Coexistence, Cooperation and Common Security: Annals of Pugwash 1986

357 Pages·1988·30.93 MB·English

by  Joseph Rotblat

OTHER PUGWASH PUBLICATIONS
Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (C. F. Barnaby, ed., Souvenir
Press, 1968)
Implications of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (C. F. Barnaby and
A. Boserup, eds, Souvenir Press, 1969)
Impact of New Technologies on the Arms Race (B. T. Feld, T. Greenwood,
G. W. Rathjens and S. Weinberg, eds, The Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 1971)
J. Rotblat, Scientists in the Quest for Peace: a History of the Pugwash
Conferences (The MIT Press, 1972)
Pugwash on Self-Reliance (W. K. Chagula, B. T. Feld and A. Parthasarathi,
eds, Ankur Publishing House, 1977)
A New Design for Nuclear Disarmament (W. Epstein and T. Toyoda, eds,
Spokesman, 1977)
International Arrangements for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing (A. Chayes and
W. Bennett Lewis, eds, Ballinger, 1977)
Feeding Africa (Pan-African Pugwash Group, 1978)
The Dangers of Nuclear War (F. Griffiths and J. C. Polanyi, eds, University
of Toronto Press, 1979)
Appropriate Technology and Social Values (F. A. Long and A. Oleson, eds,
Ballinger, 1980)
New Directions in Disarmament (W. Epstein and B. T. Feld, eds, Praeger,
1981)
European Security, Nuclear Weapons and Public Confidence (W. Gut-
teridge, ed., Macmillan, 1982)
Scientists, the Arms Race and Disarmament (J. Rotblat, ed., Taylor and
Francis, 1982)
Proceedings of the First Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs
(J. Rotblat, ed., Pugwash Council, 1982)
The Dangers of New Weapon Systems (W. Gutteridge and T. Taylor, eds,
Macmillan, 1983)
The Arms Race at a Time of Decision: Annals of Pugwash 1983 (J. Rotblat
and A. Pascolini, eds, Macmillan, 1984)
Nuclear Strategy and World Security: Annals of Pugwash 1984 (J. Rotblat
and S. Hellman, eds, Macmillan, 1985)
World Peace and the Developing countries: Annals of Pugwash 1985
(J. Rotblat abd U. D'Ambrosio, eds, Macmillan, 1986)
Strategic Defences and the Future of the Arms Race: A Pugwash Symposium
(J. Holdren and J. Rotblat, eds, Macmillan, 1987)
Coexistence, Cooperation and Common Security: Annals of Pugwash 1986
(J. Rotblat and L. Valki, eds, Macmillan, 1988)
COEXISTENCE,
COOPERATION, AND
COMMON SECURITY
Annals of Pugwash 1986
Edited by
JOSEPH ROTBLAT
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of London
Chairman, British Pugwash Group
and
LASZLO V ALKI
Professor of International Law
Eotvos Lorand University
Budapest
M
MACMILLAN
PRESS
© Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 1988
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission
of this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied
or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance
with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended),
or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place,
London WClE 7DP.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to
this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and
civil claims for damages.
First published 1988
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS L TD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Coexistence, cooperation and common
security annals ofPugwash, 1986.
1. Security, International
I. Rotblat, Joseph 11. Valki, Laszlo
111. Pugwash (Peace Movement)
327.1'16 JX1952
ISBN 978-0-333-46587-5 ISBN 978-1-349-19369-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-19369-1
Contents
Preface: Editors ix
Notes on the Contributors xii
Acronyms xv
PART ONE: THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE
1 B. Sanders Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons 3
2 V. I. Goldansky Connection between Horizontal and Vertical 21
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
3 D. Frei Command/Control/Communication/ 37
Intelligence and Crisis Stability
4 Peri Pamir Nuclear-Free Zones as a Step Towards 53
Global Nuclear Disarmament
5 F. A. Long Unilateral Initiatives and Reciprocal 71
Responses for Arms Control and
Disarmament
PART TWO: EUROPEAN SECURITY
6 J. P. Holdren Extended Deterrence, No First Use, and 81
European Security
7 L. Valki Certainties and Uncertainties about Military 99
Doctrines
8 Mary Kaldor The Political Significance of the Non-Nuclear 117
Defence Policy of the British Labour Party
9 A. T. Balevski and Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones in Europe 135
C. Kiuranov
10 J. J. Graabaek Military Technology and Non-Offensive 143
Defence in Europe
11 A. Karkoszka Balance of Conventional Forces in Europe 146
12 K. F. Birnbaum Reducing Threat Perceptions: Guidelines for 154
Enhanced Stability in Europe
13 A. A. C. von Muller Defensive Conventional Force Structures as 161
a Catalyst for a Second Detente
Contents
PART THREE: ROLE OF NON-NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES
14 O. R. Grimsson The Role of Non-Nuclear States in Reducing 171
the Nuclear Danger
15 G. Ignatieff The Role of Canada in Efforts to Reduce the 191
Nuclear Danger within Alliances
16 Maj-Britt Theorin Nuclear Weapons and a Neutral 195
Country-The Case of Sweden
17 K. Subrahmanyam Role of Non-Aligned States in Efforts to 203
Reduce the Nuclear Danger
PART FOUR: NON-MILITARY ASPECTS OF REDUCING EAST-WEST
TENSION
18 F. Calogero Addressing the Roots of East -West 219
Confrontation: Can Detente be Restored?
19 E. E. Galal Roots of East-West Confrontation: 233
Asymmetrical Symmetries
20 N. Behar Non-Military Aspects of Mutual Security: 239
Interrelation between Regional and Global
Problems
21 K. Gottstein Scientific and Cultural Cooperation as a 255
