Deterrence, Reputation and Cold-War Cycles

179 Pages·1992·18.471 MB·English

by  John D. Orme (auth.)

DETERRENCE, REPUTATION AND
COLD-WAR CYCLES
Also by John D. Onne
*POLITICAL INSTABaITY AND AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY
*
Also published by Macmillan
Deterrence, Reputation
and Cold-War Cycles
John D. Orme
Research Fellow
Center for Science and International Affairs
Harvard University
M
© John Onne 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1992
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
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Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
First published 1992 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
Copy edited and typeset by Grahame and Grahame Editorial, Brighton
ISBN 978-1-349-12796-2 ISBN 978-1-349-12794-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-12794-8
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library
To all those who have served, suffered injury or died
defending the reputation of the United States.
Contents
List of Tables viii
Acknowledgements ix
Glossary x
1 Credibility and Deterrence 1
2 The Pearl Harbor Reaction 12
3 Covert Misadventure, Failed Summitry 73
4 The Road to Kabul 107
5 US Reputation and Soviet Expansion 136
Bibliography 153
Index 163
vii
List of Tables
I. Situations 149
II. Test of Four Hypotheses 150
III. Aspects of Commitment 151
IV. Capability 152
viii
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Steve Livingston, Martin Hillenbrand,
Harold Guetzkow, Patrick Morgan and two anonymous readers for their
comments on earlier versions of this manuscript and the Center for Science
and International Affairs at Harvard University for providing support
that made possible its completion. None of them, of course, bears any
responsibility for the errors of fact or analysis that undoubtedly remain.
Portions of Chapter 3 appeared originally in the author's article 'Deter
rence Failures: A Second Look', which was published in International
Security Volume, vol. 11, no. 4 (Spring 1987). They are reprinted here
with the permission of MIT Press Journals.
ix
Glossary
ACCs A committee of the victorious powers in World War II
(Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union) that was
nominally the highest authority in the occupied countries.
In Romania. the Allied Control Council; in Bulgaria, the
Allied Control Commission
Bundesrat The upper house in West Germany's parliament
CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe,
under whose umbrella negotiations were held in the
early seventies, culminating in the Helsinki Accords of
1975
FNLA National Front for the Liberation of Angola One of the
contending parties for power in Angola; allied with the
United States
GDR The former German Democratic Republic (East Ger
many)
HCP Hungarian Communist Party
Home Army The resistance forces in Poland
ICBM Intercontinental range Ballistic Missile
Kbalq One faction in the PDPA
KSC Communist Party of Czechoslovakia
London Poles The non-communist Polish exile government in World
War II, located in London
Lublin The pro-Soviet provisional government installed by Stalin
Committee for Pol~U1d
MFA Armed Forces Movement, a reformist junta in the
Portuguese military that overthrow the Caetano regime
in 1974 and dominated the successor government for
some time
MPLA Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola The
victorious faction in the Angolan civil war; allied to the
Soviet Union
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
NKPA North Korean People's Army
x