DEVELOPMENT OF A PROJECT COMPLEXITY ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR ENERGY ...

259 Pages·2016·3.67 MB·English

DEVELOPMENT OF A PROJECT COMPLEXITY ASSESSMENT
METHOD FOR ENERGY MEGAPROJECTS

Ehsan Kian Manesh Rad
Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Heriot-Watt University
School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructures and Society
February 2016

The copyright in this thesis is owned by the author. Any quotation from the
thesis or use of any of the information contained in it must acknowledge
this thesis as the source of the quotation or information.
ABSTRACT
Megaprojects are characterised by their large-scale capital expenditure, long duration
and significant levels of technical and process complexity. Empirical data show that
megaprojects in the energy sector experience alarming rates of failure, such as cost
overruns, delays in completion and production shortfalls. One of the main causes of
failure is their high level of complexity and the absence of effective tools to assess and
manage it. Project complexity has received increasing attention in recent years, both in
academia and the industry. However, there is still a lack of consensus on a clear
definition for ‘project complexity’ or a comprehensive list of complexity indicators,
specifically for energy megaprojects. Furthermore, there is also a lack of a widely
accepted assessment method to measure project complexity in a quantitative manner.
This study is carried out in response to these problems. First, it develops a taxonomy of
project complexity indicators on the basis of a comprehensive review and synthesis of
existing literature. It includes 51 internal and external Project Complexity Indicators
(PCIs) in a logical hierarchical structure; these indicators specify the aspects that need
to be measured when assessing project complexity. Second, weights for all indicators
are established through an integrated Delphi-AHP method, with the participation of 20
international experts. Finally, the study specifies Numerical Scoring Criteria (NSCs) for
all indicators based on a synthesis of existing knowledge about megaprojects. The
criteria specify the scoring thresholds, on a 1-5 scale, for each indicator. These three
components constitute a new Project Complexity Assessment (PCA) method, which is
implemented as a spreadsheet PCA tool. The developed tool allows a project team to
assess and score their project in each of the PCIs against the defined criteria. It then
calculates two separate complexity indices for internal and external factors; the results
indicate the complexity level of the project. Complexity profiles are also produced to
illustrate the complexity scores of different categories of PCIs.
The PCA method is tested using an energy megaproject case study. The results
demonstrate not only that the tool can help a project team understand the complexity of
their project, but also it can help the team to develop appropriate complexity
management strategies by comparing the assessment results of different projects.

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DEDICATION

This Thesis is dedicated to my Parents, Mehdi and Shahla.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I would like to extend my profound thanks to my supervisor Professor Ming Sun for his
excellent expertise and mentoring during my study. His gifted personality, immense
knowledge, motivation and belief have helped me to accomplish this task. The memory
he has implanted in me will remain forever.
I also offer my sincere gratitude to my second supervisor, Dr. Frédéric Bosché, for his
valuable advice, encouragement and support during my study. Without support from both
supervisors, this thesis would not have evolved as it has.
I would like to thank all the respondents to the questionnaires, interviews and case study for
their valuable contribution, time, and the effort they spent, which made this study possible.
I would like to thank my parents, Mehdi and Shahla, for their love and dedications
which leaves me speechless, their love encouraged me to reach the end of this hard
journey. A special “thank you” also goes to all my family for supporting me with their
best wishes.
Every moment of my life during this period I have been engaged with ups and downs;
however, being with lovely friends has made it enjoyable. I especially thank Harijanto,
Jennifer, Francesca, Giuseppe, Arman, Parastoo, Majid, Afrooz, Morteza, Mojtaba and
Babak.
Finally, I offer this quote from Carlos Castenda:
“Look at every path closely and deliberately, then ask ourselves this crucial question:
Does this path have a heart? If it does, then the path is good. If it doesn't, it is of no use”

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ACADEMIC REGISTRY
Research Thesis Submission
Name: EHSAN KIAN MANESH RAD
School/PGI: EGIS
Version: (i.e. First, FINAL Degree Sought PhD in Construction
Resubmission, Final) (Award and
Subject area)

Declaration

In accordance with the appropriate regulations I hereby submit my thesis and I declare that:

1) the thesis embodies the results of my own work and has been composed by myself
2) where appropriate, I have made acknowledgement of the work of others and have made
reference to work carried out in collaboration with other persons
3) the thesis is the correct version of the thesis for submission and is the same version as
any electronic versions submitted*.
4) my thesis for the award referred to, deposited in the Heriot-Watt University Library, should
be made available for loan or photocopying and be available via the Institutional
Repository, subject to such conditions as the Librarian may require
5) I understand that as a student of the University I am required to abide by the Regulations
of the University and to conform to its discipline.

