[Dissertation] The Economics of Agricultural Research in British Punjab and Pakistani Punjab 1905-1975

388 Pages·1978·12.204 MB·English

by  Carl E. Pray

THE ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN BRITISH PUNJAB
AND
PAKISTANI PUNJAB 1905-1975
Carl E. Pray
A DISSERTATION
IN
ECONOMIC HISTORY
Presented to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Pennsylvania
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor
of Philosophy.
1978
iraduate Group Chairman
To My Mother and Mary
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER II
PRODUCTION STATISTICS AND THE GROWTH IN AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION 13
A. British Punjab 13
1. Introduction 13
2. Official Data Gathering Procedure 14
3. The Reliability 17
a. Acreage of Crops 17
b. Level of Yield Estimates 20
c. Trend in Yield Estimates 33
4. Sources of Growth 50
B. Pakistani Punjab 59
1. Introduction 59
2. Reliability of the Official Statistics 60
a. Acreage Statistics 60
b. Yield Per Acre 61
3. Sources of Growth 90
C. Conclusions 100
CHAPTER III
THE DEVELOPMENT AND OUTPUT OF THE PUNJAB AGRICULTURE DEPART­
MENT 109
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A. Introduction 109
1. PunjaJo History Ill
2. Budget Growth . , 113
B. Education 116
C. Extension 126
1. British Punjab 126
2. Partition 139
3. One Unit and Present Day Extension 142
D. Research 152
1. Agricultural Chemistry and Engineering 153
2. Plant Breeding 158
a. Output 159
b. Economic Model 165
i. Supply and Demand 166
ii. Motivation 169
iii. Technology of Plant Breeding . . . 176
c. Explanation of Patterns of New Variety
Development 185
i. Cotton 193
ii. Wheat 207
iii. Other Crops 218
d. Conclusion 243
CHAPTER IV
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS QF DAP RESEARCH 258
A. Introduction 258
B. British Punjab 258
C. Pakistani Punjab 288
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CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION 340
• A. The Productivity of Agricultural Research 340
B. The Influence of Supply and Demand Factors on the
Output of Public Research Stations 357
C. Conclusions 363
INDEX 36G
BIBLIOGRAPHY 368
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LIST OF TABLES
CHAPTER II
Table 2-1 Number of Districts Covered by Crop-Cutting
Experiments 18
Table 2-2 Consumption of Cotton 1930-37 23
Table 2-3 Cotton Yield Estimates From Various Sources
(maunds/acre raw cotton) 25
Table 2-4 Cultivator's Yields of Sugarcane (maunds of
sugarcane) 26
Table 2-5 Alternative Estimates of Sugarcane Yield
(maunds/acre) 28
Table 2-6 Wheat Yield Estimates (maunds/acre) 30
Table 2-7 Official Yields of Various Crops in East
Punjab 32
Table 2-8 Facts on Crop Yields Per Acre 1907-46 34
Table 2-9 Punjab Cotton Yields in the 1930s on
Irrigated Land (maunds/acre raw cotton) 42
Table 2-10 Irrigated and Unirrigated Sugarcane Yields
1938-46 47
Table 2-11 Average Annual Yields of Sugarcane and Percent
of Acreage Under Improved Sugarcane Varieties . . 49
Table 2-12 Disaggregation of Agricultural Growth 1907-46 .. 58
Table 2-13 Official and Random Sample Area Estimates
(1000 acres) 62
Table 2-14 Yield/Acre of Eight Major Crops 1942-1975
(annual average maunds/acre) 64
Table 2-15 Official and Random Sample Estimates of Wheat
Yields and Production 1944-76 67
Table 2-16 Official and R.S. Yield Estimates of Rice .... 70
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Table 2-17 Availability and Consumption of Foodgrains in
West Pakistan 1959-64 (lbs./year) . . 72
Table 2-18 Consumption vs. Availability of Selected
Cereals, West Pakistan 1963-64 . 74
Table 2-19 Availability vs. Consumption of Selected
Cereals, 1968-69 - 1971-72 76
Table 2-20 Saline and Waterlogged Land Under Cultivation
in Eleven Punjab Districts 79
Table 2-21 Average Annual Rainfall in Lahore and
Rawalpindi 82
Table 2-22 Comparison of Official and R.S. Production
Estimates of Cotton 84
Table 2-23 Per Capita Consumption and Availability of Sugar
Products - 1968-69 - 1971-72 (annual average
