Constructing Regional Security: The Role of Arms Transfers, Arms Control, and Reassurance

380 Pages·2000·3.32 MB·English

by  William J. Durch (auth.)

Constructing Regional Security
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Constructing Regional Security
The Role of Arms Transfers,
Arms Control, and Reassurance
William J. Durch
A Century Foundation Book
Palgrave
CONSTRUCTINGREGIONALSECURITY
Copyright © The Century Foundation,Inc.,2000.
Softcoverreprintofthehardcover1stedition2000978-0-312-23645-8
All rights reserved.No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner
whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied
in critical articles or reviews.
First published 2000 by
PALGRAVE™
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Companies and representatives throughout the world.
PALGRAVE™ is the new global publishing imprint of St.Martin’s Press LLC Scholarly
and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd).
ISBN978-1-349-63107-0 ISBN978-1-137-08052-3(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-137-08052-3
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Durch,William J.
Constructing regional security :the role of arms transfers,arms control,and reassurance
/ by William J.Durch.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. National security. 2. Arms transfers. 3. Arms control. 4. Military assistance.
5. United States—Military policy. 6. World politics—1989- I. Title.
UA10.5.D87 2000
355’.032—dc21
00–041726
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Design by Letra Libre,Inc.
First edition:December 2000
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
The Century Foundation,formerly the Twentieth Century Fund,sponsors and su-
pervises timely analyses of economic policy,foreign affairs,and domestic political is-
sues.Not-for-profit and nonpartisan,it was founded in 1919 and endowed by Edward
A.Filene.
Board of Trustees of The Century Foundation
H.Brandt Ayers Jessica Tuchman Mathews
Peter A.A.Berle Alicia H.Munnell
Alan Brinkley,Chairman P.Michael Pitfield
Joseph A.Califano,Jr. Richard Ravitch
Alexander Morgan Capron Alan Sagner
Hodding Carter III Arthur M.Schlesinger,Jr.
Edward E.David,Jr. Harvey I.Sloane,M.D.
Brewster C.Denny Theodore C.Sorensen
Charles V.Hamilton Kathleen M.Sullivan
Matina S.Horner James Tobin
Lewis B.Kaden David B.Truman
James A.Leach Shirley Williams
Richard C.Leone William Julius Wilson
Richard C.Leone,President
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Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
Foreword by Richard C.Leone xiii
Preface and Acknowledgments xv
Introduction 1
Chapter 1 Elements of the Arms Trade
and Patterns of Proliferation 7
Chapter 2 Arms Transfers and Regional Security 61
Chapter 3 Getting Down to Cases 105
Chapter 4 Assessing Supply-Side Arms Control 147
Chapter 5 Regional Measures to
Reduce Demand for Armaments 175
Chapter 6 Conclusions and Implications for U.S.Policy 215
Appendix A Mapping Security Complexes 239
Appendix B The Arms Transfer Data Set 243
Appendix C Conflict Scaling and Path Analysis 259
Notes 285
Bibliography 335
Index 355
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List of Figures
1.1 Numbers of Developing Countries,
1951–1995,by Level of Arms Imports 13
1.2 Value of U.S.Arms Transfers,All Countries,1950–1977 19
1.3 SIPRI Trend-indicator Values for Arms Deliveries
to Developing States,by Supplier Country,1951–1985 22
1.4 U.S.ACDA Values for Arms Deliveries to Developing
States,by Supplier Country,1986–1996 23
1.5 Annual Average Value of U.S.Arms Transfers
to Developed Countries 24
1.6 Annual Average Value of U.S.Arms Transfers
to Developing Countries 25
1.7 New Combat Aircraft Models Entering Service,
by Generation and Time Period 30
1.8 Heavy Combat Aircraft Deliveries to
All Developing Regions,by Generation 31
1.9 Average First-delivery Transfer Delay,
Heavy Combat Aircraft 34
1.10 Light Attack Aircraft Deliveries,
All Developing Regions 35
1.11 Missile-armed Helicopter Deliveries,by Region 37
1.12 Transport Helicopter Deliveries,by Region 37
1.13 Deliveries of Armored Vehicles,
All Developing Regions 40
1.14 Deliveries of Main Battle Tanks,
All Developing Regions 40
1.15 Deliveries,Medium and Heavy Tanks,Middle East 41
1.16 Deliveries,Medium and Heavy Tanks,Persian Gulf 41
1.17 Rough Tonnage of Warships Delivered,
All Developing Regions 44
1.18 Missile System Models Entering Service,
by Generation and Time Period 50
1.19 Rates of Guided Missile Proliferation
to Developing Countries,by Time Period 50
1.20 Relative Delay in First Delivery of Missiles,
by Time Period and Supplier 51
1.21 Density of Missile Proliferation,
by Region and Supplier,1950–1995 52
1.22 First Deliveries of Naval Cruise Missiles,by Region 53