Development Centre Studies The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Development Centre Studies)

274 Pages·2003·1.45 MB·English

by  Angus Maddison. Published by : OECD Publ

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Development Centre Studies
Development Centre Studies
The World Economy
The World
HISTORICAL STATISTICS
Economy
Following on from his The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, published by the OECD in 2001,
Angus Maddison offers a rare insight into the history and political influence of national accounts
and national accounting. He demonstrates that such statistical data can enlighten the contemporary
and later observer in the analysis of economic phenomena such as growth, market formation
HISTORICAL STATISTICS
and income distribution.
This approach is particularly interesting for developing countries which often lack the expertise or data
to produce good national accounts and are thus deprived of a vital policy-making tool. For OECD
countries, it is a reminder that policies need to be grounded in the reality of verifiable economic data
if they are to succeed.
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ANGUS MADDISON
This work is published under the auspices of the OECD
Development Centre. The Centre promotes comparative ISBN 92-64-10412-7
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Development Centre Studies
The World Economy
HISTORICAL STATISTICS
by
Angus Maddison
DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION
FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into
force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
shall promote policies designed:
– to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of
living in member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the
development of the world economy;
– to contribute to sound economic expansion in member as well as non-member countries in the
process of economic development; and
– to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in
accordance with international obligations.
The original member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became members subsequently
through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969),
Australia (7thJune1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic
(21stDecember1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996), Korea (12thDecember1996)
and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The Commission of the European Communities takes
part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision
of the OECD Council on 23rd October 1962 and comprises twenty-two member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium,
Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg,
Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, as well as Argentina and Brazil
from March 1994, Chile since November 1998 and India since February 2001. The Commission of the European
Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Advisory Board.
The purpose of the Centre is to bring together the knowledge and experience available in member countries of both
economic development and the formulation and execution of general economic policies; to adapt such knowledge and experience
to the actual needs of countries or regions in the process of development and to put the results at the disposal of the countries
by appropriate means.
THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED AND ARGUMENTS EMPLOYED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THOSE OF THE OECD, THE DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OR
THE GOVERNMENTS OF THEIR MEMBER COUNTRIES.
*
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Publié en français sous le titre :
L’économie mondiale
STATISTIQUES HISTORIQUES
© OECD 2003
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Table of Contents
Foreword
This work cuts across the full range of the Development Centre’s 2001–2002 Work Programme
and responds to the Centre’s mandate to “ … bring together the knowledge and experience in Member
countries of both economic development and the formulation and execution of general economic
policies … and to put the results at the disposal of (developing) countries.”
3
The World Economy: Historical Statistics
4
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Foreword................................................................................................................................................ 3
List of Tables in Prologue and Source Notes......................................................................................... 6
List of Basic Tables................................................................................................................................. 7
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 10
Preface.................................................................................................................................................... 11
Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 13
Prologue: The Pioneers of Macromeasurement .................................................................................. 15
HS–1: 29 West European Countries ..................................................................................................... 25
Source notes and estimates 1500, 1600, 1700, 1820-2001 annually
HS–2: Western Offshoots (Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States) ...................... 71
Source notes and estimates, 1500, 1600, 1700, 1820-70 at decade intervals, 1870-2001 annually
Estimates for 1500-1870 show indigenous and white settler economies separately
HS–3: A. East Europe and the Former USSR ...................................................................................... 91
Source notes and estimates for 8 countries (within 1989 frontiers)
1820, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1900, 1913 and annually wherever possible since 1920
B. 7 Successor States of Former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia ..........................................103
C. 15 Successor States of Former USSR ...................................................................................107
HS–4: Latin America ...........................................................................................................................113
Source notes and estimates for 47 countries for 1820, 1850, 1870 and annually since 1900
wherever possible
HS–5: Asia ............................................................................................................................................151
Source notes and estimates for 16 East Asian countries for 1820, 1850 and annually since 1870
wherever possible
Estimates for 26 East Asian and 15 West Asian countries annually 1950-2001
HS–6: Africa .........................................................................................................................................189
Source notes and annual estimates 1950–2001 for 57 countries,
estimates for sample countries and Africa as a whole, 1, 1000, 1500, 1600, 1700, 1820, 1870, 1913
HS–7: The World Economy, 1950–2001 ..............................................................................................225
