Table Of ContentPergamon Policy Studies on
Socio-Economie Development
Barney Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. Entering
the 21st Century
Carman Obstacles to Mineral Development: A Pragmatic View
Franko/Seiber Developing Country Debt
Fritz Combatting Nutritional Blindness in Children: A Case
Study of Technical Assistance in Indonesia
Golany Arid Zone Settlement Planning: The Israeli Experience
Goodman/Love Integrated Project Planning and Management
Goodman/Love Management of Development Projects: An
International Case Study Approach
Gould Bureaucratic Corruption in the Third World: The
Administration of Underdevelopment in Zaire
Grundy/Hughes/McHale Evaluating Transnational Programs in
Government and Business
Kidd Manpower Policies for the Use of Science and Technology
in Development
Morgan Science and Technology for Development: The Role of
U.S. Universities
Morris Measuring the Condition of the World's Poor: The
Physical Quality of Life Index
Stepanek Bangladesh— Equitable Growth?
Thomas/Wionczek Intergration of Science and Technology with
Development: Caribbean and Latin American Problems in the
Context of the United Nations Conference on Science and
Technology for Development
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Hinich/Staelin Consumer Protection Legislation and the Food
Industry
Sinha The World Food Problem: Consensus and Conflict
Il
PERGAMON
ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC
POLICY
DEVELOPMENT
STUDIES
Critical
Food Issues
of the Eighties
Edited by
Marylin Chou
David P. Harmon, Jr.
Pergamon Press
NEW YORK · OXFORD · TORONTO · SYDNEY · FRANKFURT · PARIS
Pergamon Press Offices:
U.S.A. Pergamon Press Inc., Maxwell House, Fairview Park,
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U.K. Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall,
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FEDERAL REPUBLIC Pergamon Press GmbH, 6242 Kronberg/Taunus,
OF GERMANY Pferdstrasse 1, Federal Republic of Germany
Copyright © 1979 Pergamon Press Inc.
Library of Congress Cataloging In Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Critical food issues of the 1980s.
Includes bibliographical references and Index.
1. Food supply—Addresses, essays, lectures.
2. Food industry and trade—Addresses, essays, lectures.
3. Food industry and trade—United States—Addresses,
essays, lectures. 4. Nutrition policy—United States-
Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Chou, Marylin,
1933- II. Harmon, David P., 1937-
HD9000.6.C73 1979 338.1*9 79-14718
ISBN 0-08-024611-7
ISBN 0-08-024639-7 pbk.
All Rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means:
electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the
publishers.
Printed in the United States of America
Foreword
In the past decade, food and agriculture have become important
areas of interest for the United States and its citizens. First, there was
the extraordinarily widespread belief and the resulting intense campaign
of the sixties and early seventies to convince us that the mid-70s and
the 80s would be a time of worldwide food shortages and of starvation
in many areas. Equally intense, and probably for most Americans of
greater immediate importance, are a series of questions which range
from the safety of food for human health to the growing contribution of
food exports to pay for imports of energy and manufactured goods.
Increasingly it is recognized that the United States has a major asset in
its comparative advantage in agriculture.
Hudson Institute's work in the food area began in the late sixties,
when global grain shortages were causing concern, and in 1973
developed into a comprehensive project addressing this set of issues. At
that time many extreme "limits to growth" ideologies were quite
fashionable, particularly in intellectual circles. A major tenet of
almost all of these ideologies was the idea that world population would
grow esponentially, initially overshooting the ability of the planet to
feed these growing numbers, much less support tham with the amenities
to life. In examining the hypotheses of various kinds of physical limits
to growth, the Institute found, contrary to much current thinking, that
the world has - and will continue to have - sufficient physical and
technological resources to feed itself more than adequately. The
problems that are likely to be encountered do not lie in the physical and
technological areas, but rather in the "institutional" sphere. The
problems are largely social, ' political and economic and center on how
individual countries manage (or mismanage) the food growing,
processing and distributing resources available to them. This research,
funded partially by the National Science Foundation, culminated in the
book, World Food Prospects and Agricultural Potential (Praeger, 1977).
