Table Of ContentSPRINGER BRIEFS IN ENERGY
Mrinmoy Majumder
Soumya Ghosh
Decision Making
Algorithms for
Hydro-Power
Plant Location
SpringerBriefs in Energy
For furthervolumes:
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Mrinmoy Majumder Soumya Ghosh
•
Decision Making Algorithms
for Hydro-Power Plant
Location
123
Mrinmoy Majumder Soumya Ghosh
National InstituteofTechnology Greater Kolkata College ofEngineering
Agartala and Management
India Kolkata
India
ISSN 2191-5520 ISSN 2191-5539 (electronic)
ISBN 978-981-4451-62-8 ISBN 978-981-4451-63-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-4451-63-5
SpringerSingaporeHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013936523
(cid:2)TheAuthor(s)2013
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Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Global Energy Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Threats to Natural Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Potential of Hydropower as Possible Alternative. . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.4 Different Decision-Making Algorithms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.5 Objective and Brief Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.6 Locations Considered as Alternatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.6.1 The Chenab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.6.2 The Danube . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.6.3 The Youkon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2 Hydropower Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1 Classification of Hydropower Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1.1 Classification with respect to Quantity
of Water Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1.2 Classification According to Availability
of Water Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1.3 Classification According to Nature of Load . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2 Advantages of Hydroelectric Plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.3 Disadvantages of Hydro-Electric Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3 Decision Making Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.1 Procedures of Decision Making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.2 Multi-Attribute Decision Making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.3 Performance Metrics: KAPPA Coefficient of Agreements . . . . . 24
3.3.1 Interpretation of KAPPA Coefficient of Agreement. . . . . 25
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4 Nature-Based Algorithms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.1 Artificial Neural Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.2 Genetic Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
v
vi Contents
4.3 Fuzzy Logic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.4 BAT Algorithm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.5 Analytical Hierarchy Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.5.1 Advantage of the Analytical Hierarchy Process . . . . . . . 31
4.5.2 Principle of the Analytical Hierarchy Process. . . . . . . . . 32
4.5.3 Steps of the Analytical Hierarchy Process . . . . . . . . . . . 32
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
5 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
5.1 Decision-Making Factors for HPP Location Selection . . . . . . . . 35
5.2 Nature-Based Algorithm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
6 Result and Discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
7 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
7.1 Limitations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
7.2 Future Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Chapter 1
Introduction
Abstract The global energy scenario highlights the growth in demand for fossil
fuels due to the continuous development in technology and the socioeconomic
scenariooftheworld.Thisincreaseindemandoffossilfuelsandutilizationofthe
same to sustain development has enforced stress on the resources. Also, uncon-
trolleduseoffossilfuelshasincreasedthetotalconcentrationofgreenhousegases,
whichinturnhasbecomeamajorcauseofglobalwarming.Asaresulttheclimate
ofmanyplaceshasdisplayedabnormality.Thepollutioncontentofvariousplaces
isalsoaggravatedduetotherampantuseoffossilfuels.Thatiswhyanalternative
to fossil fuel is now being searched. Some of the sources of energy like solar,
wind, and hydro-energy are infinitely available but the technology to convert it
into utilizable form is expensive. Among all these renewable energy sources,
hydro-energyisfoundtoberelativelyinexpensiveandavailableatagreaterphase
of time than othersimilarkinds ofenergy resources.However,most ofthe factors
which are consideredinthefeasibilitystudiesfor HPPis location dependent. The
requirement of population displacement from the project watershed depends on
location of the project. The amount of utilizable hydro-kinetic energy also is a
function of both space and time. Not only the location dependency offactors but
influenceofallthefactorsongenerationcapacityisnotuniform.Forexamplethe
influenceofamountofflowavailableintheprojectlocationismoreimportantthan
the area offorest which are required to be removed from the project area. That is
why both the importance of the factors and its location dependency must be
considered in any feasibility studies for HPP. If the site selection is performed
logically and scientifically, considering the importance of all the socioeconomic,
geophysical, and logistical factors, then only such project may optimally satisfy
the present demand for energy. In this regard decision-making algorithms like
neuralnetwork,fuzzylogic,batalgorithms,andanalyticalhierarchyprocessalong
M.MajumderandS.Ghosh,DecisionMakingAlgorithmsforHydro-Power 1
PlantLocation,SpringerBriefsinEnergy,DOI:10.1007/978-981-4451-63-5_1,
(cid:1)TheAuthor(s)2013
2 1 Introduction
withhybridmodelslikeneurogeneticandneuro-fuzzywhicharepopularfortheir
intuistic decision making abilities were applied to identify the ideal sites for
installation of hydropower.
Rapid increase in urbanization, ever-growing population along with global
warming-induced climate change and large-scale extraction of natural resources
has in recent times disturbed the natural equilibrium that provides the requisite
resources for sustenance of mankind.
Along with the environmental degradation the demand for fossil fuels has
raised manifold in the last ten decades due to the economic and technological
developments to satisfy the luxury needed by the population. As a result, the
pressure on the conventional fuel sources, which are finite, has also increased.
That is why engineers and scientists are looking for alternative sources of
energytosatisfythisincreaseindemand.Solar,wind,andhydropowerwerefound
to be some of the major sources that can be suitable alternatives for mitigating
energy scarcity observed in many places around the world.
