Dice World: Science and Life in a Random Universe

284 Pages·2013·2.488 MB·English

by  Clegg, Brian

DICE
WORLD
Science and life in
a random universe
BRIAN CLEGG
IICCOONN
Printed edition published in the UK in 2013 by
Icon Books Ltd, Omnibus Business Centre,
39–41 North Road, London N7 9DP
email: [email protected]
www.iconbooks.net
This electronic edition published in 2013 by Icon Books Ltd
ISBN: 978-184831-564-8 (ePub format)
ISBN: 978-184831-565-5 (Adobe ebook format)
Text copyright © 2013 Brian Clegg
The author has asserted his moral rights.
No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, or by any means,
without prior permission in writing from the publisher.
Typeset by Marie Doherty
Contents
Acknowledgements ix
Chapter 0: Alea jacta est 1
Chapter 1: Improbable world 5
Finding patterns 7
The patterns of science 8
The randomness confusion 11
Weighing up risk 13
From classical to chaos 14
Chapter 2: More random than random 21
The success factor 23
Random success 27
Superstition conjures causation 31
A natural cycle 36
Chapter 3: A measure for luck 39
The inhuman economist 42
Gambling with chance 46
Chapter 4: It’s all in the stats 53
What’s it worth? 55
The law of large numbers 60
Distributing the outcomes 62
Chapter 5: The clockwork universe 69
The universe according to Newton 71
No need for that hypothesis 75
Chapter 6: Just three bodies 81
Relativity becomes special 84
The eternal triangle 85
v
Dice WorlD
Chapter 7: Chaos! 91
The unpredictables 94
The next bestseller 98
Chapter 8: Statistical substance 105
Sample selection 107
Blinded by science 110
All in the context 112
Statistics aren’t fair 115
The rare event 119
Chapter 9: What does random mean? 123
Generating randomness 127
Cherry picking 131
The unbalanced target 134
How significant is significant? 136
Probability on trial 142
The sources of randomness 144
Chapter 10: Really random 147
Into the quantum atom 151
The light revolution 154
A case of uncertainty 156
Chapter 11: No quantum cats 159
In the quantum tunnel 161
Dead or alive? 163
Interpreting the quantum 166
Chapter 12: Improbable world redux 171
The quantum mechanical window 173
Einstein’s hidden truths 176
Quantum secrecy 181
Computing with quanta 185
Beam me up 189
vi
Contents
Chapter 13: Follow the heat 193
Laying down the law 195
The law of change 199
Quantifying disorder 203
Entropy plays dice 205
Chapter 14: Maxwell’s demon 209
Unmixing the mixture 210
Uniqueness is disorder 213
The mystery of time 216
The clockwork runs down 218
Chapter 15: Crystal balls and winning goats 223
It’s in the stars 224
Future vision 227
A simulated world 229
Cars and goats 231
Born on a Tuesday 234
Chapter 16: The Reverend Bayes and the golden retriever 239
The case of the informative mug 240
Good guesses are better than nothing 244
Mr Bayes’s oracle 247
Chapter 17: Free will? 251
My lucky numbers 253
I had no choice 258
A spanner in the clockwork 260
The random deity 263
Index 267
vii

Acknowledgements
For Gillian, Rebecca and Chelsea.
With particular thanks to Keith Rapley and the late
John Carney, my mentors when working in operational
research – arguably the ultimate discipline for applying
probability and statistics to real-world problems.
Many thanks to all those who have helped make
this book possible, especially Duncan Heath, my editor
at Icon Books, and all the contributions from Andrew
Furlow, Dr Peet Morris, Denni Saunders, Dr M.G. Harris,
Cathy Murphy, Perry Rees, Katherine Kelly, Paul Tuck,
Amanda Lever, Edward Cope, Helen Witney, Dr Henry
Gee, Mats Anderson, Liz Warrick, Stacey Croft, Desney
Harrington, Kathy Peacock, Sarah Mussi, Matt Brown,
Euan Adie, Ethan Friedman, Lynn Price, Amy Cope,
Chris Reeves, Diane Rendell, Sue Broughton, Mark
Lloyd, David Howkins, Stephen Godden, Dr Harriet
Dunbar-Morris, Oriana Morrison-Clarke, Stewart Desson
and Henry Lord.