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Does Torture Work? Does Torture Work? JOHN W. SCHIEMANN 3 3 OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide. Oxford NewYork Auckland CapeTown DaresSalaam HongKong Karachi KualaLumpur Madrid Melbourne MexicoCity Nairobi NewDelhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto Withofficesin Argentina Austria Brazil Chile CzechRepublic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore SouthKorea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam OxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPress intheUKandcertainothercountries. PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaby OxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016 ©JohnW.Schiemann2016 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced, storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans, withoutthepriorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress, orasexpresslypermittedbylaw,bylicense,orundertermsagreedwiththe appropriatereproductionrightsorganization.Inquiriesconcerningreproduction outsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment, OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressabove. Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Schiemann,JohnW. Doestorturework?/JohnW.Schiemann. p. cm. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978–0–19–026236–5(hardback:alk.paper)1.Torture.2.Questioning.3.Militaryinterrogation. 4.Terrorism—Prevention.5.Crimeprevention. I.Title. HV8593.S3452016 364.6’7—dc23 2015016041 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica onacid-freepaper ToCarol Ifweareagainsttorture,wearecommittedactuallytoarguingwithour fellowcitizens,nottreatingthosewhodefendtortureasmoralmonsters. —Michael Ignatieff,“MoralProhibitionataPrice,”inTorture The...ForceofNumbers...canbesuccessfullyapplied,eventothose things, which one would imagine are subject to no Rules. [W]hen a MathematicalReasoningcanbehad,it’sasgreatafollytomakeuseof anyother,astogropeforathinginthedark,whenyouhaveaCandle standingbyyou. —John Arbuthnot,OftheLawsofChance The utility of moral and political philosophy is to be estimated, not so muchbythecommoditieswehavebyknowingthesesciences,asbythe calamitieswereceivebynotknowingthem. —Thomas Hobbes,ElementsofPhilosophy CONTENTS ListofFigures ix ListofTables x Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii 1. InterrogatingTorture 1 2. DangerousTorment 17 3. BenchmarkingInterrogationalTorture 40 4. AQuixoticModelofInterrogationalTorture 64 5. ARealisticModelofInterrogationalTorture 83 6. ABrutalLogic 105 7. AMatterofCalculation 119 8. SurpriseTorture 138 9. AmbiguousInformationandFalseConfirmation 149 10.ValuableInformation,SelectiveTorture 162 11.TorturingInnocents,ResistingTorture 180 12.Torture’sGarden 195 13.Torture’sConfession 211 Postscript 223 viii CONTENTS Appendices 253 AppendixA:TheRITModel 255 AppendixB:ComparativeStaticsAnalysis 265 AppendixC:ObservationsandPropositions 268 Notes 273 References 285 Index 297 LIST OF FIGURES 4.1BushInterrogationGamewithaCooperativeDetainee 70 4.2BushInterrogationGamewithaResistantDetainee 78 5.1MovesbyNature 86 5.2RepresentingUncertainty 88 5.3BushInterrogationGamewithVariablesforPayoffs 97 5.4RealisticInterrogationalTortureGame(RIT) 100 6.1ThresholdExample 112 7.1EquilibriaParameterSpace 122 7.2EquilibriaParameterSpacewithThresholds 136 8.1ValuableInformation,SurpriseTortureEquilibrium 139 9.1AmbiguousInformation,SelectiveTortureEquilibrium 150 9.2FalseConfirmation,SelectiveTortureEquilibrium 154 10.1ValuableInformation,SelectiveTortureEquilibrium 163 11.1NoInformation,TortureEquilibrium 181 11.2NoInformation,NoTortureEquilibrium 191 12.1MaximumExtent,ValuableInformationandTorture 200 12.2Minimum Extent, False and No Information by Cooperative Detainee 202 A.1RealisticInterrogationalTortureGame(RIT) 256

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When the Senate released its so-called "Torture Report" in December 2014 the world would learn that, for years, the CIA had used unimaginably brutal methods to interrogate its prisoners - often without yielding any useful or truthful information. The agency had long and adamantly defended its use of
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When the Senate released its so-called "Torture Report" in December 2014 the world would learn that, for years, the CIA had used unimaginably brutal methods to interrogate its prisoners - often without yielding any useful or truthful information. The agency had long and adamantly defended its use of

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