Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector

230 Pages·2012·10.94 MB·English

CH0300076
PAUL SC HI RR ER IN STITUT
PSI Bericht Nr. 03-04
March 2003
ISSN 1019-0643
China Energy Technology Program
Comparative Assessment
of Severe Accidents in the Chinese
Energy Sector
Stefan Hirschberg, Peter Burgherr, Gerard Spiekerman,
Erik Cazzoli, Jirina Vitazek and Lulian Cheng
P AU L (HERR ER IN STITUT
PSI Bericht Nr. 03-04
March 2003
ISSN 1019-0643
China Energy Technology Program
Comparative Assessment
of Severe Accidents in the Chinese
Energy Sector
Stefan Hirschberg, Peter Burgherr, Gerard Spiekerman, Erik Cazzoli,
Jirina Vitazek and Lulian Cheng
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH-5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland
Phone [phone]
Fax [phone]
Internet: www.psi.ch
I
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES IN TEXT IV
LIST OF TABLES IN TEXT VII
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IX
1. INTRODUCTION I
1.1 Context of the study 1
1.2 Objectives and scope 1
1.3 Severe accident definition 2
2. INFORMATION SOURCES 4
2.1 Overview of selected databases and other sources 4
2.2 Completeness of collected data 6
2.2.1 Coal chain 6
2.2.2 Other energy chains 8
2.2.3 Severe accident database used for CETP 8
3. GENERAL INFORMATION AND ISSUES 10
3.1 China's energy mix 10
3.2 The role of energy in China's policy for the 21st century 11
4. EVALUATIONS FOR SPECIFIC ENERGY CHAINS 12
4.1 Coal chain 13
4.1.1 Background 13
4.1.2 China's coal industry 14
4.1.3 Severe accidents in China's coal chain 26
4.2 Oil chain 37
4.2.1 Background 37
4.2.2 China's oil industry 41
4.2.3 Severe accidents in China's oil chain 46
43 Natural gas chain 50
4.3.1 Background 50
4.3.2 China's natural gas industry 50
4.3.3 Severe accidents in China's natural gas chain 54
4.4 Liquefied petroleum gas chain 56
4.4.1 Background 56
4.4.2 China's LPG industry 56
4.4.3 Severe accidents in China's LPG chain 58
4.5 Coalbed methane 60
4.5.1 Background 60
4.6 Hydro power 61
4.6.1 Background 61
4.6.2 China's hydro power industry 66
4.6.3 Severe accidents in China's hydro power chain 72
4.7 Nuclear chain 75
4.7.1 Background 75
4.7.2 Analysis scope 76
4.7.3 Probabilistic methodology 77
4.7.4 Assumptions 8 1
4.7.5 Main Risk Results 95
4.7.6 Uncertainties 101
4.7.7 Conclusions III
5. ENERGY CHAIN COMPARISONS 113
5.1 Aggregated indicators and frequency consequence curves 113
5.2 Indicators for the future 119
6. CONCLUSIONS 122
6.1 Specific chains 122
6.2 Comparative aspects 124
7. REFERENCES 126
GLOSSARY 134
UNITS 138
APPENDIX A: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE
CHINESE COAL CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1994-1999 139
APPENDIX B: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE
CHINESE OIL CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 163
APPENDIX C: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE
CHINESE NATURAL GAS CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 165
APPENDIX D: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE
CHINESE LPG CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 166
APPENDIX E: PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY 167
APPENDIX F DETAILED RESULTS 179
APPENDIX G SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 196
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LIST OF FIGURES IN TEXT
Figure 1: Number of fatalities per produced tonne of coal for 1896-1998 in US coal ining, and for the
years 1908, 1922, 1932, 1946, 1956, 1966, 1975, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989 in UK coal mining. 7
Figure 2 China's energy output mix for the period 1971-1999 [lEA, 2001 10
Figure 3 Electrical output by energy carriers in China [1EA, 20011. 10
Figure 4 Classification and uses of coal. 3
Figure 5: Sulfur content of bituminous including anthracite (BA), sub-bituminous (SB) and lignite (L)
coal. WC: Western Canada, EC: Eastern Canada. 14
Figure 6 Heat value of bituminous including anthracite (BA), sub-biturninous (SB) and lignite (L) coal.