Source notes and estimates for world and major regions 1950–2001annually
HS–8: The World Economy, 1–2001 AD .............................................................................................241
Source notes and estimates for world and major regions, 11 benchmark years, 1–2001 AD
Select Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................265
5
The World Economy: Historical Statistics
List of Tables in Prologue and Source Notes
Table 1 Gross Domestic Expenditure in England and Wales in 1688 ............................................ 17
Table 2 Structure of British Gross Domestic Expenditure, 1688 and 1996.................................... 18
Table 3 Mulhall’s 1896 Guidelines for Estimates of Value Added by Sector of Economic Activity....... 23
Table 1–1 Population and GDP in Modern and Habsburg Austria, 1830–1913 ................................. 26
Table 1–2 The Impact of Frontier Changes on German GDP, 1870–1991......................................... 28
Table 1–3 Economic Growth in Ireland (Irish Republic) and the United Kingdom, 1820–2001....... 32
Table 1–4 Population and GDP: 13 Small West European Countries, 1950–2001 ............................ 33
Table 2–1 Population and GDP of Australia, 1700–1870.................................................................... 71
Table 2–2 Population and GDP of the United States, 1700–1870 ..................................................... 71
Table 2–3 Alternative Measures of Australian Sector Growth and Structure, 1861–1938/9.............. 73
Table 2–4 Alternative Estimates of Australian Real GDP, calendar years 1861–1938 ....................... 74
Table 2–5 Population and GDP of Canada and New Zealand, 1700–1870........................................ 76
Table 3–1 Good and Ma Proxy Measures of Per Capita GDP............................................................. 94
Table 3–2 Maddison Estimates of Per Capita GDP and Proxies derived from Good and Ma............ 94
Table 3–3 Eastern Europe and Russia: Population and GDP, 1500–1820 ........................................... 95
Table 4–1 The Economies of the Americas: Five regions, 1500–2001..............................................114
Table 4–2 Ethnic Composition of the Americas in 1820....................................................................115
Table 4–3 Net Non–Slave Migration to the Americas, 1500–1998...................................................115
Table 4–4 Arrivals of African Slaves in the Americas, 1500–1870....................................................115
Table 4–5 GDP and Population in 24 Small Caribbean Countries, 1950–2001.................................119
Table 5–1 Population of Undivided India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, 1820–1946.............................152
Table 5–2 Population of Korea, North and South, 1820–1950 ...........................................................153
Table 5–3 16 East Asian Countries: GDP Conjectures and Estimates, 1820–1913............................154
Table 5–4 Population and GDP in 20 Small East Asian Countries, 1950–2001.................................155
Table 5–5 26 East Asian Countries: Conjectures and Estimates for GDP, 1820–1913.......................155
Table 5–6 West Asian Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–1913.........................................156
Table 5–7 Turkish Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–1950................................................157
Table 5–8 Total Asian Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–1913 .........................................158
Table 6–1 African Population, 1–2001 AD .........................................................................................190
Table 6–2 Tentative Conjectures of African GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–1820 AD..........................191
Table 6–3 World Gold Output by Major Region, 1493–1925............................................................194
Table 6–4 Akan (Ghanaian) Gold Production, 1400–1900.................................................................194
Table 6–5 Slave Exports from Black Africa, 650–1900, by Destination ............................................194
Table 6–6 Egyptian Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–2001.............................................197
Table 6–7 Algerian Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–2001.............................................198
Table 6–8 Ghanaian Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1820–2001............................................198
Table 6–9 Length of Railway Line in Service, 1870–1913.................................................................199
Table 6–10 African GDP and Population Movement, 1820–2001 .......................................................200
Table 6–11 Alternative Estimates of 1990 African GDP Levels by ICP and PWT...............................201
Table 7–1 Coverage of World GDP Sample and Proportionate Role of Proxy Measures, 1820–2001 ...226
Table 7–2 Nature of PPP Converters Used to Estimate GDP Levels in the Benchmark Year 1990...230
Table 7–3 Annual Change of World GDP, IMF and Maddison Measures, 1970–2001......................231
Table 8–1 Amendments to GDP Estimates in Maddison (2001) for 1820–1950 ...............................244
Table 8–2 Comparison of Maddison Per Capita GDP Levels
and Prados’ Proxies, 1820–1900 .........................................................................................247
Table 8–3 The Chinese/West European Dichotomy, 1–2001 AD ......................................................249
6
Table of Contents
List of Basic Tables
HS–1
Table 1a Population of 12 West European Countries, 1500–1868 (2 pages) ................................... 34
Table 1a Population of 12 West European Countries, 1869–1918 (2 pages) ................................... 36
Table 1a Population of 12 West European Countries, 1919–1969 (2 pages) ................................... 38
Table 1a Population of 12 West European Countries, 1970–2003 (2 pages) ................................... 40
Table 1a Population of 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1500–1868 ............................ 42
Table 1a Population of 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1869–1918 ............................ 43
Table 1a Population of 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1919–1969 ............................ 44
Table 1a Population of 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1970–2003 ............................ 45
Table 1b GDP Levels in 12 West European Countries, 1500–1868 (2 pages)................................. 46
Table 1b GDP Levels in 12 West European Countries, 1869–1918 (2 pages)................................. 48
Table 1b GDP Levels in 12 West European Countries, 1919–1969 (2 pages)................................. 50
Table 1b GDP Levels in 12 West European Countries, 1970–2001 (2 pages)................................. 52
Table 1b GDP Levels in 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1500–1868.......................... 54
Table 1b GDP Levels in 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1869–1918.......................... 55
