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tto Democratic transitions
Modes and outcomes
Sujian Guo and Gary a. Stradiotto
ISBN 978-0-415-64320-7
www.routledge.com
9 780415 643207
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12.5mm
Democratic Transitions
Democratic transitions have occurred in many countries in various regions across
the globe, such as Southern Europe, Latin America, Africa, East and Southeast
Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and these nations have undergone
simultaneously political, economic and social transformations. Yet, the patterns
and characteristics of transitions have varied significantly, and different modes
of transition have resulted in different outcomes.
This book offers cross- national comparisons of democratic transition since
the turn of the twentieth century and asks what makes democracies succeed or
fail. In doing so it explores the influence the mode of transition has on the lon-
gevity or durability of the democracy, by theoretically examining and quantita-
tively testing this relationship. The authors argue that the mode of transition
directly impacts the success and failure of democracy, and suggest that coopera-
tive transitions, where opposition groups work together with incumbent elites to
peacefully transition the state, result in democracies that last longer and are asso-
ciated with higher measures of democratic quality.
Based on a cross- national dataset of all democratic transitioning states since
1900, this book will be of great interest to students and scholars of international
politics, comparative politics and democracy, and democratization studies.
Sujian Guo is Distinguished Professor at Zhejiang University and Fudan
University, and an academic committee member of Peking University-Fudan
University-Jilin University Co-innovation Center for State Governance in China
and Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Center
for U.S.–China Policy Studies at San Francisco State University, U.S.A.
Gary A. Stradiotto is Professorial Lecturer of Political Science at The George
Washington University, U.S.A.
Democratization Studies
(formerly Democratization Studies, Frank Cass)
Democratization Studies combines theoretical and comparative studies with
detailed analyses of issues central to democratic progress and its performance,
all over the world.
The books in this series aim to encourage debate on the many aspects of demo-
cratization that are of interest to policy- makers, administrators and journalists, aid
and development personnel, as well as to all those involved in education.
1 Democratization and the Media
Edited by Vicky Randall
2 The Resilience of Democracy
Persistent practice, durable idea
Edited by Peter Burnell and Peter Calvert
3 The Internet, Democracy and Democratization
Edited by Peter Ferdinand
4 Party Development and Democratic Change in Post- Communist Europe
Edited by Paul Lewis
5 Democracy Assistance
International co-o peration for democratization
Edited by Peter Burnell
6 Opposition and Democracy in South Africa
Edited by Roger Southall
7 The European Union and Democracy Promotion
The case of North Africa
Edited by Richard Gillespie and Richard Youngs
8 Democratization and the Judiciary
Edited by Siri Gloppen, Roberto Gargarella and Elin Skaar
9 Civil Society in Democratization
Edited by Peter Burnell and Peter Calvert
10 The Internet and Politics
Citizens, voters and activists
Edited by Sarah Oates, Diana Owen and Rachel Gibson
11 Democratization in the Muslim World
Changing patterns of authority and power
Edited by Frederic Volpi and Francesco Cavatorta
12 Global Democracy: For and Against
Ethical theory, institutional design and social struggles
Raffaele Marchetti
13 Constructing Democracy in Southern Europe
A comparative analysis of Italy, Spain and Turkey
Lauren M. McLaren
14 The Consolidation of Democracy
Comparing Europe and Latin America
Carsten Q. Schneider
15 New Challenges to Democratization
Edited by Peter Burnell and Richard Youngs
16 Multiple Democracies in Europe
Political culture in new member states
Paul Blokker
17 Globality, Democracy and Civil Society
Edited by Terrell Carver and Jens Bartelson
18 Democracy Promotion and Conflict-b ased Reconstruction
The United States and democratic consolidation in Bosnia and Afghanistan
Matthew Alan Hill
19 Requisites of Democracy
Conceptualization, measurement, and explanation
Jørgen Møller and Svend-E rik Skaaning
20 The Conceptual Politics of Democracy Promotion
Edited by Christopher Hobson and Milja Kurki
21 Ethnic Politics and Democratic Transition in Rwanda
David Kiwuwa
22 Democracy and Democratization in Comparative Perspective
Conceptions, conjunctures, causes and consequences
Jørgen Møller and Svend-E rik Skaaning
23 The Comparative International Politics of Democracy Promotion
Jonas Wolff, Hans- Joachim Spanger and Hans- Jürgen Puhle
24 Democratization and Ethnic Minorities
Conflict or compromise?
Edited by Jacques Bertrand and Oded Haklai
25 Democratic Transitions
Modes and outcomes
Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto
Democratic Transitions
Modes and outcomes
Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto
First published 2014
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa
business
© 2014 Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto
The right of Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto to be identified as authors
of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and
78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Stradiotto, Gary A.
Democratic transitions: modes and outcomes/Gary A. Stradiotto,
Sujian Guo.
pages cm. – (Democratization studies)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Democratization–Cross-c ultural studies. I. Guo, Sujian. II. Title.
JC423.S863 2014
321.8–dc23
2013037826
ISBN: 978-0-415-64320-7 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-79661-1 (ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear
Contents
List of figures viii
List of tables ix
About the authors x
1 Introduction 1
2 Modes of democratic transition 16
3 A theory of explaining the success rate of democratic
transitions 32
4 Research design and empirics 51
5 Democratic prospects 78
6 Conclusion 119
Appendix 125
Index 134
Figures
1.1 Average democratic duration by transition type 8
1.2 Average democratic quality by transition type 8
2.1 The process of democratization 16
3.1 Classifying transitions 33
3.2 Modes of transition, a unified approach 44
3.3 Mode of transition as intervening variable 46
3.4 Prototype democratic growth after transition 47
4.1 Research design 63
4.2 Kaplan–Meier survival estimates, by transition type 65
Tables
1.1 Summary statistics of transition type 7
4.1 Dependent and independent variable coding rules 58
4.2 OLS regression for democratic quality – ten years after
transition (robust standard errors in parentheses) 66
4.3 Duration analysis for democratic longevity – ten years after
transition 67
4.4 Multinomial logistic regression results of prior regime type on
transition type (robust standard errors) 71
4.5 OLS results for democratic quality – prior regime type (robust
standard errors) 73
4.6 Duration analysis results – prior regime type (robust standard
errors) 74
5.1 The predicted value model of Iraq’s democratic transition 83
5.2 The predicted value model of Tunisia’s democratic transition 99
5.3 The predicted value model of Egypt’s democratic transition 102
5.4 The predicted value model of Libya’s democratic transition 104
5.5 The predicted value model of Yemen’s democratic transition 106
5.6 China’s share of world GDP 109
5.7 The predicted value model of China’s potential democratic
transition 113