* Please note that it is the responsibility of the candidate to ensure that the correct version
of the thesis is submitted.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... ii
DEDICATION ................................................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT .................................................................................................. iv
RESEARCH THESIS SUBMISSION FORM .................................................................. v
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. vi
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... x
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xi
LIST OF PUBLICATIONS ........................................................................................... xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xiv
Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Background and Problem ............................................................................................ 1
1.3 Research scope ............................................................................................................ 3
1.4 Aim and objectives ...................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Research Methodology ................................................................................................ 4
1.6 Structure of the thesis .................................................................................................. 6
Chapter 2 Megaprojects and Project Complexity ...................................................... 8
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 8
2.2 Megaprojects ............................................................................................................... 8
2.2.1 Definition ................................................................................................................ 8
2.2.2 Characteristics of megaprojects ............................................................................ 10
2.2.3 Existing Problems of megaprojects ....................................................................... 12
2.3 Project complexity ..................................................................................................... 15
2.3.1 Definition .............................................................................................................. 16
2.3.2 Aspects of project complexity ............................................................................... 17
2.3.3 Megaprojects and project complexity ................................................................... 21
2.4 Chapter summary ....................................................................................................... 21
Chapter 3 Project complexity assessment methods ................................................. 23
3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 23
3.2 Complexity assessment methods research ................................................................. 23
3.2.1 Process-based methods .......................................................................................... 23
3.2.2 Numerical methods ............................................................................................... 25
3.2.3 Framework type methods ...................................................................................... 26
3.3 Complexity assessment methods in practice ............................................................. 30
3.3.1 PMI method ........................................................................................................... 30
3.3.2 Project Complexity and Risk Assessment Tool (PCRA) ...................................... 31
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3.3.3 Helmsman Institute method .................................................................................. 33
3.3.4 Global Alliance for Project Performance Standards (GAPPS) ............................. 34
3.4 Preliminary empirical investigation ........................................................................... 37
3.5 Chapter summary ....................................................................................................... 43
Chapter 4 Research Methodology............................................................................ 44
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 44
4.2 Research philosophy .................................................................................................. 44
4.3 Research approaches.................................................................................................. 45
4.3.1 Qualitative / Quantitative Approach ..................................................................... 45
4.3.2 Deductive / Inductive ............................................................................................ 46
4.4 Research methods for this study ................................................................................ 47
4.4.1 Literature review and synthesis ............................................................................. 47
4.4.2 Interviews .............................................................................................................. 48
4.4.3 Delphi and AHP methods ...................................................................................... 48
4.4.4 Expert review ........................................................................................................ 49
4.4.5 Case study ............................................................................................................. 50
4.5 Integrated Delphi-AHP method ................................................................................. 50
4.5.1 Prioritising process ................................................................................................ 51
4.5.2 Consensus Process ................................................................................................ 64
4.5.3 Integration of AHP and Delphi ............................................................................. 69
4.6 Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................... 71
Chapter 5 Development of the Taxonomy of Project Complexity Indicators ......... 73
5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 73
5.2 Selecting project complexity indicators from literature ............................................ 73
5.2.1 Identifying the sources .......................................................................................... 73
5.2.2 Eliciting PCIs ........................................................................................................ 83
5.3 Establishing a taxonomy of PCIs ............................................................................... 90
5.3.1 Constructing the taxonomy of PCIs ...................................................................... 90
5.3.2 Taxonomy of PCIs .............................................................................................. 101
5.4 Chapter summary ..................................................................................................... 106
Chapter 6 Establishing Weights for Project Complexity Indicators ...................... 107
6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 107
6.2 Selecting experts ...................................................................................................... 107
6.3 Delphi-AHP round 1 (Consistency checking) ......................................................... 109
6.3.1 Structuring the AHP model hierarchy ................................................................. 110
6.3.2 Providing weight valuation matrices ................................................................... 112
6.3.3 Consistency checking .......................................................................................... 113
6.3.4 Automatic consistency checking and scenario analysis ...................................... 114
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6.3.5 Results of round 1 ............................................................................................... 115
6.4 Delphi-AHP round 2 (Consensus building) ............................................................. 116
6.4.1 Feedback to experts ............................................................................................. 117
6.4.2 Results of round 2 Consensus-building ............................................................... 118
6.5 Calculating final weights for PCIs ........................................................................... 119
6.6 Chapter summary ..................................................................................................... 126
Chapter 7 Specifying Numerical Scoring Criteria for Project Complexity Indicators
…. .......................................................................................................... 128
7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 128
7.2 Extracting criteria from the literature ...................................................................... 129
7.2.1 Identifying sources .............................................................................................. 129
7.2.2 Synthesis analysis ................................................................................................ 129
7.2.3 Interpretive analysis ............................................................................................ 130
7.2.4 Defining numerical scales ................................................................................... 132
7.3 Expert review for refining NSCs ............................................................................. 132
7.3.1 Selecting experts. ................................................................................................ 132
7.3.2 Design of the questionnaire ................................................................................. 133
7.3.3 Analysis of results, refinement of final NSCs ..................................................... 133
7.4 Chapter summary ..................................................................................................... 161
Chapter 8 Evaluation of the PCA method ............................................................. 162
8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 162
8.2 The PCA tool ........................................................................................................... 162
8.3 The case study ......................................................................................................... 164
8.3.1 Preparation .......................................................................................................... 165
8.3.2 Execution............................................................................................................. 166
8.3.3 Analysis and results ............................................................................................. 167
8.4 Reflection on the adopted research approach .......................................................... 175
8.5 Chapter summary ..................................................................................................... 176
Chapter 9 Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................... 178
9.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 178
9.2 Addressing research objectives ............................................................................... 178
9.3 Contribution to Knowledge ..................................................................................... 181
9.3.1 Academic perspective ......................................................................................... 181
9.3.2 Practice perspective ............................................................................................. 182
9.4 A guideline on practical use of the developed PCA method ................................... 183
9.5 Research Limitations ............................................................................................... 184
9.5 Future Research ....................................................................................................... 185
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References ............................................................................................................... 187
Appendix 1: Invitation to participate in Delphi research .............................................. 207
Appendix 2: Round 1 Delphi-AHP questionnaire ........................................................ 210
Appendix 3: Round 2 Delphi-AHP questionnaire ........................................................ 220
Appendix 4: Detailed results of round 1 Delphi-AHP – Consistency-checking ........... 228
Appendix 5: Detailed results of round 2 Delphi-AHP – Consensus-building .............. 230
Appendix 6: Expert review spreadsheet questionnaire in INT-Characteristics ............ 231
Appendix 7: Consistency-checking process based on method of Chiclana et al. (2008) ...
............................................................................................................... 238
Appendix 8: Consensus- building process based on method of Chiclana et al. (2008) 241