Means for Reducing East-West Tensions
22 H-P. Durr World Peace Initiative. A Comprehensive 261
International Research and Development
Programme for the Solution of the Global
Problems
PART FIVE: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
23 Nicole Ball Military Expenditures, International 269
Economic Relations and Detente
24 O. T. Bogomolov East-West Trade and Economic Relations 289
25 T. Pahinkai Strategic Aspects of the Development of 301
East-West Economic Relations
26 Wang Houkang Strengthening South-South Cooperation for 312
the Maintenance of World Peace
27 M. S. Wionczek Where is the World Economy Going, if 319
Anywhere?
Contents
APPENDIX
Coexistence, Cooperation Statement from the Pugwash Council 335
and Common Security
Index 345
Preface
Notable developments in nuclear arms negotiations have
greatly changed the situation since the Pugwash Conference in
Budapest in September 1986. At the Reykjavik summit meeting
in October, President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary
'Vlikhail Gorbachev came nearly to reaching agreement on a plan
to abolish nuclear weapons within ten years. The stumbling
block was the linkage with SDI, although it is very doubtful
whether the plan would have been implemented even without the
SDI obstacle. However, despite the failure to reach accord,
the repercussions of the Reykjavik talks were far-reaching.
For the first time since the early 1960s, the leaders of the
two superpowers put on the agenda not just nuclear arms
reduction but the elimination of nuclear weapons altogether.
Arms control negotiations have been going on for several
decades but have not produced a single, mutually agreed,
measure to reduce the nuclear arsenals. Indeed, the nuclear
arms race continued unabated, with the ever increasing danger
of an inadvertent or accidental nuclear war. It was the
realisation of that danger that prompted the leaders to seek
radical measures to avert it. Reykjavik was the signal for a
completely new approach to the problem.
In 'Vlarch 1987 the Soviet Union agreed to talks on abolish-
ing non-strategic nuclear forces, without reference to SDI.
The basis of the talks was the zero-zero proposal to elimin-
ate all intermediate-range, as well as short-range, nuclear
missiles in Europe. One aspect of the original proposal, to
allow each side to keep 100 such missiles outside Europe, was
for a while a bone of contention, but this obstacle was sub-
sequently removed, when both sides agreed on the complete
elimination of that class of weapons, making the double-zero
option global. Another, still existing, obstruction is the
fate of the 72 Pershing-IA missiles deployed in West Germany,
but hopefully this too will be overcome. With regard to
strategic weapons, the link with SDI is still a stumbling
block, but a 50 per cent cut in the arsenals, as a first
ix
x PREFACE
step, seems likely. There has also been very promising
progress in the negotiations on a ban of chemical weapons,
and talks are proceeding on reductions in conventional
forces. Although the influence of those with vested interest
in continuing the arms race must not be underestimated - and
no doubt there will be further attempts to undermine the
negotiations - the prospects for peace look now definitely
much better than they have been for a long time.
Of vital importance to these prospects are the recent
changes inside the Soviet Union. Under the dynamic leadership
of lIJIikhail Gorbachev, a number of reforms have taken place
which became identified in the West by the Russian words
glasnost (openness) and perestroika (reconstruction).
Whatever their effect may be internally, they have already
changed considerably the attitude of the West towards the
Soviet Union. There is now less mistrust, and hostile
propaganda has been muted. Such a change in the political
climate will have a positive influence on the negotiations on
disarmament measures and greatly increase the chances of
success. And vice versa, success in these negotiations will
be conducive to a further increase in trust. There can be no
disarmanent without trust, and no trust without disarmament.
All these welcome events were foreshadowed in the 1986
Pugwash Conference. as is manifest in the title of the
Conference: Coexistence. Cooperation and Common Security.
The whole spirit of the Conference was to move away from
conflicts and confrontations, and concentrate on the numerous
opportunities for constructive and creative collaboration.
Not that the difficulties were ignored or underrated; many
papers pointed out the obstacles to be overcome and empha-
sized the need to approach the problems in realistic terms,
but the general trend was to find ways to alleviate the
existing difficulties and lay the foundations for a
harmonious and secure world.
On the urgent issue of the nuclear arms race, the insta-
bility inherent in the present security system, particularly
in handling crisis situations, was analysed, and the need to
implement the obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty
- thus preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to other
countries - was stressed. A step towards the prevention of
such spread is the establishment of nuclear-free zones in
various parts of the world; the prospects for this were
scrutinised.
The currently pursued policy of nuclear deterrence, and the
ways it affects European security were extensively and criti-
cally reviewed, as was the situation in relation to the con-
ventional forces in Europe. Measures to enhance stability in
Europe, especially by adopting a posture of non-offensive