Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life

284 Pages·2007·1.36 MB·English

by  John H. Miller

January2,2007 Time: 09:26am prelims.tex
Complex Adaptive Systems
i
January2,2007 Time: 09:26am prelims.tex
princeton studies in complexity
series editors
SimonA.Levin(PrincetonUniversity)
StevenH.Strogatz(CornellUniversity)
Lars-ErikCederman,EmergentActorsinWorldPolitics:HowStatesand
NationsDevelopandDissolve
RobertAxelrod,TheComplexityofCooperation:Agent-BasedModelsof
CompetitionandCollaboration
PeterS.Albin,BarriersandBoundstoRationality:EssaysonEconomic
ComplexityandDynamicsinInteractiveSystems.Editedandwithan
introductionbyDuncanK.Foley
DuncanJ.Watts,SmallWorlds:TheDynamicsofNetworksbetweenOrder
andRandomness
ScottCamazine,Jean-LouisDeneubourg,NigelR.Franks,JamesSneyd,
GuyTheraulaz,EricBonabeau,Self-OrganizationinBiologicalSystems
PeterTurchin,HistoricalDynamics:WhyStatesRiseandFall
AndreasWagner,RobustnessandEvolvabilityinLivingSystems
MarkNewman,Albert-LaszloBarabasi,andDuncanWatts,eds.,
TheStructureandDynamicsofNetworks
J.StephenLansing,PrefectOrder:RecognizingComplexityinBali
JoshuaM.Epstein,GenerativeSocialScience:StudiesinAgent-Based
ComputationalModeling
JohnH.MillerandScottE.Page,ComplexAdaptiveSystems:
AnIntroductiontoComputationalModelsofSocialLife
ii
January2,2007 Time: 09:26am prelims.tex
Complex Adaptive Systems
an introduction to computational
models of social life
John H. Miller and Scott E. Page
princeton university press
princeton and oxford
iii
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Copyright(cid:1)c 2007byJohnH.MillerandScottE.Page
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To George Cowan
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vi
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Contents
ListofFigures xiii
ListofTables xv
Preface xvii
Part I Introduction 1
1 Introduction 3
2 ComplexityinSocialWorlds 9
2.1 TheStandingOvationProblem 10
2.2 What’stheBuzz? 14
2.2.1 StayCool 14
2.2.2 AttackoftheKillerBees 15
2.2.3 AveragingOutAverageBehavior 16
2.3 ATaleofTwoCities 17
2.3.1 AddingComplexity 20
2.4 NewDirections 26
2.5 ComplexSocialWorldsRedux 27
2.5.1 QuestioningComplexity 27
Part II Preliminaries 33
3 Modeling 35
3.1 ModelsasMaps 36
3.2 AMoreFormalApproachtoModeling 38
3.3 ModelingComplexSystems 40
3.4 ModelingModeling 42
4 OnEmergence 44
4.1 ATheoryofEmergence 46
4.2 BeyondDisorganizedComplexity 48
4.2.1 FeedbackandOrganizedComplexity 50
Part III Computational Modeling 55
5 ComputationasTheory 57
5.1 TheoryversusTools 59
5.1.1 PhysicsEnvy:APseudo-FreudianAnalysis 62
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viii • Contents
5.2 ComputationandTheory 64
5.2.1 ComputationinTheory 64
5.2.2 ComputationasTheory 67
5.3 ObjectionstoComputationasTheory 68
5.3.1 ComputationsBuildinTheirResults 69
5.3.2 ComputationsLackDiscipline 70
5.3.3 ComputationalModelsAreOnlyApproximationsto
SpecificCircumstances 71
5.3.4 ComputationalModelsAreBrittle 72
5.3.5 ComputationalModelsAreHardtoTest 73
5.3.6 ComputationalModelsAreHardtoUnderstand 76
5.4 NewDirections 76
6 WhyAgent-BasedObjects? 78
6.1 FlexibilityversusPrecision 78
6.2 ProcessOriented 80
6.3 AdaptiveAgents 81
6.4 InherentlyDynamic 83
