Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set, Volume 1-4: A Treatise in Population

2857 Pages·2006·29.91 MB·English

by  Graziella Caselli

Demography: Analysis and Synthesis

Demography: Analysis and Synthesis
Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch
with contributions by
Daniel Courgeau, Nico Keilman, Eva Lelièvre, James Vaupel,
Anatoli Yashin, and John Wilmoth
AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Caselli, Graziella.
[Dimographie. English]
Demography : analysis and synthesis : a treatise in population studies / Graziella Caselli,
Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch ; with contributions by Daniel Courgeau ...[et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-12-765660-X (set : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-12-765661-8 (volume 1 : alk. paper)—
ISBN 0-12-765662-6 (volume 2 : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-12-765663-4 (volume 3 : alk. paper)—
ISBN 0-12-765664-2 (volume 4 : alk. paper) 1. Demography. I. Vallin, Jacques.
II. Wunsch, Guillaume J. III. Title.
HB871.C37513 2005
304.6—dc22 2005019413
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
Acatalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 13: 978-0-12-765660-1
ISBN 10: 0-12-765660-X
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Demography: Analysis and Synthesis
Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, and Guillaume Wunsch
with contributions by
Daniel Courgeau, Nico Keilman, Eva Lelièvre, James Vaupel,
Anatoli Yashin, and John Wilmoth
VOLUME I
AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON
NEWYORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY• TOKYO
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier

Contents
Volume I
General Introduction i C H A P T E R
GRAZIELLACASELLI, JACQUES VALLIN, AND 2
GUILLAUME WUNSCH
Population: Replacement and Change 9
JACQUES VALLIN
S E C T I O N
I I. Exogenous Replacement: Entries and Exits by
Migration 9
II. Endogenous Replacement: Births, Deaths 12
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Introduction to Volume I 1
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN C H A P T E R
3
Population Increase 15
PA R T
GUILLAUME WUNSCH, JACQUES VALLIN, AND
I GRAZIELLACASELLI
I. Total Population Increase 15
POPULATION GROWTH
II. Natural and Migratory Increase 18
C H A P T E R
C H A P T E R
1
4
Populations and Individuals 5
Population Dynamics:
JACQUES VALLIN Movement and Structure 23
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN
I. Number and Composition 5
II. Size, Composition, and Dynamics:
I. The Age-Sex Structure 24
State and Change 6
II. Crude Rates and Age-Specific Rates 37
III. The Relationship between Age-specific
Rates, Age Structure, and Population
Growth 43
vii
viii Contents
PA R T C H A P T E R
II 8
Rates, Frequencies, and Probabilities 79
THE LONGITUDINAL APPROACH
GUILLAUME WUNSCH
Description of Demographic Processes
in a Birth Cohort 49 I. Types of Events and Population States 79
II. Repeatable Events: Rates and Frequencies 81
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN
III. Nonrepeatable Events, Probabilities, and
Occurrence/Exposure Rates 82
IV. Single and Multiple Decrement 86
V. The Force of Attrition 87
C H A P T E R
5
C H A P T E R
Variation Through Time of
Age-Specific Rates 51 9
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN Competing Risks, Independence,
and Continuity 89
GUILLAUME WUNSCH
C H A P T E R
I. The Condition of Independence 89
6
II. The Condition of Continuity 91
From Situating Events in Time to the Lexis
Diagram and the Computing of Rates 55
C H A P T E R
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN
10
I. Time, Age, Cohort 55
The Longitudinal Approach 93
II. The Lexis Diagram 57
III. Elements for Computing a Rate, According to GUILLAUME WUNSCH
the Classification Mode of Events 61
I. Individual and Cohort Data 93
II. The Longitudinal Approach: Descriptive
Measures 96
C H A P T E R
7
C H A P T E R
Frequency Surfaces and
11
Isofrequency Lines 69
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN Cohort Life Table 103
JACQUES VALLIN AND GRAZIELLACASELLI
I. Attempts at Three-Dimensional
Representation 69
I. Calculating a Cohort’s Probabilities of
II. Contour Lines 71
Dying 103
II. Construction and Main Functions of the
Table 112
III. From the Discrete to the Continuous: Entering
the Table Via the Force of Mortality 117
IV. The Oldest-Ages Problem and Table
Closure 119
V. The Special Case of Infant Mortality 125
Contents ix
C H A P T E R C H A P T E R
12 14
Cohort Analysis of Fertility 131 The Hypothetical Cohort as a Tool for
Demographic Analysis 163
GUILLAUME WUNSCH
JACQUES VALLIN AND GRAZIELLACASELLI
I. Analyzing Cohort Fertility from Retrospective
Data 131 I. The Period Life Table 163
II. Cohort Fertility from Vital Registration II. Hypothetical Intensity and Tempo of
Data 139 Fertility 171
III. Fertility by Marriage Cohorts 142 III. External Migrations 186
IV. Fertility by Parity Cohorts 143
V. Fertility by Age, Marriage Duration, and
Birth Interval 145
C H A P T E R
15
C H A P T E R
Confounding Variables, Standardization,
13 and the Problem of Summary Indices 197
Cohort Approach to External GUILLAUME WUNSCH
Migration Flows 149
I. Confounding Variables 197
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN II. Interaction Between Causes 199
III. Standardization and the Problem of Summary
I. The Data Constraint 150 Indices 200
II. Age-Specific Inflow and Outflow Rates 151
III. Estimating Net Migration: ARobust Approach
Despite Its Limits 153
C H A P T E R
16
PA R T
Relationships between Age-Specific Rates
III and Synthetic Indicators: Decomposition
of a Difference 209
PERIOD ANALYSIS REVISITED
JACQUES VALLIN AND GRAZIELLACASELLI
The Hypothetical Cohort and its Relations
I. How Differences in Age-Specific Mortality
with Actual Birth Cohorts 161
Affect a Difference in Life Expectancy 209
GRAZIELLACASELLI AND JACQUES VALLIN II. Tempo Effect and Intensity Effect on the
Difference Between Two TFRs 212