Table Of ContentDicingwithDeath
LivingbyData
AsaresultoftheCOVID-19pandemic,medicalstatisticsandpublic
healthdatahavebecomestaplesofnewsfeedsworldwide,withinfection
rates,deaths,casefatalitiesandthemysteriousRfigurefeaturing
regularly. However,wedon’tallhavethestatisticalbackgroundneeded
totranslatethisinformationintoknowledge. Inthislivelyaccount,
StephenSennexplainsthesestatisticalphenomenaanddemonstrates
howstatisticsisessentialtomakingrationaldecisionsaboutmedical
care.
Thesecondeditionhasbeenthoroughlyupdatedtocoverthe
developmentsofthelasttwodecadesandincludesanewchapteronthe
medicalstatisticalchallengesofCOVID-19,alongwithadditional
materialoninfectiousdiseasemodellingandtherepresentationof
womeninclinicaltrials.Sennentertainswithanecdotes,puzzlesand
paradoxeswhiletacklingbigthemes,including:clinicaltrialsandthe
developmentofmedicines,life-tables,vaccinesandtheirrisksorlackof
them,smokingandlungcancer,andeventhepowerofprayer.
Published online by Cambridge University Press
Published online by Cambridge University Press
Dicing with Death
Living by Data
second edition
stephen senn
StatisticalConsultant
Published online by Cambridge University Press
UniversityPrintingHouse,Cambridgecb28bs,UnitedKingdom
OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,ny10006,USA
477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,vic3207,Australia
314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre,
NewDelhi–110025,India
103PenangRoad,#05–06/07,VisioncrestCommercial,Singapore238467
CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge.
ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108999861
doi:10.1017/9781009000185
©StephenSenn2003,2023
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2003
Thirdprintingwithcorrections2006
Secondedition2023
PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyTJBooksLimited,PadstowCornwall
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
names:Senn,Stephen,author.
title:Dicingwithdeath:livingbydata/StephenSenn.
description:SecondEdition.|Cambridge,UnitedKingdom;NewYork,NY:
CambridgeUniversityPress,2023.|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
identifiers:lccn2022024075(print)|lccn2022024076(ebook)|isbn
9781108999861(paperback)|isbn9781009000185(ebook)
subjects:lcsh:Medicalstatistics.|Medicine–Philosophy.|Medicalcare–
Statisticalmethods.
classification:lccra407.s462023(print)|lccra407(ebook)|ddc610.2/
1–dc23/eng/20220816
LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2022024075
LCebookrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2022024076
isbn978-1-108-99986-1Paperback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof
URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication
anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,
accurateorappropriate.
Published online by Cambridge University Press
ForVictoria,HelenandMark
Published online by Cambridge University Press
...thetwainwerecastingdice
‘Thegameisdone!I’vewon!I’vewon!’
Quothsheandwhistlesthrice.
SamuelTaylorColeridge,TheRimeoftheAncientMariner
Published online by Cambridge University Press
Contents
PrefacetotheSecondEdition pageix
PrefacetotheFirstEdition xiii
Permissions xvi
1 CirclingtheSquare 1
2 TheDicemanCometh 28
3 TrialsofLife 54
4 OfDiceandMen 74
5 SexandtheSinglePatient 97
6 AHaleViewofPills(andOtherMatters) 121
7 Time’sTables 135
8 ADipinthePool 157
9 TheThingsthatBugUs 178
10 TheLawIsaAss 206
11 TheEmpireoftheSum 234
12 GoingViral 255
Notes 297
Index 317
[vii]
Published online by Cambridge University Press
Published online by Cambridge University Press
Preface to the Second Edition
IwroteDicingwithDeathasanattempttoexplaintoalayaudiencewhatit
wasthatstatisticians,andinparticularmedicalstatisticians,did.Atthe
time I felt that non-statisticians could, perhaps, be divided into two
classes: those who had never encountered statistics (as a subject) and
couldnotimagineanycircumstanceinwhichtheywouldwantto,and
thosewhohadencounteredstatisticsalreadyandcouldnotimagineany
circumstanceinwhichtheywouldwishtodosoagain.Thiswas,Ifelt,an
unsatisfactory state of affairs, and the book was my small attempt to
remedythematter.
LittledidIimaginetowhatextentmedicalstatistics,asaresultofthe
COVID-19pandemic,wouldbecomethestapleofnewsfeeds,withinfec-
tionrates,deaths,casefatalities,themysteriousRfigure,vaccineefficacy
and clinicaltrialsfiguringregularly. Icanreassure thereader,however,
thatifthisisthecostofmakingthepublicfamiliarwithmedicalstatistics,
itistoohigh. Itooprefertheoldarrangement.
However,theoldarrangementofourlivesisnotavailable,andwhen
DavidTranahatCambridgecontactedmeaskingifIwouldbeprepared
toconsiderasecondeditionIveryquicklysaid‘yes’.Theresultisbefore
youandincludesanextrachapteronthestatisticsofCOVID-19,butalso
newmaterialinChapter5covering,inparticular,therepresentationof
women in clinical trials and also new material on infectious disease
modellinginChapter9,withvariousotherdiscussionsandfigures(for
example,onlifeexpectancy)broughtuptodate.
Withthefirstedition,Ialwaysfeltthatthelastchapter(Chapter11)
wasagoodonetostartwithandthatChapter9wasthemostdemanding.
Now I shall suggest some different strategies for reading. If you are
interested primarily in COVID you might start with the new chapter
[ix]
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009000185.001 Published online by Cambridge University Press