As a result ot research on institutional factors impeding countries'
agricultural and food supply development, we felt it would be
ix
X Foreword
appropriate to "turn down the microscope" several notches and examine
short term food issues that are and will be of concern to the food
industry, the U.S. government and the public. Many policy issues are
neither well formulated nor well understood by Americans, because, in
general, a balanced view is not readily available. This is increasingly
needed because the lack of understanding of issues, both by the public,
as well as by the government and industry policymakers, often leads to
faulty, costly decisions and programs. It is also important to temper
the adversary position in which the government and the food industry
often find themselves.
On the other hand, there is an increasing need to respond to public
needs and sensitivities, and to recognize the points of convergence
between the food and agricultural sector's activities and more general
social concerns. Issues must be well understood, if they are not to be
raised to emotional or politicized levels. Hudson Institute's expertise,
gained from eighteen years of studying policy issues and advising
corporate and government clients on matters of public interest, coupled
with the collective expertise and resources of the seven corporate
members, consultants, academic specialists and participating govern
ment agencies, were brought to bear on the major food and agriculture
issues that will face the nation in the next decade.
This is Hudson Institute's second major publication in the area of
food and agriculture. We are really pleased with both publications and
want to express our appreciation to both Marylin Chou and David P.
Harmon, Jr., who developed and implemented the Food, Agriculture,
and Society Research Program, from which these papers originated. We
believe that this book is an important contribution to better under
standing of these issues.
Herman Kahn
Preface
Critical Food Issues of the 1980s is a collection of presentations and
papers organized around four major topics. The first section covers the
socioeconomic climate likely to face the food industry and the country
over the next decade, followed by a discussion in the second section of
the changing nature of food and nutrition policies. The third section
covers the outlook for technology and the associated impact of
regulation - not only for food, but also for agricultural productivity and
agricultural chemicals. The book ends with an examination of food and
agricultural issues that will have a profound and continuing impact on
U.S. agricultural policy.
Critical Food Issues of the 1980s is the culmination of Hudson
Institute's Food, Agriculture, and Society Research Program, the
objectives of which were two-fold: 1) To focus on and provide
alternative solutions to current and near-term food and agricultural
policy issues wnich are likely to have a long-term effect on firms, the
government and the public; and 2) To increase public understanding of
the economic and sociopolitical aspects of the food and agriculture
sector.
The program offered opportunity for discussion, access to infor
mation and a vehicle to disseminate findings to both the public and
interested parties. Working sessions were used for information
exchange and for developing position papers. A very beneficial facet of
the research program was the continuing interest and participation of
several agencies of the U.S. government. Their participation was
invaluable in adding the appropriate degree of balance in both the
research and the conclusions that were drawn. In a program of this type
it was necessary to insure that the government's side as well as
industry's was heard. In some cases, the two viewpoints converged,
while in others they ranged from mildly contrary to highly opposed. An
example of the kind of issues the group dealt with was the question ,
"How can government policy encourage innovation and growth in the
food industry while at the same time provide realistic levels of
XI
Xll Critical Food Issues of the 1980s
protection for the public?" We asked both industry and government to
answer this question. We also asked the food industry to answer the
question of what role it should play in meeting the public's social and
economic demands - specifically when these demands converge with the
activities of the food industry.
The editors and authors of this book contend that there are seven
key issues and trends for the 1980s:
1) Greater concern over health, diet-related diseases, and the
formation of national nutrition policies. This is partly due to increased
wealth, greater technical knowledge, higher standards of living and a
greater concern for the quality of life.
2) Anxiety over food safety, due to an increasing amount of
paranoia or ideology often combined with improved scientific techni
ques that can detect increasingly smaller amounts of toxic substances.
Most of the fear focuses on the possible link of certain chemicals with
cancer.
