Driver Behaviour and Accident Research Methodology: Unresolved Problems

303 Pages·2009·3.89 MB·English

by  Anders af Wåhlberg

DRIVER BEHAVIOUR AND ACCIDENT RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
Human Factors in Road
and Rail Transport
Series Editors
Dr Lisa Dorn
Director of the Driving Research Group, Department of Human Factors,
Cranfield University
Dr Gerald Matthews
Professor of Psychology at the University of Cincinnati
Dr Ian Glendon
Associate Professor of Psychology at Griffith University, Queensland,
and is president of the Division of Traffic and Transportation Psychology
of the International Association of Applied Psychology
Today’s society must confront major land transport problems. The human and
financial costs of vehicle accidents are increasing, with road traffic accidents
predicted to become the third largest cause of death and injury across the world
by 2020. Several social trends pose threats to safety, including increasing car
ownership and traffic congestion, the increased complexity of the human-vehicle
interface, the ageing of populations in the developed world, and a possible influx
of young vehicle operators in the developing world.
Ashgate’s ‘Human Factors in Road and Rail Transport’ series aims to make a
timely contribution to these issues by focusing on the driver as a contributing
causal agent in road and rail accidents. The series seeks to reflect the increasing
demand for safe, efficient and economical land-based transport by reporting on the
state-of-theart science that may be applied to reduce vehicle collisions, improve the
usability of vehicles and enhance the operator’s wellbeing and satisfaction. It will
do so by disseminating new theoretical and empirical research from specialists in
the behavioural and allied disciplines, including traffic psychology, human factors
and ergonomics.
The series captures topics such as driver behaviour, driver training, in-vehicle
technology, driver health and driver assessment. Specially commissioned works
from internationally recognised experts in the field will provide authoritative
accounts of the leading approaches to this significant real-world problem.
Driver Behaviour and Accident
Research Methodology
Unresolved Problems
ANDERS AF WÅHLBERG
Uppsala University, Sweden
© Anders af Wåhlberg 2009
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Anders af Wåhlberg has asserted his moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents
Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work.
Published by
Ashgate Publishing Limited Ashgate Publishing Company
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Union Road 101 Cherry Street
Farnham Burlington
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Wåhlberg, Anders af.
Driver behaviour and accident research methodology :
unresolved problems. -- (Human factors in road and rail
transport)
1. Traffic accidents--Research. 2. Automobile driving--
Psychological aspects.
I. Title II. Series
363.1'251-dc22
ISBN: 978-0-7546-7076-6 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-7546-8128-1 (ebk.III)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Wåhlberg, Anders af.
Driver behaviour and accident research methodology : unresolved problems / by Anders
af Wåhlberg.
p. cm. -- (Human factors in road and rail transport)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7546-7076-6 (hardback) -- ISBN 978-0-7546-8128-1 (ebook) 1. Automobile
drivers--Psychology. 2. Traffic accident investigation. I. Title.
TL152.3.W34 2009
363.12'565--dc22
2009018261
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Acknowledgements xiii
Introduction xv
1 Traffic Accident Involvement Taxonomies 1
2 The Validity of Self-reported Traffic Behaviour Data 17
3 Accident Proneness 65
4 The Determination of Fault in Collisions 101
5 The Accident-Exposure Association 121
6 Constructing a Driving Safety Criterion 139
7 Alternatives to Accidents as Dependent Variable 173
8 Cases Studies 209
Afterword 217
References 231
Index 277
This page has been left blank intentionally
List of Figures
3.1 The association between mean number of accidents in each sample
for the whole time period used and the (squared) correlation of
accidents between parts of this period (usually split-half) 78
3.2 The association between mean number of accidents and the
(squared) correlation between accidents in different time periods in
the samples, for culpable accidents only, from studies in Table 3.1 87
3.3 The reliabilities (Spearman-Brown corrected correlations) found for
factory workers’ accidents by Whitlock, Clouse and Spencer (1963) 93
3.4 The number of accidents (regardless of culpability) per year
experienced by one bus driver 99
5.1 The association between annual mileage category and mean
number of accidents reported in Lefeve, Billion and Cross (1956) 127
5.2 The association between annual mileage category and mean
number of accidents reported in Ferdun, Peck and Coppin (1967) 131
5.3 The association between annual mileage category and mean
number of accidents reported in Liddell (1982) 132
5.4 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of
(motor cycle) accidents reported in Taylor and Lockwood (1990) 132
5.5 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number
of accidents for male drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood and
Lester (1991) 133
5.6 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number
of accidents for female drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood
and Lester (1991) 133
5.7 The association between annual mileage category and mean number
of accidents for two categories of drivers (with and without traffic
fines) reported in Lourens, Vissers and Jessurun (1999) 134
5.8 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number
of accidents per million miles for male drivers reported in
Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 134
5.9 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number
of accidents per million miles for female drivers reported in
Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 135
This page has been left blank intentionally
List of Tables
2.1 Studies on the validity of self-reports in two broad categories;
injuries/accidents and behaviour/characteristics 18–19
2.2 Studies that have compared agreement of self-reported traffic
accidents/incidents with other sources, and reported per cent
agreement in terms of the means of the sources 22
2.3 Studies that have compared the numbers of self-reported traffic
accidents with data from records of various types, and reported
per cent agreement 24–25
2.4 Studies that have compared self-reported traffic accidents/
incidents to other sources, and reported agreement in terms of
an association measure 26–27
2.5 Correlations between effect sizes for self-report and state-
recorded accidents with different predictors in various studies 36
2.6 The associations and differences between self-reported and
state records for traffic citations 43
3.1 The results from studies on the association between numbers of
traffic accidents in different time periods, which were included
in the meta-analysis 72–75
3.2 The results from studies on the association between numbers
of traffic accidents in different time periods that did not report
values that could be included in the meta-analysis 76
3.3 The correlations between the (squared) size of the correlations
between time periods from Table 3.1 and time periods and the
mean number of accidents in each sample (total time period) 77
3.4 The increase in between time periods correlations with time
period and mean number of accidents for three driver groups 79
3.5 The correlations between squared between time periods
correlations and time periods and accident means 86
3.6 The correlations found between industrial workers’ accidents in
different time periods by Greenwood and Woods (1919) 91
3.7 The correlations found between shunters’ accidents in different
time periods by Adelstein (1952) 92
3.8 The correlations found between shunters’ mishaps (property
damage accidents) in different time periods by Adelstein (1952) 92
4.1 Some studies where culpable and non-culpable collisions have
been separated and culpability assigned by the drivers 104–105