Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt (Chapter 1 only)

51 Pages·2014·1.444 MB·English

by  Tarek Masoud

Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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CountingIslam
Religion,Class,andElectionsinEgypt
WhydoesIslamseemtodominateelectoralpoliticsinthecountriesofthe
so-calledArabSpring,especiallywhenendemicpovertyanddeepeco-
nomicinequalitywouldseemtorendernewArabdemocraciespromising
terrainforapoliticsofradicalredistributionratherthanoneofreligious
conservativism? This book argues that the answer lies not in the politi-
calunsophisticationofvoters,thesubordinationofeconomicintereststo
spiritual ones, or the ineptitude of secular and leftist politicians, but in
structuralfactorsthatshapeparties’opportunitiesforreachingpotential
voters.TracingtheperformanceofIslamistsandtheirrivalsinEgyptian
elections over the course of almost forty years, this book not only ex-
plains why Islamists win elections but also illuminates the possibilities
for the emergence in Egypt and the Arab world of the kind of political
pluralismthatisattheheartofwhatweexpectfromdemocracy.
Tarek Masoud is an associate professor of public policy at Harvard
University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. His writings
on political Islam, Egyptian politics, and U.S. foreign policy have
appearedintheJournalofDemocracy,theWashingtonQuarterly,Foreign
Policy, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal, among oth-
ers.Heistheco-editorofProblemsandMethodsintheStudyofPolitics
(Cambridge University Press, 2004) and Order, Conflict, and Violence
(CambridgeUniversityPress,2008).HewasnamedaCarnegieScholar
bytheCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandreceivedthe2009Aaron
Wildavsky Prize for best dissertation in religion and politics from the
AmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation.Heisarecipientofgrantsand
fellowships from the National Science Foundation, the Paul and Daisy
SorosFoundation,andtheHarvardMedicalSchoolandisatermmem-
beroftheCouncilonForeignRelations.HeholdsaPh.D.fromYaleand
anA.B.fromBrown,bothinpoliticalscience.
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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ProblemsofInternationalPolitics
SeriesEditors:
KeithDarden,AmericanUniversity
IanShapiro,YaleUniversity
Theseriesseeksmanuscriptscentraltotheunderstandingofinternationalpolitics
thatwillbeempiricallyrichandconceptuallyinnovative.Itisinterestedinworks
that illuminate the evolving character of nation-states within the international
system. It sets out three broad areas for investigation: (1) identity, security, and
conflict;(2)democracy;and(3)justiceanddistribution.
TitlesintheSeries:
ŞenerAktürk,RegimesofEthnicityandNationhoodinGermany,Russia,and
Turkey
DonaldHorowitz,ConstitutionalChangeandDemocracyinIndonesia
AdriaLawrence,ImperialRuleandthePoliticsofNationalism:Anti-Colonial
ProtestintheFrenchEmpire
StevenLevitskyandLucanA.Way,CompetitiveAuthoritarianism:Hybrid
RegimesaftertheColdWar
HarrisMylonas,ThePoliticsofNation-Building:MakingCo-Nationals,
Refugees,andMinorities
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org
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978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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Counting Islam
Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
TAREK MASOUD
JohnF.KennedySchoolofGovernment,HarvardUniversity
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978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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ISBN978-1-107-00987-5(hardback)–ISBN978-0-521-27911-6(paperback)
1. Islamandpolitics–Egypt. 2. Jam’iyatal-Ikhwanal-Muslimin(Egypt)
3. ArabSpring,2010– 4. Elections–Corruptpractices–Egypt.
5. Authoritarianism–Egypt. 6. Muslims–Egypt–Socialconditions.
7. Egypt–Politicsandgovernment. I. Title.
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978-1-107-00987-5 - Counting Islam: Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt
Tarek Masoud
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Contents
ListofFigures pageviii
ListofTables xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xv
ANoteonTransliteration xxi
Introduction:AnIslamistMonopoly 1
1 ExplainingIslamistDominion 14
I ISLAMISTS AND THEIR RIVALS IN AUTHORITARIAN ELECTIONS
