Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics: From El Nino to Climate Change

424 Pages·2023·67.768 MB·English

by  Shang-Ping Xie

COUPLED
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
DYNAMICS: FROM EL
~
NINO TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
SHANG-PINGXIE,Ph.D.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
University of California San Diego,
LaJolla, CA,USA.
CoupledAtmosphere-OceanDynamics:fromElNin~otoClimateChange
Elsevier
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Epilogue
The ocean surface may seem flat and featureless, but sea surface temperature (SST) var-
iationsbecomeapparentfromaspaceborneinfraredradiometer(seeFig3.3),explaining
whyPanamaiscoveredbydenseforestswhilecoastalPeru,justontheothersideofthe
equator,isbarrendesert.Thisbookshowcasesrichdynamicsofourclimatesystemarising
from ocean-atmosphere coupling.
Spontaneous oscillations
TheequatorialPacificisvastandremote.Fewofushavebeentothispartoftheworld,
butmosthavefeltitspulsesthroughElNin~o-SouthernOscillation(ENSO).Theequator
is where the Coriolis parameter vanishes, allowing the cold water to upwell and Kelvin
wavesto propagate.A ribbon of low SSTs gives theequator away and wipes out atmo-
sphericconvectionacrosstheeasterntwo-thirdsoftheequatorialPacific(seeFig.9.4A),
depriving the Galapagos of “the beauty which generally accompanies such a position”
(Keynes 2021). From the International Dateline to the Greenwich longitude, the inter-
tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is displaced north of the equator.
The circular argument led Bjerknes to suggest that ENSO is a coupled ocean-
atmospheric phenomenon. The coupled feedback of his namesakedinvolving the
east-west interaction of ocean upwelling and thermocline depth with atmospheric
deepconvectionandwindsdgivesrisetoENSOaswellastheAtlanticNin~oandIndian
Oceandipole(IOD)(seeFigs.9.5,10.6,and11.7).ENSOisbyfarthemostpronounced,
dueto the large zonal width and hencelong wave transittime that keeps thePacific off
thebalanceand setsitto oscillate.TheBjerknesfeedback andthedelayedactionof un-
balanced ocean thermocline depth anomalies allow ENSO prediction at lead times of a
few seasons.
Surface heat flux becomes important for SST variability off equatorial upwelling
zones, over the broad tropics and subtropics. While the Bjerknes mode centers on the
equator, wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback selectively amplifies antisymmetric
perturbationsacrosstheequator.Suchcross-equatorialWESfeedbackhasbeenidentified
in meridional modes of interannual variability over all three tropical oceans (see
Figs. 9.18C, 10.8, and 11.11), most pronounced during February-March-April when
the mean climate is warm and nearly symmetric about the equator and moderate SST
anomalies can cause large convective response in the atmosphere.
Extratropical atmospheric variability modulates the subtropical trade winds in the
NorthAtlanticandNorthPacific,withthePacificmeridionalmode(PMM)asaconduit
397
398 Epilogue
to affect ENSO. The subtropical WES feedback gives rise to the west-equatorward
slanted pattern (see Fig. 12.13), energized by the low cloud-SST feedback under the
Northeast Pacific stratus deck.
While SST modes are often discussed within ocean basins, the atmosphere is con-
nected globally. IOD and ENSO are statistically correlated and physically connected
through the Walker circulation. ENSO affects the tropical North Atlantic through the
equatorial Kelvin wave as well as the PacificeNorth American (PNA) pattern (see
Fig. 10.18). Conversely, equatorial waves allow Atlantic SST variability to modulate
ENSO.Suchcross-basininteractionsandcouplingcontributetorichtropicalvariability,
a topic of strong current interest.
Monsoons result from ocean-land-atmosphere interactions, but large-scale modes of
interannual variability in the Asian summer monsoon are shaped mostly by coupled
ocean-atmosphere dynamics. ENSO is the dominant driver, not only directly but also
throughthedelayedeffectoftheIndo-westernPacificOceancapacitor(IPOC).Encom-
passingthethreesubmonsoonsystems,Therecurrentanomalousanticycloniccirculation
isanchoredandenergizedbythebarotropicenergyconversationinthemeanconfluence
of the monsoon westerlies and easterly trades (see Box Fig. 11.2). Thus the IPOC is
shaped by the summer monsoon and shapes the monsoon variability at the same time,
although the role of land surface in large-scale variability remains fully explored.
In an audacious attempt to predict Indian summer rainfall, Walker discovered the
Southern Oscillation, which by itself has little predictive value. Summer India rainfall
variability is correlated with the antecedent May Southern Oscillation Index only
marginallyatr¼0.24for1875-1930.Thephysicalinsightsgainedintocoupleddynamics
since Bjerknes (1969) have eventually realized Walker’s dream of monsoon prediction.
First,antecedentENSOstateisaskillfulpredictorforthetimingoftheIndianmonsoon
onset (the IPOC effect). Second, dynamic models show skills in predicting developing
ENSO events by tapping into the ocean initial conditions. The predicted summer
ENSO state then can be used to forecast monsoon rainfall (see Fig. 11.20). How far
have we come!
Globally,ENSOisbyfarthemostimportantpredictorforclimatevariationsatleads
fromamonthtoaseason,althoughtheteleconnectionmechanismvariesfrombaroclinic
atmospheric waves in the tropics, the barotropic PNA pattern, to the coupled IPOC.
Regional predictability can be further gained from other tropical modes as during the
12-month period from September 2019 to August 2020 over the Indo-western Pacific
region (see Fig. 11.23).
Energy view
