Decision Making in Complex Systems: The DeciMaS Agent-based Interdisciplinary Framework Approach

201 Pages·2012·4.76 MB·English

by  Marina V. Sokolova

MarinaV. SokolovaandAntonioFerna´ndez-Caballero
DecisionMakinginComplexSystems
IntelligentSystemsReferenceLibrary,Volume30
Editors-in-Chief
Prof.JanuszKacprzyk Prof.LakhmiC.Jain
SystemsResearchInstitute UniversityofSouthAustralia
PolishAcademyofSciences Adelaide
ul.Newelska6 MawsonLakesCampus
01-447Warsaw SouthAustralia5095
Poland Australia
E-mail:[email protected] E-mail:[email protected]
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MarinaV.Sokolova andAntonio Ferna´ndez-Caballero
Decision Making in
Complex Systems
The DeciMaSAgent-Based Interdisciplinary
Framework Approach
123
Dr.MarinaV.Sokolova Prof.AntonioFerna´ndez-Caballero
AlbaceteUniversidaddeCastilla-LaMancha AlbaceteUniversidaddeCastilla-LaMancha
DepartamentodeSistemasInforma´ticos& DepartamentodeSistemasInforma´ticos&
InstitutodeInvestigacio´nenInforma´tica InstitutodeInvestigacio´nenInforma´tica
02071Albacete 02071Albacete
Spain Spain
E-mail:[email protected] E-mail:[email protected]
ISBN 978-3-642-25543-4 e-ISBN978-3-642-25544-1
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25544-1
Intelligent SystemsReference Library ISSN1868-4394
Library of Congress Control Number:2011942877
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Preface
Fromthedefinitionthat“asystemisasetofelementswhichinteractwitheachother
andtheenvironment”,onecannotehowthenumberofelementsofasystemandthe
numberandnatureofinteractionsthatoccurthereinprovidetheinformationneeded
toestimatethedegreeofdifficultyinvolvedtoaccuratelydescribeit.Clearly,whena
systemconsistsofnumerouselements,knowledgeoftherelationshipsbetweenthem
iscrucial.Themereidentificationoftheseelementsisnotenoughtounderstandits
operation,andcouldleadtoformamisconceptionorinsufficientideaofthesystem
asawhole.
Therefore, the study of complex systems attracts the attention of many re-
searchersinallfields.Decisionmakingforcomplexsystemshastraditionallybeen
acomplicatedtaskthatcanbecompliedusinganinterdisciplinaryapproach.Ithas
numerous outcomes and can be applied to manifold domains. Complex systems
modelshighlightthedynamicsofchange.Thesecomplexsystemsarecharacterized
bya highnumberofcomponententitiesanda highdegreeofinteractions.One of
themostimportantfeaturesisthatitdoesnotinvolveacentralorganizingauthority,
butthevariouselementsthatmakeupthesystemareself-organized.Somecomplex
systemspossessanemergencypriority:climatechangeandsustainabledevelopment
research,studiesofpublichealth,ecosystemhabitats,epidemiology,andmedicine,
amongothers.
A greatnumberofoverlappingapproachesthatexistnowadaysfailto meetthe
needsofdecisionmakerswhenmanagingcomplexdomains.Thedesignofcomplex
systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools
and techniques.The problemcan be viewed in termsof goals, states, and actions,
choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior.
Agent-basedapproachesareincreasinglybeingusedtomodelcomplexsystemsas
theyhavetheadvantageofbeingeasytodescribeandappearmorerealistic.
Themainobjectiveofthisbookistobringtogetherexistingmethodsfordecision
supportsystemscreationwithinacoherentframeworkandtoprovideaninterdisci-
plinaryandflexiblemethodologyformodelingcomplexandsystemicdomainsand
policies.Itisobviousthatitisimpossibletocreateanoveralltoolthatwouldplay
theroleofamagicwandtostudyanycomplexadaptiveproblem.Butwhatcanbe
VIII Preface
done,andwhatisabsolutelynecessary,isaframeworkfordecisionsupportsystems
