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About Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
Detailed Information
| Author: | Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto |
|---|---|
| Publication Year: | 2006 |
| ISBN: | 6613825328 |
| Pages: | 44 |
| Language: | English |
| File Size: | 0.6953125 |
| Format: | |
| Price: | FREE |
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