Decision-making Analysis and Optimization Modeling of Emergency Warnings for Major Accidents

177 Pages·2019·4.08 MB·English

by  Wenmei Gai

Wenmei Gai
Yan Du
Yunfeng Deng
Decision-making
Analysis and
Optimization Modeling
of Emergency Warnings
for Major Accidents
Decision-making Analysis and Optimization
Modeling of Emergency Warnings for Major
Accidents
Wenmei Gai Yan Du Yunfeng Deng
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Decision-making Analysis
and Optimization Modeling
of Emergency Warnings
for Major Accidents
123
Wenmei Gai Yunfeng Deng
ChinaUniversity of Geosciences ChineseAcademy of Governance
Beijing,China Beijing,China
Yan Du
University of Science andTechnology
Beijing
Beijing,China
ISBN978-981-13-2870-1 ISBN978-981-13-2871-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2871-8
JointlypublishedwithSciencePress,Beijing,China
TheprinteditionisnotforsaleinChinaMainland.CustomersfromChinaMainlandpleaseorderthe
printbookfrom:SciencePress.
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018957634
©SciencePressandSpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.2019
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublishers,whetherthewholeorpart
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar
methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom
therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
Thepublishers,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the
authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.
ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:152BeachRoad,#21-01/04GatewayEast,Singapore189721,
Singapore
Preface
When discussing issues concerning major accident emergency early-warning man-
agement and decision-making, the book took toxic gas leakages as examples and
addressed problems about system designing, information communication, evacua-
tion, routes planning, and evacuation risk assessment. The book contained six
chapters. In the book, Chap. 1 is an introduction to this book, and the research
background, basic concepts, and research trends are described. Chapter 2 mainly
introduced researches about public alert systems both at home and abroad, and
proposed a design framework, ideas, and approaches of emergency early-warning
system for toxic gas leakages; Chap. 3 analyzed communication theories for
emergency early-warning information, general rules and influence factors of
early-warninginformation.Basedonsocialnetworkandemergencytrafficnetwork,
it also proposed an alert information communication model for individual house-
holds,aswellascarriedoutsimulationandresultsanalysisonthemodel.Chapter4
provided an assessment framework for an evacuation warning based on regional
evacuation modeling for toxic-cloud releases, which considers the impact of
evacuation-warning dissemination and the calculation of health consequences.
Chapter5investigatedintopathsplanninginemergencymanagementandanalyzed
influencefactorsofpathsselection.Anditputforwardamulti-objectivemodelfor
emergency path selection and a heuristic algorithm for meeting the needs of emer-
gencydecision-making.Chapter6focusesonprovidinganassessmentframeworkof
evacuation risk for major accidents, and the exposure dose calculated based on
vulnerability model andaccident probabilityisintroduced to predicttherisk.
Thebookcanberegardedasageneralreviewontheworksandresearchfindings
duringthefirstauthor’s,Dr.WenmeiGai,doctoralstudyandpostdoctoralstudyat
University of Science and Technology Beijing, as well as a summary of the
scholarly dissertations published by authors of the book in the field. The support
and help from teachers, classmates in USTB, as well as current leaders and col-
leagues in China University of Geosciences (Beijing) are deeply appreciated.
Meanwhile, Prof. Yunfeng Deng, tutor for the research, has devoted lots of efforts
in composing, revising, and completing the final draft, and offered effective opin-
ions and suggestions. In the research process of the project, Prof. Jiang Zhong’an,
v
vi Preface
tutor of the first author’s doctoral program, Prof. Dai Shufen, tutor of the first
author’s postdoctoral research, and Mr. Li Jing, a senior engineer from China
Academy of Safety Science and Technology, have provided valued opinions and
suggestions. LI Xin, a graduate student from China Foreign Affairs University, as
wellasthefirstauthor’sstudents,includingXUKe,GAOYing,WANGNing,LV
Jiang,andFENGJianruialsohavemadealotofeffortinformateditingandpartial
proofreading. All of the efforts and help mentioned above are deeply appreciated.
Besides, the book has referenced to many research findings from scholars and
researches in the field both at home and abroad, and the authors hope to convey
thanks to all.
Moreover, the study was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of
China(GrantNo.71603017),withoutwhosehelpthisbookwouldneverhavebeen
possible. Moreover, some of the researches in the book were funded by China
Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (Grant No. 2016M591081),
FundamentalResearchFundsfortheCentralUniversities(GrantNo.53200759046),
and also some of the funds came from China Post-Doctoral Fund and China
University of Geosciences. Their efforts greatly inspired and supported the book,
which are deeply appreciated.
Due to the limitations, there could be errors and shortcomings in the book, and
we sincerely welcome your comments and corrections.
Beijing, China Wenmei Gai
May 2018 Yan Du
Yunfeng Deng
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 What Is Emergency Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toxic Gas Leakage
Resulting in Evacuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Evacuation Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 Public Protection Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacuation. . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Personnel Evacuation for Toxic
Gas Leakage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacuation Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.5 Evacuation Scale Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5.1 Population Scale Estimation Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.5.2 The Influence Factors on the Scale of Evacuation . . . . . . . 21
1.6 Research Status of Emergency Decisions Both at Home
and Abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.7 Research Objects and Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2 Emergency Warning System for Major Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1 Emergency Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.2 Functions of Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1.3 Implementation of Early Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.2 Literature Review on References of Emergency Early
