Corporate Foresight and Strategic Decisions: Lessons from a European Bank

373 Pages·2013·2.478 MB·English

by  Claudio Gomez Portaleoni, Svetla Marinova, Rehan ul-Haq, Marin Marinov (auth.)

Corporate Foresight and Strategic Decisions
AlsobyMarinMarinov
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE (with Svetla
Marinova)
EMERGINGECONOMIESANDFIRMSINTHEGLOBALCRISIS(withSvetlaMarinova)
IMPACTSOFEMERGINGECONOMIESANDFIRMSONINTERNATIONALBUSINESS
(withSvetlaMarinova)
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS (with Michael Czinkota, Ilkka Ronkainen, Michael Moffett
andSvetlaMarinova)
INTERNATIONALIZATIONINCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPE
INTERNATIONALIZATION OF EMERGING ECONOMIES AND FIRMS (with Svetla
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MARKETING IN THE EMERGING MARKETS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE:
TheBalkans
MARKETINGINTHEEMERGINGMARKETSOFISLAMICCOUNTRIES
MARKETINGINTHEEMERGINGMARKETSOFLATINAMERICA
SUCCESSESANDCHALLENGESOFMULTINATIONALSFROMEMERGING
ECONOMIES(withSvetlaMarinova)
THECHANGINGNATUREOFDOINGBUSINESSINTRANSITIONECONOMIES(with
SvetlaMarinova)
AlsobySvetlaMarinova
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE (with Marin
Marinov)
EMERGINGECONOMIESANDFIRMSINTHEGLOBALCRISIS(withMarinMarinov)
IMPACTSOFEMERGINGECONOMIESANDFIRMSONINTERNATIONALBUSINESS
(withMarinMarinov)
INTERNATIONALIZATION OF EMERGING ECONOMIES AND FIRMS (with Marin
Marinov)
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS (with Michael Czinkota, Ilkka Ronkainen, Michael Moffett
andMarinMarinov)
SUCCESSESANDCHALLENGESOFMULTINATIONALSFROMEMERGING
ECONOMIES(withMarinMarinov)
THECHANGINGNATUREOFDOINGBUSINESSINTRANSITIONECONOMIES(with
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AlsobyRehanul-Haq
ALLIANCESANDCO-EVOLUTION:InsightsfromtheBankingSector
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Corporate Foresight and
Strategic Decisions
Lessons from a European Bank
Claudio Gomez Portaleoni
Siemens,Germany
Svetla Marinova
AalborgUniversity,Denmark
Rehan ul-Haq
EmeritusLecturer,UniversityofBirmingham,UK
Marin Marinov
UniversityofGloucestershire,UK
©ClaudioGomezPortaleoni,SvetlaMarinova,Rehanul-Haq
andMarinMarinov,2013
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-1-137-32696-6
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Wededicatethisbooktoourloving,compassionateandinspiringfamilies
Claudio,Svetla,RehanandMarin
Tomyparents–MariaIsabelandClaudioSr.
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Marin
Contents
ListofFiguresandTables xi
PrefaceandAcknowledgements xvii
Introduction 1
Whatistheinfluenceofmanagersonforesightprocesses? 3
Howarecorporateforesightprocessesinorganizations
currentlymanifested? 4
Towhatextentdoestheouterenvironmentimpact
corporateforesight? 4
Whatimpactdocorporateforesightresults
haveonstrategicdecisions? 4
1 LiteratureReview 6
Strategicmanagementresearch 6
Definitionofstrategyinstrategicmanagementresearch 6
Perspectivesonstrategyandstrategymanagementresearch 7
Locationofcorporateforesightresearchwithinstrategic
processresearch 10
Corporateforesight 13
Conceptualizationanddevelopmentoffuturesstudies 13
Fromforecastingtoforesight 14
Individualandmanagerialforesight 16
Corporateforesight–Thephenomenonunderinvestigation 23
Functionalandprocessualperspectivesoncorporateforesight 37
Manifestationsofforesightactivitiesincorporations 47
Corporateforesighttoolsandmethods 52
Corporateforesightandtheenvironment–acontextual
perspective 57
Definitionandconceptualizationoftheenvironment 58
Environmentalinfluencesonorganizationalreality 59
Contextuallevelofforesight 63
Strategicdecision-making 65
Definitionofjudgement 66
Definitionanddelineationofdecisionanddecision-making 68
Definitionanddelineationofstrategicdecision-making 70
Theoreticalperspectivesonstrategicdecision-making 70
vii
viii Contents
Informationperspectiveonuncertaintyandstrategic
decision-making 75
2 ConceptualFrameworkandTheoreticalConsiderations 84
Introduction 84
Managerialperspectiveoncorporateforesight 85
Organizationalperspectiveoncorporateforesight 86
Environmentalperspectiveoncorporateforesight 87