3) A proliferation of regulations and laws designed to enhance food
quality and safety. Many of these are based on the premise of "better
safe than sorry," and will deter the introduction and acceptance of new
food products.
4) New lifestyles and values will demand increasing sensitivity in
marketing and promotion to meet the needs and attitudes of consumers
at home and abroad.
5) The move toward agricultural self-sufficiency by both developed
and developing countries. Adequate food production is a more likely
prospect than famine and dire shortages. Food problems will be
regional and caused by low incomes, poor distribution, and weather,
rather than by inadequate food production capabilities.
6) Increasingly, agricultural crops will be produced for export to
offset the higher cost of importing manufacured goods and energy, as
well as economic development.
7) Growing interdependence between the developed and developing
world will require flexible, multidimensional food policies.
Throughout the book the reader will find several "common threads."
A pro-technology message, coupled with a need to understand how
science, technology, and economic development proceed, is perhaps the
most pervasive underlying "common thread" explicit or implicit in the
papers. The participants agreed that one basic requirement necessary
to clarify today's misunderstanding of issues is to give the public and
members of government a clear picture of the dynamics and accom
plishments of science in the food and agriculture area, how scientific
progress proceeds, what science can and cannot do today, as well as
what we may expect from science in the future. Equally important is
the need for the food industry and the scientific community to
understand how regulatory agency staffs and elected representatives
Preface xiii
arrive at decisions based on real or perceived pressures from their
constituents.
Another principal common thread is the need to understand the
function of agricultural and food chemicals, as well as their benefits
and risks. A great deal of confusion, and even fear, over chemicals
exists today, which we foresee will grow in the future. This is evident
in 1979 in the growing interest in all suspected links between food and
cancer. Moreover, there is, and will continue to be, growing public
interest in nutrition and changing dietary habits, as our population mix
alters and as lifestyles change.
Finally, we looked for policy alternatives as well as consumer
attitudes and actions that could be considered "precursors" or "bell-
weathers" for the United States over the next decade. One key area is
Scandinavia, in particular Sweden, where the government has promul
gated a national nutrition policy and is taking strong action in the area
of alcohol and tobacco consumption.
Each section of the book opens with the highlights of the papers that
follow. The last section "turns up the microscope" a notch, examining
the world food outlook for the 1980s and ends with an incisive paper by
the USDA's former chief economist, Don Paarlberg, entitled "Coping
with Abundance - U.S. Agricultural Policy Alternatives."
The primary objective of the Food, Agriculture, and Society
Research Program and of this book is to present a balanced view of the
important food and agriculture issues likely to be with us throughout the
1980s. Only in this way can emotionalism and misunderstanding be
overcome. The openness of the meetings and of the dialogue, the mix
of the participants, the quality of the research, and the understanding
that Hudson Institute is chartered to operate in the public interest and
has a reputation for objectivity and integrity all helped to insure
balance and fairness in the conclusions and recommendations of the
research group.
Credits:
Fig. 1.1. From Ronald Freedman and Bernard Berelson, "The Human Population." Copyright 1974 by
Scientific American, Inc. All rights reserved.
Fig. 2.2. From American Cancer Society, 1979 Cancer Facts and Figures. Reprinted with permission.
Table 4.8. Dun 5 Bradstreet. Reprinted with permission.
Fig. 7.2. Food Technology copyright 1978. Reprinted with permission.
Table 7.2. Nutrition Reviews 32, no. 5 (May 1974). Reprinted with permission.
Table 8.6. Edward Ahrens, "The Management of Hyperlipidemias," in Annals of Internal Médecine,
copyright 1976. Reprinted with permission.
Fig. 10.2. Nutrition Reviews 36, no. 6 (June 1978). Reprinted with permission.
Fig. 10.3. Reproduced by permission from Food and Your Well-Being by Theodore P. Labuza, copyright
1977, West Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
Fig. 10.5. Fabian Linden, "Age and Income--1985," Conference Board Record 13 (June 1976). Reprinted
with permission.