2 ClientelismandClass:TheTragedyofLeftist
OppositioninMubarak’sEgypt 45
3 TheIslamicMachine? 74
4 Winninginthe“Well-RunCasino” 93
II ISLAMISTS AND THEIR RIVALS AFTER THE “ARAB SPRING”
5 God,Mammon,andTransition 123
6 Islam’sOrganizationalAdvantage?Or,WhyVotersThinkIslamists
AreLeftists 155
7 Connections,NotCreed:FurtherEvidencefromEgyptandBeyond 183
8 Conclusion 207
Bibliography 227
Index 241
vii
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Tarek Masoud
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Figures
1.1 Acartoondepictionofreligion’spoliticalappeal.FromJarīdat
al-Ikhwānal-Muslimīn(theBrotherhood’sofficialnewspaper),
January1945 page15
1.2 Relationshipbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandreligious
politics,accordingtothesecularizationthesis 17
1.3 Typesofpartieslabeledbest/most“organized,”“disciplined,”
“unified,”or“cohesive”inEnglish-languagescholarlyand
journalisticliteratures,1893–2011(N =108) 30
1.4 Mosquesbygovernorate 34
1.5 ProportionofprivatevoluntaryorganizationsthatareIslamic,by
governorate,2007 36
1.6 Laboruniondensity,bygovernorate,2006 38
1.7 ReligiousversusnonreligiousassociationsinEgypt 39
1.8 Relationshipbetweendevelopment,politicalopportunity
structures,andreligiouspartydominance 41
2.1 AnillustratedcritiqueofMubarak-eraelections 50
2.2 Ideologicalself-placementofEgyptianson“left-right”spectrum 58
2.3 WhatEgyptianswantintheirpoliticalcandidates 62
2.4 Illiteracyrateandruling-partyvoteshare,1984 65
2.5 Illiteracyrateandleftist-partyvoteshare,1984 66
3.1 ThelimitsofIslamichealthcareinyieldingvotesunderMubarak 89
4.1 MuslimBrotherhoodwinners’voteshares(2005) 96
4.2 MuslimBrotherhoodwinners’voteshares,byelectoralphase
(2005) 97
4.3 EducationalattainmentofNDPversusMuslimBrotherhood
deputies,2005 99
4.4 InternetpresencesoftheMuslimBrotherhood,therulingparty,
andsecularoppositionparties 100
viii
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ListofFigures ix
4.5 EgyptianGooglesearchesforpoliticalpartiesduringrecent
Egyptianelections 102
4.6 IlliteracyrateandWafd/MuslimBrotherhoodvoteshare,1984 104
4.7 MuslimBrotherhoodvotesharesversusadultilliteracyrate,
2005 105
4.8 EffectofsocioeconomicstatusonprobabilityofMuslim
Brotherhoodnomination 111
4.9 District-leveldistributionofblindnessinEgypt,1937 116
4.10 RelationshipbetweenaverageblindnessrateandMuslim
Brotherhoodestablishmentofbranches,1937 119
5.1 MostEgyptiansbelievethatthegovernment,asopposedtothe
individual,isresponsibleforcitizens’well-being(December
2011) 128
5.2 MostEgyptianswantthegovernmenttofocusonredistributing
wealthratherthansimplymaximizingeconomicgrowth
(December2011) 128
5.3 ResultsofEgyptianPeople’sAssemblyelection,November
2011–January2012 132
5.4 Department-levelpercentageofyesvotesversusadultilliteracy,
Egyptianconstitutionalreferendum,March2011 136
5.5 Supportforsharīʿa,Egypt,June–July2011 137
5.6 ConcernsofEgyptiansafterthe2011revolution 137
5.7 EconomicandsocialpositionsofFreedomandJusticeandNūr
parties,asjudgedbyrespondentsinDecember2011 144
5.8 Voterself-placementsoneconomicandsocialpolicies,
December2011 145
5.9 Meanplacementofpartiesandmeanself-placementon
economicissues 148
5.10 EgyptiansfeelthattheyknowmoreaboutIslamistparties’
economicpositionsthanaboutthoseoftheirrivals,especially
leftistones 153
6.1 TheMuslimBrotherhood’sorganizationalhierarchy 160
6.2 MosquedensityinCairoandAlexandria 171
6.3 MarginaleffectsofmosquedensityonIslamistvotinginCairo
andAlexandria 174
6.4 Simulatedeffectofreligiouslessonattendanceonprobabilityof
identifyingIslamistpartiesasnonredistributiveand
antiwelfare-statist 179
6.5 Simulatedeffectofunionmembershiponprobabilityof
identifyingNPURasnonredistributiveandantiwelfare-statist 180
7.1 VotingforFJPversusvotingforMohamedMorsi 185
7.2 ComparisonofIslamistvotesharesinparliamentaryand
presidentialelections(2011–12) 187
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x ListofFigures
7.3 Qism-levelvoteshareforḤamdīnṢabāḥī,May23–24,
2012 191
7.4 Qism-levelvoteshareforAḥmadShafīq,May23–24,2012 192
7.5 VotedifferencebetweenShafīqandMorsi,al-Sharqiyya
Governorate,2012presidentialelection 193
7.6 ConcernsofTunisiansafterthe2011revolution 195
7.7 Voteshareforal-ʿArīḍaal-ShaʿbiyyaacrossTunisian
muʿtamadiyyāt,October2011 200
7.8 VoteshareforCPRacrossTunisianmuʿtamadiyyāt,October2011 201
8.1 VoterconfidenceintheMuslimBrotherhoodinthe
post-Mubarakera 212
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