Corporateforesightanditsimpactonjudgementand
decision-making 88
Conceptualframeworktostudytheimpactofcorporate
foresightonstrategicdecisions 91
3 Methodology 92
Researchdesignandstrategy 95
Samplingconsiderationsandthechoiceofaresearchsite 95
Theidentificationoftheunitofanalysisandinformants 98
Collectionofdata 100
Processingdata 101
Analysingthedata 104
Credibilityofresearchfindingsinqualitativeresearch 109
Finalnotes 113
4 TheEuropeanBankingSector 114
StructureandtrendsintheEuropeanbankingsector 115
ChangesandtrendsintheEuropeanbankingsector 120
OperativeandstrategicviewontrendsoftheEuropean
bankingsector 122
TheEuropeanbankingsectorin2015–Bankexpectations 122
StrategicperspectiveontheEuropeanbankingsector 124
5 TheBank 126
Overviewofthecaseandethicalconsiderations 126
Contextoftheorganization 127
Theorganization’sstructure 128
Keyfinancialfigures 129
6 DataAnalysisandFindings 130
Part1:Managerialperspectiveoncorporateforesight 130
Bankers’familiaritywithcorporateforesight 130
Popularityofcorporateforesightanditsperceived
usefulness–Perspectivefromafunctionallevel 133
Assignmentofperceivedusefulnesstocorporateforesight 140
Bankers’opennessandreservationtowardscorporate
foresight–Afunctionalperspective 147
Contents ix
Findings–Part1:Managerialperspectiveoncorporate
foresight 154
Part2:Organizationalperspectiveoncorporateforesight 156
Corporateforesightanditsformalandinformal
manifestationsatthebank–Adepartmental
perspective 156
Corporateforesightanditsformalandinformalmanifestation
atthebank–Aninter-departmentalperspective 163
Interviewees’perceptionofcorporateforesightonanoverall
organizationallevel 168
Internalallocationofandresponsibilityforcorporate
foresightintheorganization 171
Internalcollaborationbetweenthedepartmentsintermsof
corporateforesight 180
Findings–Part2:Organizationalperspectiveoncorporate
foresight 183
Part3:Environmentalperspectiveoncorporateforesight 185
Externalenvironmentalcharacteristicsandtheirimpacton
themanifestationofcorporateforesight 185
Environmentallayers’impactoncorporateforesight
accordingtoperceptiveevaluations 193
Corporateforesightandunderstandingmultiplefuturesof
thegeneralenvironment 202
Findings–Part3:Environmentalperspectiveoncorporate
foresight 207
Part4:Corporateforesight,judgementandtheimpacton
strategicdecisions 208
Theimpactofmanagerial,organizationalandenvironmental
conditionsonjudgement:Anevaluativeperspectiveon
corporateforesightinformation 209
Theimpactofbankers’opennessandattitudetowards
corporateforesightinformationonevaluativejudgement 209
Organizationalcharacteristicsandthepropensityofbankers
tointegratecorporateforesight:Aninformational
perspectiveonevaluativejudgements 212
Theinfluenceofenvironmentalcharacteristicsonbankers’
evaluativejudgement 215
Findings–Part4(i):Anevaluativejudgementalperspective
oncorporateforesightinformation 217
Theimpactofmanagerial,organizationalandenvironmental
conditionsonjudgement:Apredictiveperspectiveon
corporateforesightinformation,Part4(ii) 218
Findings–Part4(ii):Apredictivejudgementperspectiveon
corporateforesightinformation 233
x Contents
Corporateforesightandstrategicdecisions:Examplesof
corporateforesightanditsimpactonstrategicdecisions 236
Findings–Part4(iii):Corporateforesight,judgementandthe
impactonstrategicdecisions 244
7 Discussion,ContributionsandDirectionsforFuture
Research 247
Conceptualcontributions 247
Corporateforesight’snatureanditsstrategicembeddedness 248
Atrichotomousapproachtoanalysingcorporateforesight 250
Integrationofjudgementasanintermediatefilterbetween
corporateforesightandstrategicdecisions 251
Empiricalcontributions 252
Managerialperspectiveonstudyingcorporateforesightwith
referencetoareasofinvestigation,Part1 252
Organizationalperspectiveonstudyingcorporateforesight
withreferencetoareasofinvestigation,Part2 256
Environmentalperspectiveonstudyingcorporateforesight
withreferencetoareasofinvestigation,Part3 258
Impactofcorporateforesightonstrategicdecisionwith
referencetoareasofinvestigation,Part4 263
Managerialimplications 270
Researchlimitationsandsuggestionsforfutureresearch 273
Appendices 276
Notes 323
References 325
Index 343