Fig. 10.6. Food Technology copyright 1978. Reprinted with permission.
Fig. 12.1. Donald F. Miller, "Cereal Enrichment/Pellagra USA in Perspective 1977," paper presented
before the American Association of Cereal Chemists, San Francisco, October 24, 1977.
Fig. 12.3. Reproduced with permission of Nutrition Today magazine, 703 Giddings Avenue, Annapolis,
Maryland 21404. Copyright July/August 1973.
Table 15.1. M.L. Olson Wittmus and D. Lane, "Energy Requirements for Conventional Versus Minimum
Tillage," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 30: 72-75. Copyright 1975.
Fig. 15.1. Reprinted with permission from J.H. Pitchford, The Seventh Annual Fairy Lecture: The Better
Conservation of Liquid Fuels for Mobile Use, in Journal of Sound and Vibration, 1976. Copy
right by Academic Press (London), Ltd.
Fig. 16.1. API Special Report in Oil and Gas Journal (Nov. 10, 1975) p. 164. Reprinted with permission.
Table 16.1. Thomas, Synthetic Fuels Data, Cameron Engineers, Denver, 1975. Reprinted with permission.
Fig. 16.6. Coppoc, W.J., p. 24, Energy and Transportation--SP406, copyright 1976 Society of Automotive
Engineers, Inc. Used with permission.
Fig. 18.1. Aldrich, "Some Effects of Crop Production Technology on Environmental Quality," Bioscience 22
(February 1972), no. 22: 91. Reprinted with permission.
Table 18.1. Rita Gray Beatty, The DDT Myth, New York: John Day, 1973, p. 127. Reprinted with permission.
pp. 183-184. New York State College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. Reprinted with permission.
p. 206. Reprinted from Food Technology 32, no. 9 (1978): 48-53. Copyright by Institute of Food
Technologists. Reprinted with permission.
Table 6.1. Kagawa, "Impact of Westernization on Nutrition of Japanese," Preventive Médecine 7 (June 1978):
211. Copyright 1978. Reprinted with permission.
Table 19.6 From World Food Prospects and Agricultural Potential by Marylin Chou, David P. Harmon, Jr.,
Herman Kahn, and Sylvan Wittwer. Copyright 1977 by the Hudson Institute. Reprinted by permission
of Praeger Publishers, a division of Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
Acknowledgments
The papers comprising this book are the result of a year-long
cooperative research program initiated by Hudson Institute, with seven
members of the food and agriculture industries, specialists, and
government agencies. Castle and Cooke, Deere <5c Company, DeKalb
AgResearch, ITT/Continental Baking, Kraft, Inc., Nabisco, and The
Quaker Oats Company are the corporations which made possible the
Food, Agriculture, and Society Research Program and, as a result, this
book. The government agencies that participated were the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Office of Technology Assessment, Food and
Drug Administration, Department of Energy, and the Environmental
Protection Agency. The views expressed in the following papers are
those of the authors. It is to the credit of those companies and
participating government agencies that they recognized the need to
address the issues in a spirit of openness and frankness.
We wish to thank the Hudson support staff, particularly Carolann
Roussel, who coordinated the preparation of the manuscript, Kathy
Finch, Stephanie Tyler, Ilse Lehmeier, Blanche Gorton, Annie Small,
Connie Targonski, Elaine Shelah, Helen Iadanza, and Anne Marsek for
their help in typing the manuscript. We are, as always, indebted to
Mildred Schneck and Ruth Paul, our librarians, for their willingness and
cooperation in obtaining all the references used; to Ernest Schneider for
his editorial assistance; and to Gertrude Tuxen for her steadfast support
and encouragement. And finally, we especially wish to thank the staff
of the print shop for their help in printing and assembling all the papers
and proceedings.
Marylin Chou <5c David P. Harmon, Jr.
Coeditors
Autumn 1978
xv
