Demonstration of how a risk process might work for the AQI monitoring project

22 Pages·1995·1.4 MB·English

by  Orr, Richard L

Historic, Archive Document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

DEMONSTRATION OF HOW A RISK PROCESS
Reserve
aSB950 MIGHT WORK FOR THE
AQI MONITORING PROJECT
-A1077
1995
Richard L. Orr
USDA APHIS PPD
Senior Entomologist
U.S.D.A., NAL
JUN 1 1 2005
CATALOGING PREP
October 2, 1995
Say
i ; thie os ee
~ 9° P| 4
‘ .
Te eR AUC
LIBAG BMIBOIATA
¢
eo| nee
INTRODUCTION
The following process uses multiple sets of criteria to rank specific pathways by pest risk. These
rankings are relative in nature and not absolute -- in other words a numerical ranking that a
pathway receives will make no sense by itself, but only when compared to other pathways which
have also been assessed using this process.
This process was designed so that all pathways can be compared depending upon the needs oft he
monitoring project. A pathway is defined in this report as “any means that allows the entry of a
quarantine pest into the United States”. What will be compared is therefore up to the AQI
monitoring committee since all conceivable pathways could be compared. For example, a
pathway could be considered an AQI port, a series of AQI ports, a conveyance, a series of
conveyances, a mode of entry, or a specific commodity. For example one could compare the risks
between:
° Mexican land crossing vehicles with Canadian land crossing vehicles
° Airport Cargo with Maritime Cargo
° Direct ships with coastwise ships
° Iris cut flowers from Asia with Protea cut flowers from Africa
° Airline passengers from South America with airline passengers from Europe
° Lettuce coming into Miami via Airport Cargo with Cork bark coming into Baltimore via
sea freight
The purpose oft his report is for demonstration purposes only. I have tried to be as logical
(accurate) as I could in the short time I had to put this together, but have little doubt that a much
better job can be done on the criteria sets or on the assigned numbers used for the ranking
process. I have also simplified it to the extreme, again for demonstration purposes. The more
criteria you have in the final risk assessment the greater the accuracy will be.
I have divided the risk process into two parts. The first is the Interception Ranking Factor (IRF)
with is derived from a specific interception of one or more actionable pests (pests which would
result in quarantine action against the pathway in which it was found). The IRF is calculated and
recorded for each species of actionable pest found (each 309 form). The second part of the
process calculates the Pathway Ranking Number (PRN). The PRN is calculated from AQI
monitoring data (number of estimated actionable pests moving in that pathway) multiplied by the
IRF. The PRN of one pathway can then be compared to the PRN of any other pathway.
es /
a _ -
¥ 7 es
- .
7 7 7 i s ,*
7 a
7 7 . 7
- . —
“Vat. =
a : a '
- a
; : >
es mi My i> 16) Cage Wena Peay ac:ir a we
il ? vis & a 6 j : i es) tt 1 so O< a r wlth (ot
H [email protected] «nen 5 7 asveoget
r 7) Sah os eee te i$
=
} } Le Ji ; I 7, i i ‘cxYSS
: "ef Ewin /
1
d ; é Sitr ‘wati e.4 ) 4 wil
+ eLAe . ; : ' ~ Trev iL > ip uch ww! : is
poe a ty OA On bth: Ln ar a
toe Wa Wiki aasihaay fire 4 scone =|em
7 ->
: 9 A
a
; a m Th ~ a! = ita) b wT pos9 8 :
: ‘2 WG Hing «tile oginf h oe
