Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems ...

114 Pages·2012·2.17 MB·English

Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems
and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems
services and human wellbeing to 2030
A study commissioned by
the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme
ILRI PROJECT REPORT
ISBN: 92–9146–285–3
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Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems
and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems
services and human wellbeing to 2030
A study commissioned by the CGIAR
Systemwide Livestock Programme
Mario Herrero,1 Philip K. Thornton,1 An Notenbaert,1 Siwa Msangi,2 Stanley Wood,2 Russ Kruska,1 J. Dixon,3
D. Bossio,4 J. van de Steeg,1 H. Ade Freeman,1 X. Li,3 and P. ParthasarathyRao5
1 International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
2 International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
3 Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maiz y Trigo, Mexico DF, Mexico
4 International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka
5 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Hyderabad, India
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ISBN 92–9146–285–3
Citation: Herrero, M., Thornton, P.K., Notenbaert, A., Msangi, S., Wood, S., Kruska, R., Dixon, J., Bossio, D., van de Steeg, J., Freeman, H.A., Li, X. and
Rao, P.P. 2012. Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030: A study
commissioned by the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI.

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Contents
Tables iv
Figures vi
Executive summary viii
1 Introduction 1
2 Framework for studying the dynamics and impacts of change in crop–livestock systems 2
2.1 Key drivers of change in crop–livestock systems 4
3 Global trends in agriculture, agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing 8
3.1 Trends in human demography, livelihoods and economic parameters 8
3.2 Trends in agriculture 15
3.3 Environmental trends and crop–livestock systems 20
4 Methods and scenarios for evaluating changes in mixed crop–livestock systems and human wellbeing 29
4.1 Methods 29
4.2 Brief IMPACT model description 29
4.3 Descriptions of IMPACT scenarios used for drivers study 31
4.4 Allocation of the FPU-level impact outputs to regions and systems 34
5 Results 39
5.1 Farming systems and the distribution of human population 39
5.2 World food prices 41
5.3 Livestock numbers and their production under alternative scenarios 2000–2030 42
5.4 Crop production 59
5.5 Impacts on human wellbeing 89
6 Conclusions 94
References 97
Appendix A: Definition of the regions 100
iv Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030
Tables
Table 1. Key drivers of change in crop–livestock systems 7
Table 2. Population size and life expectancy between 1950 and 2000 for different world regions 9
Table 3. Population numbers in different farming systems in developing countries 9
Table 4. Changes in food consumption in developing countries 13
Table 5. Area, people, poverty and livestock within agricultural production systems 14
Table 6. Share of milk and meat outputs by production systems in selected regions 18
Table 7. Livestock population and production in different production systems in developing countries 18
Table 8. Livestock population and production in different agro-ecological zones 19
Table 9. Global trends and projections in the use of cereal as feed 19
Table 10. Key productivity parameters for pigs and poultry in different world regions 20
Table 11. Regional climate change projections from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment 21
Table 12. Global projections of energy demand in 2015 and 2030 23
Table 13. Global biofuel production and crops 23
Table 14. Human, livestock and total energy consumption in selected farming systems 24
Table 15. Average nutrient balances of some SSA countries 26
Table 16. Estimated relative contribution of pig waste, domestic wastewater and non-phosphorus
emissions in water systems 27
Table 17. Assumptions for reference case and the scenario variant with high agricultural investment
combined with other AKST-related factors (used as IRRIGATION EXPANSION scenario) 32
Table 18. Changes to average income demand elasticities for meat and vegetarian foods by IAASTD
region under low growth in meat demand 34
Table 19. Indices used 36
Table 20. Farming systems: area and human population for different regions of the world under
alternative scenarios to 2030 40
Table 21. World food prices by scenario 42
Table 22. Bovine numbers by farming system under different scenarios 2000–2030 43
Table 23. Milk production by farming system under different scenarios 2000–2030 44
Table 24. Meat production by farming system under different scenarios 2000–2030 45
Table 25. Livestock production, farming systems vs. lamb production 46
Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030 v
Table 26. Livestock production, farming systems vs. small ruminants 51
Table 27. Chicken numbers by farming system under alternative development scenarios 54
Table 28. Egg production by farming system under alternative development scenarios 55
Table 29. Poultry production under alternative development scenarios 56
Table 30. Numbers of pigs by farming system under alternative development scenarios 57
Table 31. Livestock production, farming systems vs. pork production 58
Table 32. Global area of maize by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 60
Table 33. Global maize production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 61
Table 34. Global area of wheat by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 62
Table 35. Global production of wheat by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 63
Table 36. Global area of rice by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 64
Table 37. Global rice production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 65
Table 38. Global area of sorghum by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 66
Table 39. Global sorghum production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 67
Table 40. Global area of millet by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 68
Table 41. Global millet production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 69
Table 42. Global area of barley production under different scenarios 70
Table 43. Global production of barley by system by region by scenario 71
Table 44. Global area of cassava by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 72
Table 45. Global cassava production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 73
Table 46. Global area of sweetpotato by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 74
Table 47. Global sweetpotato production by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 75
Table 48. Global area of potatoes by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 76
Table 49. Global production of potatoes by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 77
Table 50. Stover production in the developing world 2000–2030 under alternative development scenarios 84
Table 51. Metabolizable energy from stover by system by region by scenario to 2030 85
