in Yemen a little over a year earlier, which killed 17
Americans and wounded 39. He was continuing to engage in planning
attacks against US persons. Saleh suggested it might be difficult to meet
Bush’s request because “[t]he tribes in these areas are very difficult.”2
Nonetheless, he agreed to do his best.
Saleh tried contacting tribal leaders to urge them to turn Harithi over
or to convince him to turn himself in. These efforts were unsuccessful.
On December 17, 2001, he ordered military operations in areas where
hethoughtHarithimightbelocated.Eventually,tanks,personnelcarriers,
and a helicopter reached a village where Harithi and an aide were hiding.
Officers told a young sheikh in charge of the village that they had no
quarrel with residents and were interested only in the suspect.
Harithi, however, had invoked “the tribal and customary code of law
that held sway across much of Yemen, stressing his shared heritage in
appealing for refuge. Once the pledge was given, the tribe was honor-
bound to protect him.”3 Most of the tribesmen knew Harithi and his
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 1
Switzerland AG 2022
M. Regan, Drone Strike–Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91119-5_1