Distortions to Agricultural Incentives Project - University of Adelaide

33 Pages·2013·1.98 MB·English

by  Kym Anderson

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives Project
lead by Kym Anderson

Signe Nelgen
University of Adelaide

Workshop on Meeting Food Security Goals with Good Policy,
Medan, Indonesia, 26-27 June 2013
Outline
Purpose of the DAI project

Output and Indicators

Key findings of the studies

Lessons for future effort to monitor and evaluate
policies that affect agricultural and food markets
Premises behind DAI project

Agricultural and food markets in DCs
majority of world’s poor

Welfare affected by:
own-country policies
rest of world’s policies

Hence need global coverage of price distortions

Global poverty and food insecurity could be reduced
through policy reforms
Some of the key questions
To what extent do govts. insulate domestic
food markets from int’l price fluctuations?
What are the effects of interventions at
different stages of the value chain on food
security
Are there differences between:
HICs and DCs?
Rising or falling int’l price?
Food-surplus and food-deficit countries?
Food staples and non-staple farm products?
WB price indexes, 1990-2013
300
Agricultural Price Index
Food Price Index
250 Grain Price Index
200
150
100
50
0
Farmer’s share in fob prices in Ethiopia
0.90
Coffee
0.80 Oilseeds
s ) Pulses
ee 0.70
cc
irpirP
b B 0.60
oO
f F
n/
ie
ec 0.50
rir
ap
h
se
’ta 0.40
sg
r
em-
m
rra 0.30
aF
F(
0.20
0.10
0.00
Source: Authors’ estimates based on NRA estimates from Anderson and Nelgen (2012).
Outputs of World Bank’s DAI project
Global database (by country plus regional and
global aggregates)

Analytical histories of price distortions
4 regional & 1 global volume
plus >100 more-detailed Working Papers

Analyses of causes and effects:
Anderson, K. (ed.), The Political Economy of Agricultural Price
Distortions, Cambridge University Press.
Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural
Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, World Bank.
Country coverage for Asia

12 Asian countries included in the study
Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia
Pakistan
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
of a total of
82 countries Thailand
Vietnam
More than half a century of data: 1955-2011
75 agricultural commodities
updated to
2010/2011, based
again on OECD’s PSEs
average 11 per country and
plus, for other DCs,
70% of value of production
domestic & border
price indexes
Estimates of
nominal rates of
assistance (NRAs),
and consumer tax
equivalents (CTEs)
Country information:
Crop area
Production and Consumption in tonnes or nb of livestock
Price variables
• Farm-gate selling price
• Wholesale price
• Primary
• At different stage of processed product
• Mark-ups
• Cif import price
• Fob export price
• International reference price
• Exchange rates
Trade variables (Trade status, Imports, Exports)
Stock changes, inputs use of product
Other variables: Fertilizer, Pesticides, Credits, Fuel, Electricity, Water, Employment