Diverse development paths and structural transformation in the escape from poverty

301 Pages·2016·2.78 MB·English

by  Andersson

OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
Diverse Development Paths and Structural
Transformation in the Escape from Poverty
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
Diverse Development Paths
and Structural Transformation
in the Escape from Poverty
Edited by
Martin Andersson and Tobias Axelsson
1
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
3
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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
Preface and Acknowledgements
Wehadtwoobjectiveswhenwestartedtosketchtheoutlineofthisvolume.
First, to gather world-leading scholars with interests in long-term economic
dynamics in the borderland between Economic History and Development
Economics to reflect upon the development gap in the world economy and
the prospects for less advantaged economies to move ahead. We asked the
contributorstodiscussapproachestoandpatternsofeconomicdevelopment
of today in a longer-term perspective. What are the lessons learned, to be
discovered, or perhaps, rediscovered? We proposed to the authors to freely
revisitanalyticalconceptssuchasadvantagesanddisadvantagesofbackward-
ness,actsofsubstitution,theroleofinitialconditions,socialcapabilitiesetc.
inprocess-orientedperspectivesinthetraditionofGerschenkron,Hirschman,
Abramovitz, to name a few. We thought, and still think, that this fills a
significantgapinthecurrentdevelopmentdiscussion.
A secondobjectivewastohonourProfessor Christer Gunnarssonwho has
devoted his academic career, in both teaching and research, to discussing
these very issues. We are both, as former students and current colleagues,
indebtedtohisurgingandefforttofocusonsocialchange,toberelevantto
currentaffairs,tolettheresearchquestionsguidethechoiceofmethodsand
alwaystokeepasoundscepticismtowardsthefadsinthefield.WithChrister
being a big fan of the Gerschenkronian approach—at least until asked to
contribute with a chapter using such a perspective to this volume—we
thoughtafittingdedicationwouldbetoaskscholarswithsimilarinclinations
todelveintotheveryquestionshehimselfhasgrappledwith.Itisourhope
thatthisbookwillinspirethinkingaboutexperiencesofandpossibilitiesfor
catchingupinthedevelopingworld,inacohesivewayandwithoutbeingin
thralltopre-setuniversalmodels.
To complete a project like this is impossible without the devotion of the
contributors.Ourdeepestthanksgotoallofyouforalltheworkyouhaveput
intothisvolume.1Wealsothankourcolleaguesinthe‘developmentgroup’at
1 InJanuary2016,asthisbookwentthroughitsfinalstages,LennartSchönsadlypassedaway.
With his structural-analytical approach he made a profound intellectual impression in Lund
andbeyond.Withhumblesharpnessanddepthhewasasourceofinspirationtomanyofus.
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
PrefaceandAcknowledgements
the department of Economic History, Lund University, for stimulating and
constructivediscussions.SpecialthanksgotoMontserratLópezJerez.Cristián
ArturoDucoingRuizdeservesaspecialmention.
At Oxford University Press, we would like to thank Adam Swallow, who
right from the start believed in our proposal, and Aimee Wright, for their
guidanceandassistance.Withoutfinancialsupportwecouldnothavecarried
out this project. We would like to thank The Swedish Research Council,
The Crafoord Foundation, Rektor Nils Stjernquists forskningsfond, and Per
WestlingsMinnesfond.
MartinisgratefultoTeresiaRindefjällandTobiastoSarahHill.Thankyou
for always being there for us, providing encouragement, invaluable com-
ments,andsuggestionsalongtheway.
MartinandTobias
Lund28January2016
vi
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Table of Contents
ListofFigures ix
ListofTables xi
NotesonContributors xiii
Part1. StructuralTransformationandCatchingup
1. DiversityofDevelopmentPathsandStructuralTransformation
inHistoricalPerspective—anIntroduction 3
MartinAnderssonandTobiasAxelsson
2. StructuralChangeandCatchingup—theRelativeSmallCountry
Advantage 18
LennartSchön
3. TheLatecomerAdvantagesandDisadvantages:ANewStructural
EconomicsPerspective 43
JustinYifuLin
4. TheRoleofAgriculturein‘Catchingup’:AGerschenkronian
Perspective 68
C.PeterTimmer
Part2. DiversityinDevelopment
5. MisinterpretingtheEastAsianMiracle—aGerschenkronian
PerspectiveonSubstitutionandAdvantagesofBackwardness
intheIndustrializationofEasternAsia 93
ChristerGunnarsson
6. SoutheastAsia:TheHalf-wayMiracle? 128
AnneBooth
7. HasLatinAmericaChangedTracks?Catchingup:NowandThen.
Anessay 158
LuisBértola
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TableofContents
8. EconomicBackwardnessandCatchingup:BrazilianAgriculture,
1964–2014 181
LeeAlstonandBernardoMueller
9. IsAfricaTooLatefor‘LateDevelopment’?GerschenkronSouth
oftheSahara 206
GarethAustin
10. IsSub-SaharanAfricaFinallyCatchingup? 236
ErikThorbeckeandYusiOuyang
11. RelativeEconomicBackwardnessandCatchingup:Lessonsfrom
History,ImplicationsforDevelopmentThinking 266
MartinAnderssonandTobiasAxelsson
Index 277
viii
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi
List of Figures
2.1 RatiobetweenWorldGrossProduction1990–2013aggregated
inPPP1990toaggregatedinupdatedPPP2005. 24
2.2 GDPpercapita1990–2005inChinaandIndia—levelsof1990PPP
(lowercurves)and2005PPP(uppercurves).USDollarpercapita.
Logscale. 25
3.1 DevelopmentsincetheIndustrialRevolution. 47
3.2 DistributionofCountriesby(Relative)IncomeClassification,
1900–2008,%. 48
3.3 LatinAmericanEconomicPerformanceovertheLastCentury. 49
4.1 ImpactoftheEnglishCornLawsontheIndustrialRevolution. 79
4.2 LandandLabourProductivityinAgriculture,1961–2010. 86
5.1 TheIshikawacurves. 111
8.1 Smooth,rugged,andrandomfitnesslandscapes. 185
8.2 Theactualandbeliefs. 188
8.3 Stagesofeconomicgrowthvs.economicbackwardness. 190
8.4 Hirschman’sHidingHandPrincipleinfitnesslandscapes. 194
8.5 Theevolutionofproduction,land,labour,andTFPinBrazilianagriculture. 195
8.6 TheevolutionofTFPacrosscountries. 196
8.7 Brazil’srankin1970and2012asaproducerofthetop-tenmostvaluable
cropsandlivestockproductsof2012. 197
10.1 GDPpercapita(constant2005US$)byRegionduring1960–2013. 242