Table 52. Predicted number of malnourished children under 5 by system, region and scenario 2000–2030 90
Table 53. Percentage of malnourished children under 5 relative to human population numbers
by system by region by scenario 2000–2030 91
vi Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030
Figures
Figure 1. Conceptual framework for studying the impacts of drivers of change in crop–livestock systems 3
Figure 2. Overview of a framework and how it relates to a specific crop–livestock system 4
Figure 3. Overview of a framework and how it relates to a specific crop–livestock system
under a technology intervention 5
Figure 4. Expenditure gains in 42 developing countries for a one per cent increase in GDP growth 10
Figure 5. Growth in agricultural GDP in developing countries 10
Figure 6. Proportion of total population in developing countries that is rural 11
Figure 7. Rural poverty rates from 1993 to 2002 12
Figure 8. Association between National Average Dietary Energy Supply and GDP, per capita 12
Figure 9. Domestic consumption of meat and cereals in developing countries between 1980 and 2005 13
Figure 10. Per capita food consumption in developing countries between 1961 and 2003 13
Figure 11. Changes in the value of exports of crops in developing countries between 1960 and 2004 14
Figure 12. Trends in selected drivers of food provision worldwide, 1961–2001 15
Figure 13. Regional cereal yields between 1960 and 2005 16
Figure 14. Arable and permanent cropland per capita of the agricultural population 16
Figure 15. Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries 17
Figure 16. Global trends in food production and price in relation to undernourishment 17
Figure 17. Disaster losses, total and as a share of GDP between 1985 and 1999 in the world’s
ten richest and poorest nations 20
Figure 18. Length of growing period (days per year) for 2000 22
Figure 19. Areas within the LGA (in yellow) and MRA (in green) systems projected to undergo more
than 20% reduction in the length of growing period to 2050 22
Figure 20. Global changes in food consumption from 1961 to 2003 25
Figure 21. Investing in irrigation based on FAO and World Bank data 25
Figure 22. Some examples of scenario options 25
Figure 23. Trends in yield and nutrient stocks for two soil types 26
Figure 24. Modern inputs have expanded rapidly but have lagged in SSA 27
Figure 25. Changes in fallow land to 2030 28
Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030 vii
Figure 26. Overview of the ‘food’ side of the IMPACT model 30
Figure 27. Schematic representation of the linkage of the food and water modules in the augmented
IMPACT model (IMPACT-Water) 31
Figure 28. Flow chart of the process used in establishment of the production systems 38
Figure 29. The distribution of farming systems, as classified for this study, for 2000 and 2030 39
Figure 30. Density of ruminants 2000–2030 for the baseline scenario 47
Figure 31. Rates of growth in meat and milk production under the references scenario 2000–2030 48
Figure 32. Density of poultry 2000–2030 for the baseline scenario 52
Figure 33. Density of pigs 2000–2030 for the baseline scenario 53
Figure 34. Global cereal production–2000 78
Figure 35. Mixed systems in the developing world produce the food of the poor 78
Figure 36. Rates of cereal production to 2030 by farming system under the reference scenario 79
Figure 37. Composition of cereal stover availability by system and region 2000 85
Figure 38. Global availability of metabolizable energy from stover for ruminants and its change to 2030 86
Figure 39. Per capita kilocalorie consumption by scenario 89
Figure 40. Density of malnourished children under five, 2000–2030 92
viii Drivers of change in crop–livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human wellbeing to 2030
Executive summary
Introduction
The CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme (SLP) commissioned a desk study titled ‘Drivers of change in mixed
crop–livestock systems’. The study was to be developed by a multi-disciplinary task force from across the CGIAR
centres. The objective of the study was to identify places and production systems in the developing world which, due
to global changes, may not be able to supply food for the growing population or, in doing so, the sustainability and
maintenance of key ecosystem functions would be compromised. The project works are the cross roads of agriculture
and livestock, poverty and the environment.
This report 1) develops a conceptual framework for studying the effects of drivers of change in mixed crop–livestock
systems; 2) analyses the past trends of key indicators of change in mixed crop–livestock systems; and 3) uses these
trends, along with modelling approaches and other tools, to develop a series of scenarios of how mixed systems in
different regions might evolve, and what their constraints and opportunities could be. This information can be used to
guide some basic priority setting for the SLP and for the CGIAR in more general terms.
What is the problem?
The world’s population is predicted to increase by 50% over the next quarter of a century to reach 9 billion by 2030.
During this period, and if the livestock revolution fully materializes (Delgado et al. 1999), in developing countries there
is likely to be a rapid increase in demand for livestock products driven by increasing urbanization and rising incomes.
On top of this, the impacts of a range of driving forces, such as water availability, climate change and technological
innovations, on smallholder crop–livestock production may be substantial. Variations in these drivers will inevitably
affect smallholder farms. The challenge is to ensure that the resource-poor, i.e. the mixed crop–livestock smallholder
sector, which currently provides the majority of milk and meat in the tropics, is able to meet the increased demand for
these products. To do so the sector will need to intensify but at the same time ensure that household food security,
sustainable natural resource management and rural livelihoods are not compromised.
The framework for the study was based on that of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, which was subsequently
used for other major assessments such as the Global Environment Outlook 4 (UNEP 2007) and the International
Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (2008). It shares common features
with the frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) and the Comprehensive Assessment
of Water Management in Agriculture (2007). It is based on the notion that a set of drivers, both direct and indirect,
can make systems change over time. The local development context determines how, where and which drivers play
the most important role in which system. Different drivers exert different kinds of ‘pressures’ on key aspects of agro-
ecosystems. These pressures include changes in land use, changes in resource and input use, and increased competition
for biomass (food, feed and energy). In turn, these pressures have impacts on different agro-ecosystem services, such
as climate regulation, watershed protection, and crop pollination. Depending on the magnitude of the pressures and
the impacts on agro-ecosystems services, human wellbeing (measured, for example, by income, health, food security,