There are many other sources of energy that can be utilized as alternatives to
the conventional energy depositories. Among them, with respect to price, avail-
ability,andregularity,solar,wind,andhydropowerwerefoundtobethepotential
alternatives for replacing the utility offossil fuels.
1.1 Global Energy Scenario
Figure1.1depictsthecontributionofdifferenttypesofenergysourcesfrom1990to
2008 (Eenergila¨get in Sweden 2011). The figure showsthat the contribution from
fossil fuel is still the highest even in the year 2008, but the utility of Renewable
Energyhasalsoincreasedfrom1,308,000to1,849,000TWh.Atthesametimethe
use ofnuclear energy is also aggravatedfrom 611,000 to82,000 TWh.
Theregionalenergyuse inthe saidtime frame has grown by170, 146,91,70,
66, 20, and 7 % respectively in the Middle East, India, Africa, Latin America,
USA, and the EU-27 block (IEA 2012).
Globally, energy use was found to increase by 39 %. While the global popu-
lation has increased by 27 % from 1990 to 2008, the energy use per person has
increased by 10 %. The dependency on fossil fuel is also found to be shifting
toward renewable sources of energy (Fig. 1.1).
1.2 Threats to Natural Resources
The crisis for conventional energy sources is not the only reason why experts are
enforcinggovernmentstoshifttowardrenewablearchivesofenergy.Thepollution
exerted from using fossil fuels is one of the major concern for adaptation of
1.2 ThreatstoNaturalResources 3
Fig. 1.1 The contribution of different energy sources to satisfy the energy demand from the
globalpopulation
different kinds of energy sources which are more environment friendly and may
not influence the global pollution scenario.
The burning offossil fuels contributes to global warming, the pollution of the
air, water, and land, and is one of the major factors for production of acid rain.
Duringthecombustionoffossilfuelshugeamountsofcarbonarereleasedintothe
airwhichagainincreasestheconcentrationofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.
The result of this entrapment results in global abnormality in the climatic trend.
The temperature rise due to global warming contributed to the melting of the
ice cap in the polar region, which has decreased the salinity of the ocean endan-
gering many organisms that are dependent upon a certain level of salt concen-
tration. Sea level ascent also poses a serious risk to many cities and settlements
located close to the sea level which can entirely disappear under water.
Besidessealevelrise,climaticabnormalitiesduetoglobalwarmingwillresult
in altered habitats, extreme weather conditions, drop in crop yields etc. In coun-
tries like Africa, the Middle East, and India, water availability for irrigation and
drinkingwillbelesspredictableduetolarge-scalevariationsintherainfallpattern.
Droughts will be more frequent, creating pressure on agricultural production and
diversity.
Up to three billion people could face increased water shortages by 2080. Air
andwaterpollutionresultingfromtheextractionanduseoffossilfuelscanleadto
significant health and environmental degradation.
4 1 Introduction
The economic consequences are also significant. The rise in economic devel-
opmentallovertheworld,especiallyintheBRICScountries,andthedemandfor
raw materials andenergy tosustain their developments is causingpressure on the
fuelreserves.Duetothis,uncontrolledextractionoftheresourcestosupplytothis
demand has become scarce enforcing an accretion in the prices of the products
(TAL 2012).
Theilleffectsofusingfossilfuelsarealsodescribedinvariousliteraturessuchas
Sovacool(2009),Goldemberg(2007),Lohmann(2006),Jaccard(2006),Vitousek
etal.(1997),etc.
The threat to water resources from the combustion of fossil fuels is also
depicted in Hanlon et al. (2013), Bradley et al. (2006), Pimentel et al. (1997),
Frederick et al. (1997) and many other related literatures.
The environmental impacts of fossil fuels are delineated in: Mukherjee and
Chakraborty (2013), Jaccard (2006), Laurance et al. (2001), Beckerman (1992),
Davies(1990)andmanyotherliteraturesandreportspublishedfromgovernmental
as well as non-governmental organizations.
As a result, governments are encouraged toconcentrate on the development of
renewable energy resources for satisfying their energy needs. For example,
Denmark and Germany have started to make investments in solar energy, despite
theirunfavorablegeographiclocations.PresentlyGermanyisthelargestconsumer
of photovoltaic cells in the world.
DenmarkandGermanyhaveinstalled3and17GWofwindpowerrespectively.
In2005,windgenerated18.5%ofalltheelectricityinDenmark.Brazilinvestsin
ethanol production from sugarcane, which is now a significant part of the trans-
portationfuelinthatcountry.Switzerlandisplanningtocutitsenergyconsumption
bymorethanhalftobecomea2,000Wsocietyby2050andtheUnitedKingdomis
working toward a zero energy buildingstandard for all new housingby 2016.
1.3 Potential of Hydropower as Possible Alternative
“As one of the earliest renewable energy resources to be exploited, hydroelec-
tricity is the low-hanging fruit of the renewable world. It’s steady, self-storing,
highly efficient, cost-effective, low-carbon, low-tech, and offers a serious boon to
water skiers” (Murphy 2012).
TheU.S. has78GWofhydroelectriccapacityinstalled.Inayear,these plants
produce 272 TWh. 0.9 % of the primary energy use, or 2.3 % of primary energy
associated with electricity and 7.3 % of the electricity supply is contributed by
hydro-electricity.
TheenergybudgetofEarthshowsthat23%ofthesolarradiationisutilizedin
evaporating water!
A report by the Eurelectric group assessed the global hydro potential in four
cascading steps:
