Disaster Theory: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Concepts and Causes

366 Pages·2015·32.592 MB·English

by  David Etkin

Disaster Theory
An Interdisciplinary Approach
to Concepts and Causes
David Etkin
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Dedication
In memory of my parents Ben and Maya, and particularly to my father, the quintessential
academic who at age 96 and two weeks before he passed away, sent me two corrections to my
final chapter.
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xiii
Foreword, by Ian Burton
It is a pleasure for me to respond to the author’s request for a foreword to this most unusual
and readable book. Although based in large part on David Etkin’s lectures at York University
in Toronto, this is not a standard textbook. It is rather a very broad, sweeping analysis, and
eclectic tour of the field of disaster studies, both local and global, ancient and modern, theo-
retical and practical. David is by profession a physicist and a meteorologist and he brings some
of that background expertise and insight into his book. He also casts a much wider net and
draws upon an impressive range of fields and literatures to raise questions about disasters.
Most pedagogic books provide or attempt to provide answers. This book is more Socratic in
approach. Questions are raised and explored. Relevant information is provided but the author
makes few definitive statements. This book is not designed to provide answers but to provoke
thought and analysis.
Hence, what is learned from this book depends very much on the reader and what the
reader brings to the study of disasters – be it a fascination with definitions and epistemology;
a love of data and statistics; the imagination of a modeler; or an orientation to the literary, his-
torical, poetic, ethical dimensions of life and its risks, or some personal experiences. I know of
no other book quite like this.
Reading it stimulated me to think of the evolution of the social construction of disas-
ters. Disasters were once quite rare and infrequent, or occurred in faraway places and were not
heard about or reported. They were also mostly considered to be local or place-based events.
Of course, some really major disasters did occur or were believed to have occurred – like Noah’s
flood, for example, or the Lisbon earthquake, or the epidemics of the plague. Thus they were
either overwhelming Acts of God or problems that could be largely managed and contained
within the regions where they occurred.
In the modern era, the idea that disasters are Acts of God persists despite overwhelming
evidence to the contrary. The growth of science and technology from the seventeenth century
onward led to an expectation that science and technology could be advanced and deployed to
help control the natural forces themselves (flood control, for example), or to reduce losses by
improving capacity for forecasting and warning and understanding where and when extreme
events would be more likely to occur. This science-based approach was coupled with a human-
itarian concern in which external help was made available in situations where the affected
places and people could not cope. More recently, over the last five decades or more, such
approaches have gradually come to be seen as too limited. It has been argued that disasters
result more from the day-to-day choices made by people over long periods of time. Disasters
are made “by design.” Two big elements in the design of disasters are exposure and vulner-
ability. The rapid growth of human populations and the associated wealth, infrastructure, and
other assets has put much more at risk. A currently prevailing view in the disaster risk man-
agement and reduction communities is that such steps as improved land-use planning (keep-
ing development away from high risk areas) and improved building designs and standards
could play a major role. There has been much expansion in an apparent capacity to apply and
implement such actions but experience suggests that they have not been well or effectively
applied. After a disaster, new plans and regulations are frequently adopted amid resolutions
xv
xvi Foreword, by Ian Burton
and promises that things will be “built back better.” Such resolutions can soon be forgotten in
the face of other development priorities that may themselves be unsustainable. While efforts to
correct past mistakes are sometimes successful, there often remains a lack of attention to the
creation of new and greater risks.
This book points to the need for new thinking about disasters triggered by extreme events
but which are largely created by human choices, and it challenges the reader to contribute to
the new thinking. Why, despite much greater scientific understanding of the frequency, timing,
and location of extreme events, does exposure and vulnerability continue to grow? Why have
decades of experience and policy innovations not led to an effective adoption of planning and
vulnerability reduction? To what extent might it be true to say that disasters are not simply
unique, place-based events but share some common underlying root causes that could help to
explain the growing disaster epidemic?
A careful reading of this book can lead to creative ideas in response to this and the many
other questions raised.
Ian Burton
March 19, 2014
Preface
Life moves very fast. It rushes from Heaven to Hell in a matter of seconds.
Paulo Coelho
Disasters engage us on many levels; they create a sense of awe in terms of the damage and
chaos they create, they saturate and numb our emotions, and they arouse our curiosity. My
interest in disasters began when I was a meteorologist forecasting weather in the provinces
of Nova Scotia and Ontario, Canada. As part of a (now defunct) government research team
called the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group in Environment Canada, I was fortunate
to have Dr Ian Burton as a director. As a global expert in the area of hazard management, he
connected me with others in the field and enabled my education about disasters from a social
science perspective, a challenging transition from the physics background I entered the field
from. Thank you Ian…
Extreme events like tornadoes or severe storms were always interesting to me from sev-
eral perspectives, particularly in terms of their impact on people and communities. As I read
and observed more about them and studied case studies of disasters, it became clear to me
that their occurrence generally had much more to do with how people live and construct their
physical and social spaces than about the actual hazard itself. I have continued to study disas-
ters both as a government scientist located at the University of Toronto and later as a professor
in the field of disaster management at York University, and to be fascinated by their power and
complexity, saddened by their impacts, and frustrated by the actions people continue to take
that make themselves vulnerable.
Over time our knowledge has increased enormously, along with our technical compe-
tence, and yet disaster losses continue to escalate. People create most of the disasters that
affect us in the presence of the knowledge it takes to avoid them. Clearly, we are doing some-
thing wrong, and understanding why this is so is fundamental to disaster risk reduction.
I wish to dedicate this book to my family, who have supported my journey into academia,
to my children Jonathan, Stephanie and Heidi and my grandaughter Alexandra, who repre-
sent our future, and especially to my wife Deborah, who edited this volume. As well, I want to
acknowledge the many dedicated people who devote themselves to reducing the horrendous
impact disasters have on so many of us. First responders are high profile, often thought of as
heroes, and always a ppreciated. But there are many emergency managers and other people in
the field of hazard management who work in the background to mitigate or prevent disasters.
They are rarely recognized or thanked, and they deserve to be.
xvii
Introduction
The more things change, the more they remain the same.
(Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.)
Alphonse Karr (“Les Guêpes”)
This book is about understanding disaster. There are many ways that this could be approached,
depending on the discipline, profession, and the author’s purpose. Although my education was
originally in physics and mathematics, and I come from a professional background of meteo-
rology and environmental issues, I am taking a broad and holistic approach that emphasizes
the social sciences. I do this because I see human behavior as the primary reason we create
vulnerable communities that experience disaster—this is the area where we can exert the most
influence on reducing disaster risk. I do not mean to diminish the importance of the physical
sciences in the study of this field; they are essential. But they are also insufficient, and one of
the main purposes of this book is to provide an understanding of the various ways people relate
to and cope with disaster risk.
In the field of disaster studies there is a noteworthy gap between theory and the actual
practice of disaster risk reduction. This gap is diminishing, but the newness of the academic
side of the field and the emergence of the practitioner community from civil defense has cre-
ated a situation where much that is known is not used. In the medical field a transition to evi-
dence-based practice was formally introduced in 1992—an approach that has spread to other
disciplines. More emphasis needs to be placed on this approach in the practice of disaster and
emergency management. Doing this means incorporating the knowledge gained from good
theoretical and empirical research into how we reduce disaster risk. It is this research that is the
driving force behind the organization of this book, linking the theoretical underpinnings of this
field of study with empiricism and practice.
Since the mid-20th Century there have been an enormous number of disasters that have
taken a terrible toll on people and their communities. Because of this, government, nongovern-
mental organizations, and universities have all begun to pay increasing attention to the study
of disaster and disaster management. One of the results of this growing awareness is programs
such as the one I work in at York University, Toronto, Canada, and the graduate course on disas-
ter theory that I teach. In Canada, such programs have been around for about a decade, but
over time they will transform the profession of disaster and emergency management into one
with a much more holistic approach than has historically been used.
Predicting the future is not an easy task, but it seems to me that the world in which
we are living is going through a transformation. The massive trends of globalization,
urbanization, climate change, terrorism, population growth, species extinction, the rise
of sea level, and the growth of novel technologies combine to alter old hazards, create
new ones, and make societies vulnerable in ways that they have not been before. Cop-
ing with these changes is more than challenging and requires a constant questioning of
xix
xx Introduction
the theories, models, and assumptions upon which our understanding of disaster risk
construction is based.
This book was written with students in mind, but it is also appropriate for profes-
sionals working within the field who want to gain a better understanding of theory and
how it affects the practice of disaster risk reduction. It is also appropriate for the educated
layperson who simply has an interest in this field of study. As much as possible, I have
illustrated theory with examples and case studies to avoid the “ivory tower syndrome.” The
most fundamental question to be asked in the study of disasters is, What are they? That is
the subject of the first chapter. The second chapter is a report on global disaster data with a
commentary on the uncertainties inherent in the data sets and how biases can be created,
depending on how they are constructed and used. Disaster data suffer from the irony that
as they become more robust, they suffer from problems of representativeness. For example,
the insurance industry has good data on what disasters cost them, but that alone is a rather
poor indicator of most disasters. In the third chapter I address various aspects of risk theory
that are particularly relevant to disaster risk; in particular, I focus on social construction-
ism, risk homeostasis, risk perception, and issues related to the measurement of risk. Many
fields of study address the issue of risk, and each tends to have its own terminology and set
of definitions. A discussion of this area must begin with simply accepting a terminology
and then moving forward. Chapter 4 deals with the most important aspects of vulnerabil-
ity and resilience theory. Resilience is the new catchword within the disaster field, and it
is certainly a very useful approach to risk reduction. One should not jump too quickly on
the bandwagon, though—approaches that address vulnerability and robustness are still
critical. Chapter 5 addresses the fascinating topic of complexity and how our understand-
ing of complex systems may be relevant to understanding the evolution of disasters, as well
as which management strategies might be most effective. This area is not yet well devel-
oped and is ripe for future research. Chapter 6 overviews a number of different disaster
models that are used by various groups and organizations as tools to assist with managing
disaster risk. The choice of which model to use can be important in terms of outcomes,
and professionals in this field should have a good sense of the strengths and weaknesses
of each. A model is not a theory and is not right or wrong in itself; the usefulness of mod-
els is contingent on their utility with respect to a person’s or institution’s particular goal.