WC: Western Canada, EC: Eastern Canada. 15
Figure 7 World's ten largest coal producers of hard (HC) and brown coal (BQ in year 1999. Values
for 1990 and 1995 are included for comparison. Data are from JEA 2001 . 16
Figure 8: World's ten largest coal consumers of hard (HC) and brown coal (BC) in year 1999. Values
for 1990 and 1995 are included for comparison. Data are from lEA 2001 ]. 16
Figure 9 World's ten countries with largest proven coal reserves at the end of 1999 [BP Amoco, 20011. 17
Figure 10: Coal production by provinces for 1998 and 1999 [CClY, 1999 200]. 7
Figure I : World's ten countries with largest coal exports [lEA, 2001 1. 18
Figure 12: China's final coal consumption by sectors for years 1990, 1995 and 1999 [1EA, 2001 19
Figure 13: Number of employees in the most important Chinese industrial branches for 1998 [CCIY,
I 9991. 20
Figure 14: Productivity in coal mining for Cina, South Africa and USA (IEA, 2001; COY, 1997-
2000; MSHA, 2002). 21
Figure 15: Number of severe accidents that occurred in the Chinese coal chain according to various
sources. Black bars represent severe accidents contained in ENSAD, whereas yellow bars represent
those additionally collected from various other sources during CETP. The red bar gives the number of
accidents used for statistical evaluations within the CETP framework. 26
Figure 16: Number of severe accident fatalities that occurred in the Chinese coal chain according to
various sources. Black bars represent fatalities from severe accidents contained in ENSAD, whereas
yellow bars represent those additionally collected from various other sources during CETP. The red bar
gives the number fatalities used for statistical evaluations within the CETP framework. 27
Figure 17: Number of severe accidents in China's coal chain by year and mine type. 28
Figure 18: Number of severe accident fatalities in China's coal chain by year and nne type. 28
Figure 19: Shares and absolute number of fatalities in severe and smaller accidents that occurred in
China's coal chain from 1994 to 1999. The mean value for this period is also given. 29
Figure 20: Fatalities per Mt of produced coal in severe accidents according to mine type for the years
1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 30
Figure 21: Fatalities per Mt of produced coal in smaller accidents alone according to ine type for the
years 1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 30
Figure 22: Fatalities per Mt produced coal in severe and smaller accidents according to ine type for
individual provinces Values represent means for 1997-1999. Provinces marked by a frame are discussed
in detail in Section 41.3.6. 3
Figure 23: Number of accidents according to coal chain stages for the years 1994-1999. The average
value for this period is also given. 32
Figure 24: Number of fatalities according to coal chain stages for the years 1994-1999. The average
value for this period is also given. 32
Figure 25: Average number of accidents per year according to different causes for the period 1994-
1999. Dark lines within bars represent one standard deviation. 33
Figure 26: Average number of fatalities according to different causes for the period 1994-1999. Dark
lines within bars represent one standard deviation. 34
Figure 27: Number of severe accidents and fatalities according to ine type in Shandong province for
the period 1994-1999. 35
Figure 28: Number of severe accidents and fatalities according to according to ine type in Shanxi
province for the period 1994-1999. 35
Figure 29: Average severe accident fatality rates per Mt according to different causes for Shandong and
Shanxi for the period 1994-1999. Error bars indicate one standard deviation. 36
Figure 30: Pipeline spillage frequencies by cause [Lyons, 19981. 38
Figure 31: World's ten largest oil producers (based on year 1999). Values for 1990 and 1995 are given
for comparison. Data are from lEA 2001 ]. 42
Figure 32: World's ten largest oil consumers (based on year 1999). Values for 1990 and 1995 are
included for comparison. Data are from lEA 2001 ]. 43
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Figure 33: Regional distribution of proved recoverable oil reserves at the end of 2000 [BP Aoco,
20011. 44
Figure 34: Countries with the largest proved recoverable reserves at the end of 200 [BP Amoco,
20011. 44
Figure 35: Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio at the end of 2000 for China and other areas [BP Amoco,
20011. 45
Figure 36: China's final oil consumption by sectors for the years 1985, 1990 and 1995 [lEA, 1997]. 45
Figure 37: Number of severe accidents in China's oil chain in the period 1969-1999. 47
Figure 38: Number of severe accident fatalities in China's oil chain in the period 969-1999. 47
Figure 39: Number of accidents in China according to oil chain stages in the period 1969-1999. 48
Figure 40: Number of severe accident fatalities in China according to oil chain stages in the period 1969-
1999. 48
Figure 41: World's largest natural gas producers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for
comparison. Data are from IEA 2001 ]. 5 1
Figure 42: World's largest natural gas consumers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for
comparison. Data are from IEA 20011. 51
Figure 43: China's final natural gas consumption by sectors for the years 990, 1995 and 1999 [IEA,
20011. 53
Figure 44: Number of severe accidents in China's natural gas chain in the period 1969-1999. 55
Figure 45: Number of severe accident fatalities in China's natural gas chain in the period 1969-1999. 55
Figure 46: World's largest LPG producers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for comparison.