Warning Both at Home and Abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
vii
viii Contents
2.2.3 Public Alert System from Other Foreign Organizations . . . 40
2.2.4 Public Alerting System in China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.3 The Design and Implementation of Early Warning System
for Major Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.3.1 FM Broadcasting Technology Based on Different
Locations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.3.2 The Structure of Public Alert System Based on FM
Broadcast for Different Addresses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.3.3 Researches on Hardware Development of Indoor Alarm
Receivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.3.4 Researches on Embedded Software Development
of Indoor Alarm Receivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.4 Summary of the Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3 Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning. . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.1 An Overview of Researches on Communication
and Diffusion of Emergency Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.2 The Influence Factors of Early Warning Communication . . . . . . . 67
3.3 General Rules for Alert Information Communication . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.4 Modeling of the Communication Rules of Alert for Individual
Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.4.1 The Establishment of the Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.4.2 The Solution of the Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.5 The Simulation and Results Analysis of Communication Model
of Alerts for Individual Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.5.1 Simulation Results and Analysis of the Communication
Time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.5.2 The Simulation Results and Analysis of Closeness
of Social Relationship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.5.3 Simulation Analysis and Results of Deployment
Proportion of Alert Receivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.6 Summary of the Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4 Regional Evacuation Modeling for Toxic Cloud Releases
and Its Application in Strategy Assessment of Evacuation
Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.1 Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.1.1 Description of Regional Evacuation Network . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.1.2 Diffusion of Evacuation Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.1.3 Loading of Evacuation Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.1.4 Movement Through Regional Evacuation Network . . . . . . 95
Contents ix
4.2 Health Consequence Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.2.1 Accident Consequence Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.2.2 Exposure Dose Calculation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.2.3 Conditional Probability of Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.3 Case Study and Discussion in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.3.1 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.3.2 Evacuation Efficiency Under Different Evacuation
Warning Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
4.3.3 Health Consequences of Accidents Under Different
Evacuation Warning Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
4.4 Summary of the Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5 Multi-objective Route Planning Model and Algorithm
for Emergency Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.1 Literature Review. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.2 Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management. . . . 116
5.2.1 Definition of Variables and Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.2.2 Bounded Rationality in Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.2.3 Multi-objective Route Planning Model for Emergency
Logistics Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.3 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
5.3.1 Classical Algorithms to Solve Single-Objective Shortest
Path Problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
5.3.2 Construction of Auxiliary Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
5.3.3 Main-Objective Method to Deal with Multi-objective
Optimization Problems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5.4 Proposed Heuristic Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.4.1 Static Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based
on A* Algorithm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
5.4.2 Dynamic Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based
on D* Algorithm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
5.4.3 Algorithm Advantage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
5.5 Computational Experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.5.1 Results of Model III When s Varies Within
the Interval [0, 1] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.5.2 Results of Model I in Static Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
5.5.3 Results of Model I in Dynamic Environments. . . . . . . . . . 147
5.6 Summary of the Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
x Contents
6 Evacuation Risk Assessment of Regional Evacuation
for Major Accidents and Its Application in Emergency
Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
6.1 Evacuation Risk Assessment Process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
6.1.1 Calculation of Received Dose. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
6.1.2 Conditional Probability Calculation of Health
Consequence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
6.1.3 Determination of Occurrence Probability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
6.1.4 Calculation of Individual Evacuation Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
6.1.5 Acceptable Risk Level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
6.2 The Application in Emergency Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
6.2.1 The Application in Emergency Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
6.2.2 Division of Risk Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
6.2.3 Emergency Preparation in Each Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
6.3 The Application in Emergency Response. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
6.4 Summary of the Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166