design.
Thisbookconsistsofsixchapters.Chapter1isdedicatedtomakingabriefintro-
ductionintocomplexsystemanalysiswithaparticularemphasisontheproblemof
decisionmakingforsuchsystems.Thechapterprovidesareviewonchallengesand
approaches of modern decision support systems and shows that it is necessary to
workoutanewagent-basedframeworkfordecisionsupportsystemcreationforthe
caseofcomplexdomains.Next,thechaptergivesageneraloverviewoftheproblem
athand,themotivationandsomehighlightsforthisstudy.
Chapter 2 is devoted to related research and introducesan overview of current
state-of-the-artinareasofcomplexsystemanalysisanddecisionmakingbymeans
of intelligenttools,includingthose thatare agent-based.Italso comparesexisting
agent-oriented methodologies and frameworks for decision support. Furthermore,
the chaptermakes conclusionsaboutthe necessity of a generalframework,which
wouldcombinecharacteristicsoftheformerandthelatter.
Chapter3isadescriptionoftheproposedDeciMaSframework.Thechapterin-
troduces components of the DeciMaS framework and the way in which they are
organized. Design and implementation of the system are discussed as well. The
chapterdemonstrateshowinformationistransformedintoknowledgeandillustrates
the transformationsmade throughouteach stage of the DeciMaS framework.Fur-
thermore,theinformationaboutdataminingmethods,thatareusedintheDeciMaS
framework,areintroducedanddepictedindetail.
Chapter4providesacasestudyofanagent-baseddecisionsupportsystemdevel-
opedinan effortto demonstratethe practicalaspectsofdevelopingsystemsusing
the DeciMaSframework.This chapterpresentsan exampleof usingthe DeciMaS
frameworkwiththeaimofdevelopingadecisionsupportsystemforenvironmental
impactassessmentuponhumanhealth.Meta-ontologyofthedomainofinterest,the
systemitselfanditsmappingarepresentedinthechapter.Inaddition,amulti-agent
architectureforadecisionsupportsystem isshown.Thesequenceof thestepsfor
the DeciMaS frameworkdesign with PrometheusDevelopmentKit and its imple-
mentationwithJackDevelopmentEnvironmentarepresentedaswell.
Chapter 5 is dedicatedto the discussionof the results obtainedfromthe exper-
iment for the case of environmental impact for some selected regions. Data and
experimentresultsofdatamodeling,simulation,sensitivityanalysis,impactassess-
mentanddecisiongenerationarediscussed.
Chapter 6 containsthe conclusionsof the proposedwork and providesa list of
activitiesforthenearfuture.
Albacete,Spain, MarinaV.Sokolova
September2011 AntonioFerna´ndez-Caballero
Acknowledgements
Completinga bookistrulyamarathonevent,andwewouldnothavebeenableto
completethisjourneywithoutthehelpandsupportofcountlesspeopleoverthepast
fouryears.Altheseanonymoussupportersknowofoureverlastinggratitude.
Marina is especially grateful to all her friends and colleagues from the Kursk
StateTechnicalUniversityfortheirassistancewithallkindofhelpandfortheirfaith
inher.Duringyears2006to2008sheenjoyedtheaidofaMAECScholarshipfrom
theSpanishMinistryofForeignAffairs,whichsupportedherwhileshestartedher
PhDintheAdvancedInformaticsProgramoftheUniversityofCastilla-LaMancha,
Albacete,Spain.
We are very grateful to all our friends and colleagues from the Department of
ComputingSystems at University of Castilla-La Mancha and colleaguesfrom the
AlbaceteResearchInstituteofInformatics.Letusalsosay“thankyou”tothemem-
bers of the n&aIS(naturaland artificial InteractionsSystems) research laboratory
forhelpingusateverytime.
Finally,weareforeverindebtedtoourfamiliesfortheirunderstanding,endless
patienceandencouragementwhenitwasmostrequired.