Table Of ContentDemographicChangeandLong-RunDevelopment
CESifoSeminarSeries
Hans-WernerSinn,serieseditor
CentralBankCommunication,DecisionMaking,andGovernance
PierreL.SiklosandJan-EgbertSturm,editors
LessonsfromtheEconomicsofCrime
Philip J. Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Giovanni Mas-
trobuoni,editors
FirmsintheInternationalEconomy
SjoerdBeugelsdijk,StevenBrakman,HansvanEes,andHarryGarret-
sen,editors
GlobalInterdependence,DecouplingandRecoupling
Yin-WongCheungandFrankWestermann,editors
TheEconomicsofConflict
KarlWärneryd,editor
ClimatePolicyandNonrenewableResources
KarenPittel,FrederickvanderPloeg,andCeesWithagen,editors
TaxationandRegulationoftheFinancialSector
RuuddeMooijandGaëtanNicodème,editors
TheMobilityofStudentsandtheHighlySkilled
MarcelGérardandSilkeUebelmesser,editors
PoliticalEconomyandInstrumentsofEnvironmentalPolitics
AndreaKollmann,JohannesReichl,andFriedrichSchneider,editors
EmissionsTradingSystemsasaPolicyInstrument
MarcGronwaldandBeatHintermann,editors
TheEconomicsofInfrastructureProvisioning
ArnoldPicot,MassimoFlorio,NicoGrove,andJohannKranz,editors
PublicSectorEconomicsandtheNeedforReforms
ApostolisPhilippopoulos,editor
TheEconomicsandPoliticalEconomyofEnergySubsidies
JonStrand,editor
TheEconomicsofLanguagePolicy
MicheleGazzolaandBengt-ArneWickström,editors
DemographicChangeandLong-RunDevelopment
MatteoCervellatiandUweSunde,editors
Seehttp://mitpress.mit.eduforacompletelistoftitlesinthisseries.
DemographicChangeandLong-RunDevelopment
editedbyMatteoCervellatiandUweSunde
TheMITPress
Cambridge,Massachusetts
London,England
(cid:13)c 2017MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronic
ormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandre-
trieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.
This book was set in Latin Modern using LATEX2εand KOMA-Script by Lukas Rosen-
berger,Germany.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Names:Cervellati,Matteo,editor.|Sunde,Uwe,editor.
Title:Demographicchangeandlong-rundevelopment/editedbyMatteo
CervellatiandUweSunde.
Description:Cambridge,MA:MITPress,[2017]|Series:CESifoseminar
series|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
Identifiers:LCCN2017000574|ISBN9780262036627(hardcover:alk.paper)
Subjects:LCSH:Demographictransition.|Economicdevelopment.
Classification:LCCHB887.D4392017|DDC338.9–dc23LCrecordavailableat
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017000574
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
SeriesForeword vii
Overview ix
Preface xi
1 TheDemographicTransitionandLong-Term
Development 1
MatteoCervellatiandUweSunde
2 TheLongShadowofHistory:TheBiogeographicalOriginsof
ComparativeEconomicDevelopment 29
OdedGalor
3 HealthImprovementandIncomeGrowthintheLong
Run 43
DavidN.Weil
4 DidLongerLivesBuyEconomicGrowth?FromMalthusto
LucasandBen-Porath 69
DaviddelaCroix
5 AdultMortalityandModernGrowth 91
DavideFiaschiandTamaraFioroni
6 HumanPhysiologicalDevelopmentandEconomic
Growth 133
Carl-JohanDalgaardandHolgerStrulik
7 IntrahouseholdDecisionMakingandFertility 159
MatthiasDoepkeandFabianKindermann
vi
8 LandInequality,Education,andMarriage:EmpiricalEvidence
fromNineteenth-CenturyPrussia 183
FrancescoCinnirellaandErikHornung
9 Long-RunDevelopmentandtheNewCulturalEconomics 221
BorisGershman
10 TimeSinceWhat?(Re)interpretingtheNeolithicTransitionin
aMalthusianEnvironment 263
Nils-PetterLagerlöf
11 CasteSystemsandTechnologyinPremodernSocieties 293
ElenaEsposito
12 ConclusionandOutlook 343
MatteoCervellatiandUweSunde
Contributors 347
Index 349
SeriesForeword
ThisbookispartoftheCESifoSeminarSeries.Theseriesaimstocover
topicalpolicyissuesineconomicsfromalargelyEuropeanperspective.
The books in this series are the products of the papers and intensive
debatesthattookplaceduringtheseminarshostedbyCESifo,aninter-
nationalresearchnetworkofrenownedeconomistsorganizedjointlyby
the Center for Economic Studies at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität,
Munich, and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. All publications
inthisserieshavebeen carefullyselectedandrefereedbymembersof
theCESiforesearchnetwork.
Overview
During the past 200 years, the Western world has experienced funda-
mentalchangesinlivingconditions.Withinafewgenerations,mortal-
ityandfertilityratesdroppedtounprecedentedlevels.Atroughlythe
sametimeofthisdemographictransition,aneconomictransitionledto
widespreadeducationandsustainedincomegrowthafteranearlystag-
nant development during the entire previous history. These changes
are but the most visible features of a development that has been ong-
oing since the Neolithic transition and that incorporates pronounced
changesinotherdimensions,suchasfamilystructures,culture,andthe
organizationofsociety.
In this volume, economists offer an in-depth review of the research
on different aspects of this development, including the biogeographic
origins of comparative development differences, the role of health
improvements and mortality decline, physiological aspects, family
structure, and cultural and social aspects. This book is intended to
inform economists interested in long-run development, demographic
economics,andeconomichistory,aswellasinterestedreaderswithdif-
ferentbackgrounds,aboutdifferentfacetsofthelong-rundevelopment
process.