Table 1b GDP Levels in 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1919–1969.......................... 56
Table 1b GDP Levels in 4 West European Countries and Total WEC, 1970–2001.......................... 57
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 12 West European Countries, 1500–1868 (2 pages)........................... 58
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 12 West European Countries, 1869–1918 (2 pages)........................... 60
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 12 West European Countries, 1919–1969 (2 pages)........................... 62
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 12 West European Countries, 1970–2001 (2 pages)........................... 64
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 4 West European Countries and Average WEC, 1500–1868 .............. 66
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 4 West European Countries and Average WEC, 1869–1918 .............. 67
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 4 West European Countries and Average WEC, 1919–1969 .............. 68
Table 1c Per Capita GDP in 4 West European Countries and Average WEC, 1970–2001 .............. 69
HS–2
Table 2a Population of Western Offshoots, 1500–1899 ................................................................... 81
Table 2a Population of Western Offshoots, 1900–1955 ................................................................... 82
Table 2a Population of Western Offshoots, 1956–2003 ................................................................... 83
Table 2b GDP Levels in Western Offshoots, 1500–1899................................................................. 84
Table 2b GDP Levels in Western Offshoots, 1900–1955................................................................. 85
Table 2b GDP Levels in Western Offshoots, 1956–2001................................................................. 86
Table 2c Per Capita GDP in Western Offshoots, 1500–1899........................................................... 87
Table 2c Per Capita GDP in Western Offshoots, 1900–1955........................................................... 88
Table 2c Per Capita GDP in Western Offshoots, 1956–2001........................................................... 89
HS–3A
Table 3a Population of Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1820–1949............................................ 96
Table 3a Population of Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1950–2003............................................ 97
Table 3b GDP Levels in Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1820–1949.......................................... 98
Table 3b GDP Levels in Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1950–2002.......................................... 99
7
The World Economy: Historical Statistics
Table 3c Per Capita GDP in Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1820–1949 ...................................100
Table 3c Per Capita GDP in Former Eastern Europe and USSR, 1950–2002 ...................................101
HS–3B
Table 3a Population of Successor Republics of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, 1950–2003.........104
Table 3b GDP Levels in Successor Republics of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, 1990–2001 ......105
Table 3c Per Capita GDP in Successor Republics of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, 1990–2001 ......105
HS–3C
Table 3a Population of Successor Republics of USSR, 1950–2003 (2 pages) ..................................108
Table 3b GDP Levels in Successor Republics of USSR, 1973–2002 (2 pages)................................110
Table 3c Per Capita GDP in Successor Republics of USSR, 1973–2002 (2 pages)..........................110
HS–4
Table 4a Population of 8 Latin American Countries, 1820–1913.....................................................121
Table 4a Population of 8 Latin American Countries, 1914–1949.....................................................122
Table 4a Population of 8 Latin American Countries, 1950–2003.....................................................123
Table 4a Population of 15 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949 (2 pages)...................................124
Table 4a Population of 15 Latin American Countries, 1950–2003 (2 pages)...................................126
Table 4a Population of 47 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949...................................................128
Table 4a Population of 47 Latin American Countries, 1950–2003...................................................129
Table 4b GDP Levels in 8 Latin American Countries, 1820–1913 ..................................................132
Table 4b GDP Levels in 8 Latin American Countries, 1914–1949 ..................................................133
Table 4b GDP Levels in 8 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001 ..................................................134
Table 4b GDP Levels in 15 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949 (2 pages).................................135
Table 4b GDP Levels in 15 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001 (2 pages).................................137
Table 4b GDP Levels in 47 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949 ................................................139
Table 4b GDP Levels in 47 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001 ................................................140
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 8 Latin American Countries, 1820–1913 ............................................142
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 8 Latin American Countries, 1914–1949 ............................................143
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 8 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001 ............................................144
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 15 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949 (2 pages)...........................145
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 15 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001 (2 pages)...........................147
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 47 Latin American Countries, 1820–1949...........................................149
Table 4c Per Capita GDP in 47 Latin American Countries, 1950–2001...........................................150
HS–5
Table 5a Population of 16 East Asian Countries, 1820–1913 (2 pages) ...........................................160
Table 5a Population of 16 East Asian Countries, 1914–1949 (2 pages) ...........................................162
Table 5a Population of 16 East Asian Countries, 1950–2003 (2 pages) ...........................................164
Table 5a Population of 15 West Asian Countries, 1950–2003 (2 pages)..........................................166
Table 5a Population of 26 East Asian Countries, 1950–2003...........................................................168
Table 5a Population of 57 Asian Countries, 1820–2001...................................................................169
8