Dataare from IEA 2001]. 57
Figure 47: World's largest LPG consumers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for
comparison. Data are from IEA 2001]. 57
Figure 48: China's final LPG consumption by sectors for the years 1990, 1995 and 1999 [IEA, 2001]. 58
Figure 49: Number of severe accidents in Cina's LPG chain in the period 1969-1999. 59
Figure 50: Number of severe accident fatalities in China's LPG chain in the period 1969-1999. 59
Figure 51: Top ten countries by number of large dams [WCD, 2000; ICOLD, 1998; 2000]. For
comparison, estimated numbers of large dams according to WCD and number of dams registered at
ICOLD are shown. 67
Figure 52: Large dams in China according to purpose, based on database by COLD 20001. 67
Figure 53: World's largest hydro power producers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for
comparison. Data are from EA 2001 J. 72
Figure 54: Nuclear electricity production in OECD and non-OECD countries between 1980 and 1999.
Respective values for China are also given for comparison. Source: Data are from IEA 2001 75
Figure 55: Exemplification of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment [from Cazzoh et al, 1993]. 79
Figure 56: Maps with distances. Large and small circles have a radius of 800 km and I 00 km,
respectively. GIS-Source: ESRI Data Map CD. 82
Figure 57: Frequency of exceedance for the number of early fatalities - current reactors. 96
Figure 58: Frequency of exceedance for the number of latent fatalities - current reactors. 97
Figure 59: Frequency of exceedance for contaniinated area - current reactors. 97
Figure 60: Comparison of risks normalized to the largest risk - current reactors (maximum value -
Qingdao PWR 61 E-3 GWyr). 98
Figure 61: Frequency of exceedance for the number of early fatalities - advanced reactors. 99
Figure 62: Frequency of exceedance for the number of latent fatalities - advanced reactors. 99
Figure 63: Frequency of exceedance for contaminated area in km2 - advanced reactors. 100
Figure 64: Comparison of risks normalized to the largest risk - advanced reactors (maximum value -
Qingdao EPR 48 E-4). 100
Figure 65: Comparison of risk measures for increasing core inventories about 30% and increasing
population to 800 km by about 20% (maximum value - Qingdao ABWR latent fatalities, 72 E-4). 104
Figure 66: Frequency of exceedance for number of early fatalities 30% higher inventories, 20% higher
population in 800 km area). 105
Figure 67: Frequency of exceedance for the number of latent fatalities 30% higher inventories, 20%
higher population in 800 km area). 105
Figure 68: Frequency of exceedance for contaminated area 30% higher inventories, 20% higher
population in 800 km area). 106
Figure 69: Frequency of exceedance for early fatalities for increased source terms - advanced reactors. 109
Figure 70: Frequency of exceedance for latent fatalities for increased source terms - advanced reactors. 109
Figure 71: Frequency of exceedance of land contamination for increased source terms - advanced
reactors. 110
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Figure 72: Normalized isk measures for increased source terms - advanced reactors (maximum value -
Qingdao ABWR latent fatalities, 14 E-3). 110
Figure 73: Comparison of risks for different sites and different plants and uncertainty results. III
Figure 74: Severe accident fatality rates for immediate fatalities in major energy chains for China
(1994-1999), non-OECD countries without China 1969-1996), non-OECD countries with China (1969-
1999), and OECD countries 1969-1996). 114
Figure 75: Frequency-consequence curves for the coal chain for China 1994-1999), non-OECD
countries without China and OECD countries (I 969-1996). 116
Figure 76: Frequency-consequence curves for the oil chain for China (CETP, 1969-1999), non-OECD
countries without China 1996-1996), non-OECD countries with China 1969-1999), and OECD
countries 1969-1996). 116
Figure 77: Frequency-consequence curves for the natural gas chain for China (CETP, 1969-1999), non-
OECD countries without China 1996-1996), non-OECD countries with China 1969-1999), and OECD
countries 1969-1996). 117
Figure 78: Frequency-consequence curves for the LPG chain for China (CETP, 1969-1999), non-OECD
countries without China 1996-1996), non-OECD countries with Cna 1969-1999), and OECD
countries 1969-1996). 117
Figure 79: Frequency-consequence curves for the hydro power chain for non-OECD countries with
China 1969-1999), and OECD countries 1969-1996). Encircled data points indicate Chinese dam
failures. 118
Figure 80: Frequency-consequence curves for the nuclear chain based on Probabilistic Safety
Assessment for the 2 sites Qingdao and Yantai in Shandong province. 118
Figure 81: Comparison of severe accident records based on frequency-consequence curves for different
energy chains in the period 1969-1999, except for Coal 1994-1999). The results for the nuclear chain