6.5 HeterogeneousAgentsandAsymmetry 84
6.6 Scalability 85
6.7 RepeatableandRecoverable 86
6.8 Constructive 86
6.9 LowCost 87
6.10 EconomicE.coli(E.coni?) 88
Part IV Models of Complex Adaptive
Social Systems 91
7 ABasicFramework 93
7.1 TheEightfoldWay 93
7.1.1 RightView 94
7.1.2 RightIntention 95
7.1.3 RightSpeech 96
7.1.4 RightAction 96
7.1.5 RightLivelihood 97
7.1.6 RightEffort 98
7.1.7 RightMindfulness 100
7.1.8 RightConcentration 101
7.2 SmokeandMirrors:TheForestFireModel 102
7.2.1 ASimpleModelofForestFires 102
7.2.2 Fixed,HomogeneousRules 102
7.2.3 HomogeneousAdaptation 104
7.2.4 HeterogeneousAdaptation 105
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Contents • ix
7.2.5 AddingMoreIntelligence:InternalModels 107
7.2.6 OmniscientClosure 108
7.2.7 Banks 109
7.3 EightFoldingintoOne 110
7.4 Conclusion 113
8 ComplexAdaptiveSocialSystemsinOneDimension 114
8.1 CellularAutomata 115
8.2 SocialCellularAutomata 119
8.2.1 SociallyAcceptableRules 120
8.3 MajorityRules 124
8.3.1 TheZenofMistakesinMajorityRule 128
8.4 TheEdgeofChaos 129
8.4.1 IsThereanEdge? 130
8.4.2 ComputationattheEdgeofChaos 137
8.4.3 TheEdgeofRobustness 139
9 SocialDynamics 141
9.1 ARovingAgent 141
9.2 Segregation 143
9.3 TheBeachProblem 146
9.4 CityFormation 151
9.5 Networks 154
9.5.1 MajorityRuleandNetworkStructures 158
9.5.2 Schelling’sSegregationModelandNetworkStructures 163
9.6 Self-OrganizedCriticalityandPowerLaws 165
9.6.1 TheSandPileModel 167
9.6.2 AMinimalistSandPile 169
9.6.3 Fat-TailedAvalanches 171
9.6.4 PurposiveAgents 175
9.6.5 TheForestFireModelRedux 176
9.6.6 CriticalityinSocialSystems 177
10 EvolvingAutomata 178
10.1 AgentBehavior 178
10.2 Adaptation 180
10.3 ATaxonomyof2×2Games 185
10.3.1 Methodology 187
10.3.2 Results 189
10.4 GamesTheory:OneAgent,ManyGames 191
10.5 EvolvingCommunication 192
10.5.1 Results 194
10.5.2 FurtheringCommunication 197
10.6 TheFullMonty 198
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11 SomeFundamentalsofOrganizationalDecisionMaking 200
11.1 OrganizationsandBooleanFunctions 201
11.2 SomeResults 203
11.3 DoOrganizationsJustFindSolvableProblems? 206
11.3.1 Imperfection 207
11.4 FutureDirections 210
Part V Conclusions 211
12 SocialScienceinBetween 213
12.1 SomeContributions 214
12.2 TheInterestinBetween 218
12.2.1 InbetweenSimpleandStrategicBehavior 219
12.2.2 InbetweenPairsandInfinitiesofAgents 221
12.2.3 InbetweenEquilibriumandChaos 222
12.2.4 InbetweenRichnessandRigor 223
12.2.5 InbetweenAnarchyandControl 225
12.3 HereBeDragons 225
Epilogue 227
TheInterestinBetween 227
SocialComplexity 228
TheFarawayNearby 230
Appendixes
A AnOpenAgendaForComplexAdaptiveSocialSystems 231
A.1 WhitherComplexity 231
A.2 WhatDoesitTakeforaSystemtoExhibitComplex
Behavior? 233
A.3 IsThereanObjectiveBasisforRecognizingEmergenceand
Complexity? 233
A.4 IsThereaMathematicsofComplexAdaptiveSocialSystems? 234
A.5 WhatMechanismsExistforTuningthePerformanceof
ComplexSystems? 235
A.6 DoProductiveComplexSystemsHaveUnusualProperties? 235
A.7 DoSocialSystemsBecomeMoreComplexoverTime 236
A.8 WhatMakesaSystemRobust? 236
A.9 CausalityinComplexSystems? 237
A.10 WhenDoesCoevolutionWork? 237
A.11 WhenDoesUpdatingMatter? 238
A.12 WhenDoesHeterogeneityMatter? 238