Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947–2001

388 Pages·2013·28.6 MB·English

by  Milo Jones, Philippe Silberzahn

Constructing Cassandra

Constructing Cassandra
REFRAMING INTELLIGENCE FAILURE AT THE CIA,
1947–2001
Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn
Stanford Security Studies
An Imprint of Stanford University Press
Stanford, California
Stanford University Press
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Jones, Milo, author.
JonCeosn, Mstriuloc,t ainugth Coar.ssandra : reframing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947–2001 /
M iCloo nJosntreus catnindg P Chailsispapned Srial b: errezfraahmn.ing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947–2001 /
Mi lo pJaogneess camnd Philippe Silberzahn.
I ncplaugdeess cbmibliographical references and index.
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1IISS. BBUNNn i99te77d88 --S00t--a88t0e04s4.77 C--98e35n83t60ra--08l I((ncptlboekltlh.i g: :ea anlklck.e .p pAaapgpeeernr)c)y—History. 2. Intelligence service—
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UnJiKte4d6 8S.tIa6tJe7s —20H13istory. I. Silberzahn, Philippe, author. II. Title.
3JK274.16287.I360J70 92'004135—dc23
327.1273009'045—dc23 2013010527
Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/14 Minion 2013010527
Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/14 Minion
ISBN: 978-0-8047-8715-4 (electronic)
ISBN: 978-0-8047-8715-4 (electronic)
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgments vii
Abbreviations ix
Introduction 1
1 The Work of Intelligence 17
2 How the CIA Is Made 38
3 The Iranian Revolution 80
4 The Collapse of the USSR 102
5 The Cuban Missile Crisis 135
6 The Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 192
7 The CIA and the Future of Intelligence 234
Notes 255
Bibliography 335
Index 361
v

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
this book is the result of a unique collaboration between Milo Jones (on
whose research it is based) and Philippe Silberzahn.
Both Milo and Philippe would like to thank (in alphabetical order): Dr.
Albena Azmanoza, Fiona Buckland, Ignacio Corrachano, Dr. Christopher
Daase, Daniel Gastel, Jeremy Ghez, A. Edward Gottesman, Dr. Kent Gray-
son, Lisel Hintz, the late Alan P. Jones Jr., Edith H. Jones, Dr. Elizabeth B.
Jones, Frances C. Jones, Dr. Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, Bernhard
Kerres, Dr. Mitchell Leimon, the late Dr. William Melczer, Ewa Moncure, Dr.
Philippe Monin, Dr. Michael Palo, Prof. Richard Portes, Alastair Ross, Dr.
Blair A. Ruble, Dr. Eitan Shamir, Dr. Jamie Shea, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Dr.
Mark Teeter, and Dr. Jarrod Wiener; they also thank Allen Thomson, the late
Christine Zummer, and other CIA employees (past and present) and members
of the AFIO who wish to remain anonymous.
Milo dedicates this book to his wife Ewa, daughter Emily, and to U.S. Ma-
rines, past, present and future: Semper Fi.
Philippe dedicates this book to his wife Chittima, daughter Margaux, and
son Antoine.
vii

ABBREVIATIONS
COSPO: Community Open Source Program Office
CTC: Counterterrorism center (CIA)
DCI: Director of Central Intelligence, head of the CIA
DDCI: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
DI: Directorate of Intelligence
DIA: Defense Intelligence Agency
DO: Directorate of Operations
DOD: Department of Defense
HUMINT: Human Intelligence
IC: Intelligence Community
IMINT: Image Intelligence
INR: Bureau of Intelligence and Research (State Department)
MASINT: Measurement and Signature Intelligence
NIC: National Intelligence Council
NIE: National Intelligence Estimate
NSC: National Security Council
OIG: Office of Inspector General (CIA)
OSINT: Open-source Intelligence
SIGINT: Signal Intelligence
SNIE: Special National Intelligence Estimate
SOVA: Office of Soviet Analysis (CIA)
ix