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DRIVING FORCES IN PHYSICAL, BIOLOGICAL AND
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHENOMENA
A Network Science Investigation of Social Bonds and Interactions
In recent years network science has become a dynamic and promising disci-
pline; here it is extended to explore social and historical phenomena. While we
experience social interactions every day, there is little quantitative knowledge on
them. Instead, we are often tempted to resort to fanciful explanations to account
for social trends. For example, it has been argued that the decrease in suicide
rates in America in the 1990s should be attributed to greater consumption of
anti-depressants. However, further examination revealed that US counties where
suicides rates have fallen the most are those with a high proportion of Hispanic
immigrants,whoareknowntohavelowsuiciderates.Moregenerally,exogenous
andendogenousinteractionsareoftenthekeytounderstandingsocialphenomena
and unravelling historical mysteries.
This book begins by explaining how it is possible to bridge the gap between
physicsandsociologybyexploringhownetworktheorycanapplytoboth.Itthen
examines the macro- and micro-interactions in societies. The chapters are largely
self-contained, allowing readers to easily access and understand the sections
of most interest to them. This multidisciplinary book will be fascinating to all
physicists who have an interest in the human sciences, and it will provide an
alternative perspective to graduate students and researchers in sociology and
econophysics.
Bertrand M. Roehner is a Professor at the Institute for Theoretical and High
Energy Physics at the University of Paris, France. He has written several books
on econophysics, including Patterns of Speculation (Cambridge University Press,
2002) and Pattern and Repertoire in History (Harvard University Press, 2002).
DRIVING FORCES IN PHYSICAL,
BIOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC
PHENOMENA
A Network Science Investigation of Social Bonds
and Interactions
BERTRAND M. ROEHNER
UniversityofParis
CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB28RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521859103
© B. M. Roehner 2007
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2007
ISBN-13 978-0-511-28526-4 eBook (NetLibrary)
ISBN-10 0-511-28674-0 eBook (NetLibrary)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-85910-3 hardback
ISBN-10 0-521-85910-7 hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls
for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the
dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
John Adams, December 1770
We continued our systematic survey of the edge of the sodden portion of the moor, and
soon our perseverance was gloriously rewarded. Right across the lower part of the bog
lay a miry path. Holmes gave a cry of delight as he approached it. “Here is Herr
Heidegger, sure enough! My reasoning seems to have been pretty sound, Watson.”
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Adventure of the Priory School” (1905)
Contents
Preface page xi
Part I Bridging the gap between physics and the social sciences 1
1 Probing bonds 3
1.1 The Rutherford experiment 6
1.2 Boiling points as test-probes 10
1.3 Basic principles of the physics of mixing 12
1.4 Immiscible liquids 13
1.5 Physical properties of a mixture as a tool for exploring bonds 14
1.6 Estimating the correlation length in social phenomena 16
1.7 Outline of the book 23
Appendix Gauging the links between two twinned communities 24
2 The battle against noise in physics 26
2.1 Improving the signal to noise ratio in the pendulum experiment 29
2.2 Noise reduction in the detection of gravitational waves 31
2.3 Pattern matching: a simulation 32
3 The battle against noise in the social sciences 35
3.1 The extreme value technique 35
3.2 Pattern matching: knowing when and what to observe 38
3.3 Reducing noise by adding up several realizations 43
3.4 Confidence intervals and statistical significance 50
3.5 Upgrading statistical tests 54
3.6 Conclusion 60
4 Equilibrium and metastable states 62
4.1 Equilibrium restoring forces 63
4.2 Probing the strength of equilibrium restoring forces 66
4.3 Metastable states in physics and chemistry 71
4.4 Metastability, seeds and forms of post-revolution societies 75
vii
viii Contents
5 Are the data reliable? 80
5.1 The replication process for the Foucault pendulum experiment 81
5.2 The replication process for cold nuclear fusion 84
5.3 Biased suicide statistics 85
5.4 Interactions between Japanese population and occupation forces 90
5.5 Conclusions and perspectives 99
Part II Macro-interactions 101
6 Shaping the Zeitgeist 105
6.1 Marketing campaigns: shaping the response of consumers 106
6.2 Public relations campaigns: example of cell phones in cars 111
6.3 Shaping the Zeitgeist: the promotion of neoliberalism 115
6.4 Tangible effects of neoliberal policies 126
6.5 A network perspective 131
Appendix From Edward Bernays to Isaac Asimov 132
7 Bonds of vassalage 135
7.1 Role of the United States in the First Vietnam War 137
7.2 Ways and means 145
7.3 Identification of interference through the coincidence method 146
8 The absentee ownership syndrome 150
8.1 Land reform in Japan under General MacArthur 150
8.2 How the strength of interpersonal interactions conditions human
behavior 151
8.3 Effects of absentee ownership in Ireland 155
8.4 Effect of segmentation on the effectiveness of a social system 156
8.5 Hardship as a side effect of absentee landlordism 158
8.6 The absentee landlord paradigm in history 160
8.7 Assessing interaction in settler colonies 161
8.8 Revolutions seen as a way to end absentee landlordism 165
8.9 Present-day manifestations of the absentee ownership syndrome 165
Part III Micro-interactions: a network explanation of suicide 169
9 Effects of a male–female imbalance 173
9.1 Suicide rates of unmarried versus married people 174
9.2 Suicide rate in a population with a gender imbalance 176
9.3 Designing the experiment 178
9.4 Suicide rates as a function of sex ratio in groups of immigrants 182
9.5 Cross-sectional analysis 185