lbs. per capita) 87
Table 2-24 Yields of Co 312 at Risalawala 91
Table 2-25 Disaggregation of Agricultural Growth 1951-1975 . 94
Table 2-26 Regression Results Agricultural Output Produc­
tion Function 98
CHAPTER III
Table 3-1 Total DAP Expenditure (current prices) 114
Table 3-2 Expenditure of DAP on Research, Extension
and Education 115
Table 3-3 Faculty of the Agricultural College and
University 119
Table 3-4 Average Annual Expenditure of the Punjab Agri­
cultural College/University 120
Table 3-5 Qualifications of Lyallpur Faculty ....... 122
Table 3-6 Degrees Granted at Lyallpur (annual average) . . 125
Table 3-7 Occupations of Agriculture Graduate in 1926 .. . 127
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Table 3-8 Number of Extension Personnel and Area
Covered 132
Table 3-9 Seed Distribution by DAP Annual Average
(1000 maunds) 137
Table 3-10 Extension Personnel After 1947 in the
Districts of Present Day Punjab 143
Table 3-11 DAP Research Staff by Discipline . . - 154
Table 3-12 Successful New Varieities - All Crops 160
Table 3-13 Average Annual Number of New Crosses of
Wheat 213
Table 3-14 First Use of Breeding Techniques 220
Table 3-15 DAP Botanists and Horticulturalists by Crop
Speciality 225
Table 3-16 Value of Crops and Ratio of Value to Number of
Scientists (crores of current Rs.) 229
CHAPTER IV
Table 4-1 Staple Lengths of Punjabi Cottons 260
Table 4-2 Average Cotton Prices in Khanewal Market
1930-31 - 1940-41 261
Table 4-3 Wheat Yields - Experimental Farms (maunds/
acre) 262
Table 4-4 Wheat Yields by Variety as Estimated by
Sukhatme 265
Table 4-5 Sugarcane Yields - Lyallpur (in terms of gur) . 268
Table 4-6 Sugarcane Yields - Other Experimental Farms
(maunds of gur) 269
Table 4-7 Area Under Improved Varieties 271
Table 4-8 Calculations of k 275
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Table 4-9 The Lower Bound Estimates of Producers
Surplus (annual averages) 281
Table 4-10 Rates of Return to Pre-1947 Research Under
Various Assumptions 289
Table 4-11 Changes in Yield/Acre and Inputs of Four
Crops 291
Table 4-12 Official Estimates of Wheat Yield/Acre by
Variety (mds./acre) 294
Table 4-13 Unofficial Estimates of Wheat Yield/Acre by
Variety 295
Table 4-14 Cotton Varieties Released After 1947 297
Table 4-15 Yield/Acre Old American and New American Cotton
(maunds/acre raw cotton) 304
Table 4-16 Yield Per Acre of Rice Varieties Punjab 305
Table 4-17 Average Yield Per Acre for Different Cane
Varieties 1968-1969 (maunds/acre) 307
Table 4-18 Productivity Change 308
Table 4-19 Percentage of Acreage Under New Varieties
After 1947 310
Table 4-20 Producer's Surplus by Crop 1956-75 (1000*s of
1960 Rs.) 319
Table 4-21 Yield Per Acre Regression Estimates and Growth
Rates of Variables (t statistic in parentheses) . 322
Table 4-22 Internal Rates of Return to Research and Exten­
sion After 1947 333
CHAPTER V
Table 5-1 Rates of Return on Various Projects 347
Table 5-2 Consumption of Punjab Cotton Crop 1937-38
(1000 bales) 361
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LIST OP FIGURES
CHAPTER II
Figure 2-1 Greater Punjab Yield Per Acre of All-Crops,
Foodgrains and Non-Foodgrains, Five Year Moving
Averages, Semilogarithmic Scale 40
CHAPTER III
Figure 3-1 Evenson-Kislev Model of Technological Research . 188
Figure 3-2a Lag Between First Use of Selection Technique and
Release of An Improved Crop Variety 222
Figure 3-2b Lag Between First Use of Hybridization and the
Release of An Improved Crop Variety 223
CHAPTER IV
Figure 4-1 Shift in Supply Due to an Increase in Yield
Per Acre 273
Figure 4-2 Shifts in the Supply and Demand Curves of
Wheat 277
Figure 4-3 Producers Surplus in American Cotton 279
Figure 4-4 Wheat Supply and Demand Conditions After 1947 . . 314
Figure 4-5 Rice Supply and Demand Conditions After 1947 . . 316
Figure 4-6 Sugarcane Supply and Demand Conditions After
1947 318
Figure 4-7 Streams of Economic Benefits From New Crop
Varieties With and Without Local Research .... 327
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