are based on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and represent latent fatalities, whereas the other chains are
based on historical accidents and represent immediate fatalities. 119
Figure 82: Expected severe accident fatality rates for current conditions and in 2020 for various energy
chains. 121
Figure 83: Maximum credible consequences for various energy chains. 121
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LIST OF TABLES IN TEXT
Table 1: Summary of the severe accident database used for CETP. Time periods considered are 1969-
1999 for China and 1969-1996 for non-OECD w/o China and OECD. 9
Tabl 2 Stages of different energy chains. 2
Table 3 Sulfur and ash contents of Chinese coal. 14
Tabl 4 Top ten coal ining enterprises that had an annual production greater than 10 Mt in 1998
[Fridley et al., 2001 ]. 1 8
Table 5: Most destructive earthquakes that occurred worldwide causing 50'000 fatalities or more
[USGS National Earthquake Iformation Center, 2000]. 24
Tabl 6 Share of severe accident fatalities compared to all accidents in the US coal industry for the
period 950-1999. 29
Tabl 7 The worst severe accidents in each coal chain stage during 1969-1999. 33
Table 8: Top ten tanker oil spills between 1970-1999 from international oil spill statistics [ITOPF,
2001; Cutter, 2001]. 40
Tabl 9 Chinese spills of hydrocarbons that caused major pollution for the period 1969-2000. 49
Table 10: Natural gas reserves and R/P ratios for countries with the world's largest reserves [BP Amoco,
20011. 52
Table 11: Technical and economic effects of large dams. 62
Table 12: Ecosystem effects of large dams. 64
Table 13: Social effects of large dams. 64
Table 14: World's largest hydroelectric plants (>4000 MW capacity). Source: Information Please
[20011. 69
Table 15: Major characteristics of TGP dam 70
Table 16: Severe accidents involving dams of all purposes in Cina. 74
Table 17: Current status of China's installed and planned nuclear power capacity. Op operational,
Uc = under construction, PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor. Source: PRIS, 2002. 76
Table 18: Population in Qingdao and Yantai sites. 82
Table 19: Similarities and differences between basic and advanced types of NPPs. 86
Table 20: Initial Core Inventories, with 3600 MWTh operating power. 86
Table 21: Source terms for PWR. 87
Table 22: PWR releases in Bq. 87
Table 23: Source terms for BWR. 88
Table 24: BWR releases in Bq. 88
Table 25: Quotients for consequence calculations. 90
Table 26: Land contamination for Qingdao site with land lost in km2/Bq. 91
Table 27: Land contamination for Yantai site with land lost in -m 2/Bq. 91
Table 28: Number of fatalities per Bq for Qingdao site. 91
Table 29: Number of fatalities per Bq for Yantai site. 91
Table 30: Early fatalities for Qingdao site for the worst conditional consequences. 92
Table 31: Late fatalities (early exposure) for Qingdao site for the worst conditional consequences. 92
Table 32: Delayed fatalities (delayed exposure) for Qingdao site for the worst conditional
consequences. 93
Table 33: Latent fatalities (early and delayed exposure) for Qingdao site for the worst conditional
consequences. 93
Table 34: Land contamination - land lost in km2 for Qingdao site for the worst conditional
consequences. 93
Table 35: Early fatalities for the Yantai site for the worst conditional consequences. 94
Table 36: Late fatalities (early exposure) for the Yantai site for the worst conditional consequences. 94
Table 37: Delayed fatalities (delayed exposure) for the Yantai site for the worst conditional
consequences. 94
Table 38: Latent fatalities (early and delayed exposure) for the Yantai site for the worst conditional
consequences. 95
Table 39: Land contamination - land lost in km2 for the Yantai site for the worst conditional
consequences. 95
Table 40: Risk for Qingdao and Yantai site - current reactors. 96
Table 41: Risk for Qingdao and Yantai site - advanced reactors. 98
Table 42: Risk for basic inventories (inventories are defined in Table 20). 102
Table 43: Risk for core inventories 30% higher than considered for advanced reactors. 102
Table 44: Original table for quotients (compare Table 25). 102
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Table 45: Population to 800 km 20% higher. 103
Table 46: Risk for population in 800 km higher by about 20%. 103
Table 47: Risk for increased core inventories 30%) and population to 800 km 20%). 103
Table 48: Increase of risk based on increased core inventories and population. 104
Table 49: Original source terms for Qingdao ABWR (compare Table 23). 107
Table 50: Increased source terrns for Qingdao ABWR. 107
Table 51: Oiginal source terms for Qingdao EPR (compare Table 21). 108
Table 52: Increased source terms for Qingdao EPR. 108
Table 53: Risk for increased source terms for Qingdao ABWR, EPR. 108
Table 54. Assumptions for selection of aggregated indicators for MCDA input. 120