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1: The research process ...................................................................................... 5
Figure 2-1: Distilled aspects of project complexity from literature ................................ 20
Figure 4-1: AHP pairwise comparison matrix ................................................................ 58
Figure 4-2: Summarised AHP process ............................................................................ 64
Figure 4-3: Summarised process of Delphi ..................................................................... 69
Figure 4-4: Proposed integrated Delphi-AHP process .................................................... 71
Figure 5-1: Distribution of source publications in year .................................................. 75
Figure 5-2: Process of constructing taxonomy of PCIs .................................................. 92
Figure 5-3: Structure of external category at levels 1 & 2 ............................................ 100
Figure 5-4: Constituted structure of internal category levels 1 & 2 & 3....................... 101
Figure 6-1: Process of selecting experts........................................................................ 108
Figure 6-2: Round 1 Delphi- AHP process ................................................................... 110
Figure 6-3: AHP model hierarchy ................................................................................. 111
Figure 6-4: Round 2 Delphi- AHP process ................................................................... 117
Figure 6-5: Defined ranges of acceptable consensus .................................................... 118
Figure 6-6: Variation of external PCIs local weights among 3 scenarios ..................... 126
Figure 7-1: Process of establishing NSCs and metrics for PCIs ................................... 128
Figure 8-1: Screenshot of user interface ....................................................................... 163
Figure 8-2: An example of results from the PCA tool outputs ..................................... 164
Figure 8-3: Process of case study in research ............................................................... 165
Figure 8-4: Level of complexity in aspects of internal and external complexity and
values of CI ................................................................................................................... 169

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