be tai ons le rh $53
not £3 i Weg GA vaakchiend nr “d
lin ttt ;* ? Ghat Tike oat PARK, 4 cele :
re? ae a La OL? FPA Oe a O4 nie geosge atti) :
| OS gel ae
; a wr —
saan ti s a‘e
nest i Pry “fl mits! COREL
fi rN ithe VAI Ito fF ae
a Hart Arana] LAR eT ee eat aa iep e
rs ol) (ipiig sh Narre
. as
C*U TP ) Maries f fidrey 7 eon! gpa) 200 OE a PLO7 W_ ain
ft Ye G cn 4) 4)404 ite cil wn Ty i) ae 4 aayihiF g aat
» is : ; ef Us ' i ' <= ‘a’, fi lnie as iv ng antttag ohh aa be
vem tew es OG a a
. . Angad 46 rw 217! die) bartll. aida
ut)9 d Savnhlajgggeaitw@ Dell rig ppt scared |
athe ts Wa eo
-
PMRI E IE
Again part one will be completed on each 309 form in which an actionable pest is identified.
STEP 1 -- QUARANTINE PEST CRITERIUM
This criterium is used to reflect the impact if the pest becomes established.
The quarantine pest criterium used in this process is the same process used by BATS in their
“Enhanced Hazard Risk Assessment For Determining the Quarantine Status of Exotic
Organisms(”se e Appendix I). The reason for employing this process is that it is already in use for
the evaluation of intercepted AQI pests.
For AQI monitoring purposes only those “risk categories” under “Quarantine Action Required”
are used (see last page of Appendix I). These risk categories are arranged in descending risk and
ranked for AQI monitoring use.
Risk Categories Numerical Rating Verbal Rating
———————————
|H M, HHMMHH, , MMHHH,H ,M MHHMM | | Medium
HMM, HMU, HUM, MUM,
aehannine
The Numerical Rating becomes the “Quarantine Pest Number”
aA ;
| thy CR Roe pe pee or hill Gh ein Relter af ie eat
tT hee
-
=
AN TL TROD CARAT ICY 0g ox
winticteces donmnsi? Tei weti*) qe re folie” 49 Cady 2)
bt be oe 2 cli 2f HAG POD Oh Soe Soufl en
r r erlunncut? ai sabranane 1a (nvetwals Read) beech
4 lad} »; asco Sul ge rohpne tac onl Ti iiragh seer
re) Hd Nehe esietal: “he ahi pul
.
ane O” osbow “co- hen det erlang eee eotin (OAS
, See oe an 22orgens dah eee4T 0) ee 7 Sane VA oe) DOES
9 (wteeer HOA rot bee
M@ ies ei ® isv' epa D< S Pa nets
bvé ! EO ae eA e Vie ;
4
i f4\ : B) MOA AEM JID
a ee ee eee cene l en ed
ral 5,0 SAMA meadiaiainn
na ae ee
7 ) » 7 we
mim? el otaeeupnaisauanaee wn
® af : 7 an <a = 5
STEP 2 -- DESTINATION CRITERIUM
This criterium is used to reflect the likelihood of establishment.
No criterium at present exists to cover destination. The following is for demonstration only.
Description Numerical Rating Verbal Rating
Going to a state where host
plants are readily available
and/or pathway is propagative
material
Pathway is not propagative
material and is going to a
state adjacent to where host
plants are readily available or
to a state where host plants
are present but uncommon
enough that pest
establishment will probably
not occur or associated with
cargo in which destination (in
part) will likely go to one of
the above.
Pathway is not propagative
material and is going to a
state where the hosts are not
present or is adjacent to a
state where the host plants
are present but uncommon
enough that pest
establishment will probably
not occur
The Numerical Rating becomes the “Destination Number”.
3
a
;
1) Veta ter] = a Ae
-
Se :
Toy) pede 64 ny Pe7e
) er
i ¢ . i ba =e es aha) (WonieTe Bes
eoe a2 as 3
in e raat
Tr web rm a ir ai 7 we
<=
6
_ « $ = — a =Fy ours =
>
ON, AN ti Yor
tmis % bey Ol a
" het eet aoe
ip ieeats Cae a
¥ e
aie ak ny
iaNm m e
Paanerrange pride
etc mage