Chapter 7 deals with the topic of disaster myths and fallacies. These misunderstandings
sometimes play out in significant ways in terms of planning processes and response, and
theoreticians and practitioners should be familiar with the research that has been done
on them. The idea for Chapter 8 came from a Leonard Cohen concert I attended with my
wife. Enthralled by his musical poetry, I wondered to what extent people use this and other
forms of literature to understand disaster. The answer, I learned, is that it is used a great
deal! It seems natural for people to use stories, poetry, and art as tools to help them come
to terms with loss. Chapter 9 deals with the issue of ethics and disaster, a topic addressed
too infrequently within the emergency management community, although it is commonly
addressed in other fields such as humanitarian aid or health. Ethics must be the basis
for management principles but often are not addressed. The final chapter provides an
opportunity for students to engage in a workshop, to develop sets of principles for various
scenarios.
As I often do, in 2012 I attended the annual Federal Emergency Management Agency
conference on higher education in emergency management, held during June on the beau-
tiful Federal Emergency Management Agency campus in Emmitsburg, Maryland, where I
sat in on a session addressing emergency management theory. One of the questions asked
Introduction xxi
was which theories and scholars each of us base our teaching on. There was little agree-
ment! Coming at the field from a variety of disciplines and focusing on various aspects
of the disaster problem results in a multitude of perspectives. Disaster theory has not yet
coagulated, and given the nature of the problem, it may always be a fuzzy beast. Not every-
body will agree with my choice of topics for this book, but I consider them to be the most
critical in terms of understanding why and how disasters happen and how we need to deal
with them.
As an academic in this field I have read about many historical and recent events, while
at the same time watching new ones unfold. Some disasters such as the Haiti earthquake are
sad replays of old themes, whereas others such as the Fukushima nuclear meltdown offer new
twists as a result of the changing world in which we live. Yet all of them revolve around human
behavior and decision making, which in many ways are not very different from ancient times.
To illustrate this, I offer the following two quotes.
As it was, their judgment was based more on wishful thinking than on a
sound calculation of probabilities: for the usual thing among men is that
when they want something they will, without any reflection, leave that to
hope, while they will employ the full force of reason in rejecting what they find
unpalatable.
Thucydides, 425 BC, The Peloponnesian Wars
Thereupon one of the priests, who was of a very great age, said: O Solon, Solon, you
Hellenes are never anything but children, and there is not an old man among you.
Solon in return asked him what he meant. I mean to say, he replied, that in mind
you are all young; there is no old opinion handed down among you by ancient
tradition, nor any science which is hoary with age. And I will tell you why. There
have been, and will be again, many destructions of mankind arising out of many
causes; the greatest have been brought about by the agencies of fire and water, and
other lesser ones by innumerable other causes…. In the first place you remember a
single deluge only, but there were many previous ones.
Egyptian Priest to Solon, the Athenian lawgiver, from Plato, Timaeus, 360 BC
Disasters are holistic, unbounded by disciplinary or political boundaries. They have
historical and cultural roots and need to be understood in context. They affect people
differently, depending on culture, class, race, socioeconomic status, worldview, and psy-
chology. There are winners and there are losers, not only in the aftermath of disaster but
particularly as a result of the construction of risk, which benefits some while diminishing
others. Our most fundamental concerns about disasters are rooted in ethics and empathy,
and it is through those windows that efforts to manage them must be viewed.
It made sense to me to begin this book with a description of a disaster, and I chose the
Lisbon disaster of 1755 (Figure 1). This is a fascinating event not only because it was so terribly
destructive but also because it engaged society in a religious and philosophical debate that
challenged their most fundamental assumptions about God and the world in which they lived.
As well, it led to a restructuring of political power in Portugal and of the built environment.
How those changes happened and the long-term outcomes from them demonstrate important
lessons.