Table Of ContentTable of Contents
Preface
Introduction
PART 1 - Qualitative Methods for Evaluating the
Reliability of Civil Engineering Structures
Introduction to Part 1
Chapter 1. Methods for System Analysis and Failure Analysis
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Structural analysis
1.3. Functional analysis
1.4. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
1.5. Bibliography
Chapter 2. Methods for Modeling Failure Scenarios
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Event tree method
2.3. Fault tree method
2.4. Bow-tie method
2.5. Criticality evaluation methods
Chapter 3. Application to a Hydraulic Civil Engineering Project
3.1. Context and approach for an operational reliability study
3.2. Functional analysis and failure mode analysis
3.3. Construction of failure scenarios
3.4. Scenario criticality analysis
3.5. Application summary
3.6. Bibliography
PART 2 - Heterogeneity and Variability of Materials:
Consequences for Safety and Reliability
Introduction to Part 1
Chapter 4. Uncertainties in Geotechnical Data
4.1. Various sources of uncertainty in geotechnical
engineering
4.2. Erroneous, censored and sparse data
4.3. Statistical representation of data
4.4. Data modeling
4.5. Conclusion
4.6. Bibliography
Chapter 5. Some Estimates on the Variability of Material Properties
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Mean value estimation
5.3. Estimation of characteristic values
5.4. Principles of a geostatistical study
5.5. Bibliography
Chapter 6. Reliability of a Shallow Foundation Footing
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Bearing capacity models for strip foundations – modeling
errors
6.3. Effects of soil variability on variability in bearing
capacity and safety of the foundation
6.4. Taking account of the structure of the spatial correlation
and its influence on the safety of the foundation
6.5. Conclusions
6.6. Bibliography
PART 3 - Metamodels for Structural Reliability
Introduction to Part 3
Chapter 7. Physical and Polynomial Response Surfaces
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Background to the response surface method
7.3. Concept of a response surface
7.4. Usual reliability methods
7.5. Polynomial response surfaces
7.6. Conclusion
7.7. Bibliography
Chapter 8. Response Surfaces based on Polynomial Chaos
Expansions
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Building of a polynomial chaos basis
8.3. Computation of the expansion coefficients
8.4. Applications in structural reliability
8.5. Conclusion
8.6. Bibliography
PART 4 - Methods for Structural Reliability over Time
Introduction to Part 4
Chapter 9. Data Aggregation and Unification
9.1. Introduction
9.2. Methods of data aggregation and unification
9.3. Evaluation of evacuation time for an apartment in case of
fire
9.4. Conclusion
9.5. Bibliography
Chapter 10. Time-Variant Reliability Problems
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Random processes
10.3. Time-variant reliability problems
10.4. PHI2 method
10.5. Industrial application: truss structure under time-varying
loads
10.6. Conclusion
10.7. Bibliography
Chapter 11. Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Methods
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Bayesian Inference
11.3. MCMC methods for weakly informative data
11.4. Estimating a competing risk model from censored and
incomplete data
11.5. Conclusion
11.6. Bibliography
Chapter 12. Bayesian Updating Techniques in Structural Reliability
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Problem statement: link between measurements and
model prediction
12.3. Computing and updating the failure probability
12.4. Updating a confidence interval on response quantities
12.5. Bayesian updating of the model basic variables
12.6. Updating the prediction of creep strains in containment
vessels of nuclear power plants
12.7. Conclusion
12.8. Acknowledgments
12.9. Bibliography
PART 5 - Reliability-based Maintenance Optimization
Introduction to Part 5
Chapter 13. Maintenance Policies
13.1. Maintenance
13.2. Types of maintenance
13.3. Maintenance models
13.4. Conclusion
13.5. Bibliography
Chapter 14. Maintenance Cost Models
14.1. Preventive maintenance
14.2. Maintenance based on time
14.3. Maintenance based on age
14.4. Inspection models
14.5. Structures with large lifetimes
14.6. Criteria for choosing a maintenance policy
14.7. Example of a corroded steel pipeline
14.8. Conclusion
14.9. Bibliography
Chapter 15. Practical Aspects: Industrial Implementation and
Limitations in a Multi-criteria Context
15.1. Introduction
15.2. Motorway concession with high performance
requirements
15.3. Ageing of civil engineering structures: using field data to
update predictions
15.4. Conclusion
15.5. Bibliography
Conclusion
List of Symbols
List of Authors
Index
First published 2011 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or
review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may
only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior
permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in
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ISTE Ltd John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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© ISTE Ltd 2011
The rights of Julien Baroth, Franck Schoefs, Denys Breysse to be identified as the authors of
this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents
Act 1988.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Construction reliability / edited by Julien Baroth, Franck Schoefs, Denys Breysse.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-84821-230-5
1. Buildings--Reliability. 2. Public works--Reliability. 3. Structural failures--Prevention. I.
Baroth, Julien. II. Schoefs, Franck. III. Breysse, D.
TA656.C68 2011
624--dc23
2011019207
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-1-84821-230-5
Preface
From 26 to 28 March 2008, a conference entitled “Fiabilité des matériaux et des structures"
(“Reliability of materials and structures", JNFiab’08)1 took place at the University of Nantes,
France, bringing together the French scientific communities interested in reliability and risk
analysis, as applied to materials and structures. This colloquium followed on from several
different events: the fifth “Reliability of materials and structures" conference, the second
Méc@proba training day2 and the second scientific session in the subject area of
“Understanding risk in civil engineering" (MRGenCi scientific interest group3).
It combined their themes and concerns as an extension of the first shared workshop between
the Associations Françaises de Génie Civil (AFGC, or French Associations of Civil
Engineering4) and the Associations Françaises de Méchanique (AFM, or French Associations
of Mechanical Engineering)5, during the twenty-fifth annual meeting of the Association
Universitaire de Génie Civil (AUGC, Universities civil engineering association6) held on
23–25 May 2007, in Bordeaux, France.
This book was first conceived during these sessions, organized by the MRGenCi and
Méc@Proba scientific interest groups, where the authors gave presentations on the advances
they have made in their respective fields.
Although the examples of structures that can be found in this book fall under the umbrella of
civil engineering (nuclear and oil industries, buildings and dams), themethods we consider are
just as applicable to any sort of complex mechanical system involving a large number of
uncertainties. Thus the book is of interest to the civil engineering community but also to
mechanical engineers or those interested in reliability theory, whether their background is in
industry or academia, who have been exposed to research and development processes. Masters
students, engineering students and doctoral students, engineers and research associates will all
find a detailed discussion of methods and applications.
The authors are indebted to the two main proofreaders, with their complementary
backgrounds. The first is Maurice Lemaire, a university professor who teaches at the Institut
Français de Mécanique Avancée (IFMA, French Institute for Advanced Mechanical
Engineering7) and at the Blaise Pascal University8 (UBP) at Clermont-Ferrand, and who is
consultant to the company Phimeca9 which he co-founded. The second is André Lannoy, Vice-
President of the Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques (IMdR, Institute for Risk
Management10), who built his career as a research engineer and subsequently as scientific
adviser to the research and development section of EDF. In particular, André Lannoy co-
organizes the working group “Sécurité et sûreté des structures" (GTR 3S, Safety and
reliability of structures11), a group which counts several of the authors of this book among its
members.
The authors would like to express their particular gratitude to Maurice Lemaire for his