UnlikeENSO,whicharisesduetointernalpositivefeedback,someclimateanomaliesare
induced by radiative perturbations. Climate feedback analysis based on global energy
Epilogue 399
conservation is useful in quantifying global mean surface temperature response to radia-
tive perturbations. The radiative forcing due to anthropogenic increase of greenhouse
gases is nearly spatially uniform, but the ocean heat uptake is confined in the subpolar
North Atlantic and Southern Ocean upwelling zone. This, along with the subtropical
low clouds, introduces the so-called spatial-pattern effect that complicates the global
climate feedback analysis.
Cross-equatorial energy transport is a useful predictor of meridional asymmetry in
climate response. In the deep tropics where the gross moist stability is small due to
deep convection, the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation and ITCZ are highly sensitive
totheinterhemisphericdifferenceinenergyfluxintotheatmosphericcolumn.Theen-
ergy transport constraint offers a useful framework to study the meridional interactions
across different dynamic regimes: the ITCZ in the deep tropics, WES and low-cloud
feedback in the subtropics, midlatitude storm tracks, the Atlantic Meridional Overturn-
ing Circulation (AMOC) heat uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic, and polar sea ice.
The atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a slab ocean model
shows some promise to diagnose climate response to sea surface heat flux distribution
(Huetal.2022).ThisisakintoatmosphericGCMsasatooltodiagnosetheatmospheric
response to SST anomalies.
Outlook
Climatepredictionfaces differentchallenges than weatherforecast, whichbenefitsfrom
daily validation where observations confront prediction. SST reconstructions based on
instrumental observations extend back 150 years. The spatiotemporal sampling and
coverage improved around 1950 and then again in the satellite era (1980w). The SST
reconstructionsincludew40ENSOcycles,onparwiththenumberofsynopticweather
cyclesoneencountersinasingleyearatastationinthemidlatitudestormtrack.Weather
forecastbasedontheobservationsof40stormswouldbeofsomeskill,buttheywouldbe
far from what we enjoy today given blockings and other modes of low-frequency vari-
ability (MJO, ENSO, NAO, etc.). This illustrates how limited our observations of
climate variability are, and how much more there is to learn about climate dynamics.
Earth climate experienced climate variability of much larger amplitudes on geologic
timescales, including the recurrent glacial-interglacial cycles and precessional modula-
tions of monsoons. For instance, global climate anomalies during Heinrich events (see
Fig.12.19)seemconsistentwiththecross-equatorialenergytransporttheoryinresponse
to an AMOC shutdown induced by massive freshwater discharges into the North
Atlantic. Rapid expansion in the spatiotemporal coverage of paleoclimate proxy recon-
structions has much to offer in terms of further insights into the climate system (Valdes
et al. 2021), in regimes beyond observed during the instrumental era. Instrumental
data, climate models, and paleoclimate proxies, each of their own limitations, together
400 Epilogue
offer complementary and fuller views of the climate system. The resultant insights will
help us better anticipate and prepare for unfolding climate change.
ThesocietalneedformonsoonforecastandcuriosityattheequatorialPacificoscilla-
tionbetweenElNin~oandLaNin~aledustoseetheatmosphereandoceanasacoupled
interactivesystem.Thecoupledviewhassinceexpandedtoincludeothercomponentsof
the Earth system: hydrology, glaciology, forestry, and biogeochemical cycle. Instru-
mental observations show that ocean-atmosphere coupling on which this book focuses
is the core mechanism for climate variations on timescales from a season to a century,
althoughthecarboncycleandglacierdynamicsbecomeimportantonlongertimescales.
As global warming hasgrown to be themost pressing problem of our time, climate dy-
namics as a field of study is evolving to embrace increasing societal need for actionable
science and sustainable management of water, energy, forestry, and fisheries.
Now I see
WritingthisbookasasequeltoGill(1982)hasbeeninmyplanforalongtime.Thebook
project kicked off in the summer of 2018 amid a record marine heatwave off La Jolla
coast. Just as I was warming up for the spring quarter, California Governor Gavin
“Newsom” ordered a statewide lockdown on March 19, 2020 in response to the
growing COVID-19 pandemic. Like many teachers, I had to improvise teaching on
Zoom, with students logging in from three continents.
“Ionce.wasblind,butnowIsee.”OntheemptystepsofthegrandMilancathe-
dral, Italian singer Andrew Bocelli sang to a world in despair. The song and the scene
gave us courage to persevere. Spring came and went. During the ensuring 2 years, the
manuscript underwent several revisions.
Tranquilityaffordedbyworkingfromhomeletmeseenewconnections,atnightin
the home office and under dazzling sunshine on hiking trails: low-cloud feedback is
nonlocal and joins forces with WES feedback (see Fig. 6.12) to make the PMM a key
conduit for extratropical-to-tropical teleconnections (see Figs. 12.13 and 14.20).
Zoom discussions across the Pacific led us to conclude “historic Yangtze flooding of
2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions” (Zhou et al. 2021) (see Fig. 11.23).
Highly effective vaccines developed at record speed gave hopes at the darkest mo-
mentsofthepandemic.Asthebookprojectcomestoanend,I’mwarmingupforspring
quarter classes, in person with masks.
Shang-Ping Xie
19 March 2022, San Diego
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