Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters: Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems and Societies

499 Pages·2012·9.308 MB·English

Climatic Change
and Global Warming
of Inland Waters
Climatic Change
and Global Warming
of Inland Waters
Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems and Societies
Editedby
Charles R. Goldman
University of California, USA
Michio Kumagai
Ritsumeikan University, Japan
Richard D. Robarts
World Water and Climate Foundation, Saskatoon, Canada
A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
ClimaticChangeandGlobalWarmingofInlandWaters:ImpactsandMitigationforEcosystemsand
Societies/[editedby]CharlesR.Goldman,MichioKumagai,andRichardD.Robarts.
pagecm
ResearchsolicitedfromscientistswhoattendedsessionsorganizedbytheWorldWaterandClimate
Network,WWCNinNice,France,2009.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-119-96866-5(hardback)
1.Climaticchanges–Environmentalaspects.2.Climaticchanges–Socialaspects.3.Freshwater
ecology. 4.Greenhousegasmitigation.I.Goldman,CharlesRemington,1930-II.Kumagai,Michio.
III.Robarts,R.D.(RichardD.)
QC903.C54842013a
551.48–dc23
2012027540
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmay
notbeavailableinelectronicbooks.
Setin10/12TimesbyLaserwordsPrivateLimited,Chennai,India
FirstImpression2013
Contents
ListofContributors xiii
Preface xix
Part I Impacts on Physical, Chemical, and Biological Processes 1
1 ClimateChangeImpactsontheHydrologyandBiogeochemistryof
ArcticRivers 3
RobertM.Holmes,MichaelT.Coe,GregJ.Fiske,TatianaGurtovaya,
JamesW.McClelland,AlexanderI.Shiklomanov,RobertG.M.Spencer,
SuzanneE.Tank,andAlexanderV.Zhulidov
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Thepan-Arcticwatershed 4
1.3 Observationaldata—historicaltocontemporarytimeseries 8
1.4 Projectionsoffuturefluxes 16
1.5 Conclusions 19
1.6 Acknowledgments 20
References 20
2 ClimateImpactsonArcticLakeEcosystems 27
WarwickF.Vincent,IsabelleLaurion,ReinhardPienitz,and
KateyM.WalterAnthony
2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 Physicalimpactsofclimatechange 29
2.3 Biogeochemicalimpactsofclimatechange 31
2.4 Biologicalimpactsofclimatechange 34
2.5 Humanimpactsofclimatechange 34
2.6 Conclusions 36
2.7 Acknowledgments 38
References 38
vi CONTENTS
3 TrendsinHydrologicalandHydrochemicalProcessesinLakeBaikal
underConditionsofModernClimateChange 43
M.N.ShimaraevandV.M.Domysheva
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Airtemperature 44
3.3 Surfacewatertemperature(T ) 45
w
3.4 WatertemperatureoftheLakeBaikalupperzone 48
3.5 Deepwaterzonetemperature 48
3.6 RiverinflowstoLakeBaikal 51
3.7 LakeBaikaliceregime 51
3.8 EffectofatmosphericcirculationonclimaticandhydrologicalprocessesatLake
Baikalduringthepresentperiod 53
3.9 ProblemsofpossiblehydrologicalconditionchangesatLakeBaikalinthe
twenty-firstcenturyareattributedtoglobalchange 54
3.10 NutrientchangesinLakeBaikal—silica 55
3.11 Concentrationdynamicsofphosphate,nitrateanddissolvedoxygeninLakeBaikal 62
3.12 Acknowledgements 64
References 64
4 HydrologicalAnalysisoftheYellowRiverBasin,China 67
XieyaoMa,YoshinobuSato,TakaoYoshikane,MasayukiHara,FujioKimura,
andYoshihiroFukushima
4.1 Introduction 67
4.2 ClimateandlanduseintheYellowRiverbasin 68
4.3 Precipitationnumericalexperiment 70
4.4 Numericalexperimentofriverrunoff 72
4.5 Hydrologicalimpactduetohuman-inducedland-usechanges 73
4.6 Long-termwaterbalanceintheYellowRiverbasin 73
4.7 WatersavingeffectintheYellowRiverbasin 75
4.8 Conclusions 77
4.9 Acknowledgements 78
References 78
5 WaterResourcesunderClimateChangeintheYangtzeRiverBasin 79
MarcoGemmer,BudaSu,andTongJiang
5.1 Introduction 79
5.2 Observedchangesofprecipitationandtemperature 81
5.3 Observedchangesofstreamflowandflood/droughtindices 83
5.4 Projections 84
5.5 Mitigatingthenegativeeffectsofclimaticchange 88
References 91
6 BiogeochemicalEcosystemDynamicsinLakeBiwaunderAnthropogenic
ImpactsandGlobalWarming 95
MitsuruSakamoto
6.1 Introduction 95
6.2 EnvironmentalfeaturesofLakeBiwa 96
CONTENTS vii
6.3 Globalwarminganditseffectsonthethermalandhydrologicalregimesin
LakeBiwa 96
6.4 BiogeochemicalevolutioninthepelagicsystemofLakeBiwa 99
6.5 Effectsofhypoxichypolimniondevelopmentonbiologicalandgeochemical
processesinLakeBiwa 103
6.6 PossibleeffectsofclimatechangeonLakeBiwaandadaptationmeasuresto
expectedchanges 106
References 108
7 Eutrophication,WarmingandHistoricalChangesofthePlankton
CommunityinLakeBiwaduringtheTwentiethCentury 111
NarumiK.TsugekiandJotaroUrabe
7.1 Introduction 111
7.2 Factorsaffectinghistoricalchangesintheplanktoncommunity 113
7.3 WinterwarmingandlifehistorychangesinDaphnia 123
7.4 Conclusion 125
References 125
8 NumericalSimulationofFutureOverturnandEcosystemImpactsfor
DeepLakesinJapan 131
DaisukeKitazawa
8.1 Introduction 131
8.2 Numericalmodel 133
8.3 Comparisonwithobservations 138
8.4 Futureprediction 140
8.5 Conclusions 142
8.6 Acknowledgements 143
References 143
9 ModelDevelopmenttoEvaluatetheImpactsofClimateChangeon
TotalPhosphorusConcentrationsinLakes 145
KoheiYoshiyama
9.1 Introduction 145
9.2 Modelframework 146
9.3 Concludingremarks 152
References 153
10 RecentClimate-InducedChangesinFreshwatersinDenmark 155
ErikJeppesen,BrianKronvang,TorbenB.Jørgensen,SørenE.Larsen,
HansE.Andersen,MartinSøndergaard,LoneLiboriussen,RikkeBjerring,
LiselotteS.Johansson,DennisTrolle,andTorbenL.Lauridsen
10.1 Introduction 155
10.2 Trendsinwaterflowinstreamsanddiffusenutrientlosses 156
10.3 Trendsinstreamtemperature 157
10.4 Trendsinlaketemperature 159
10.5 Trendsintheformationanddurationofthethermoclineinlakes 162
viii CONTENTS
10.6 Changesintrophicstructureandecologicalstate 164
10.7 Predictionsofthefuture 167
10.8 Adaptationneeded 169
10.9 Acknowledgments 169
References 169
11 LakePhytoplanktonResponsestoGlobalClimateChanges 173
KirstenOlrik,GertrudCronberg,andHele´neAnnadotter
11.1 Introduction 173
11.2 Changesinphytoplanktonofthecircumpolarzones 174
11.3 Changesinphytoplanktonoftheborealandtemperateclimaticzones 176
11.4 Changesinphytoplanktonassembliesofthesemi-aridsubtropicalclimaticzone 190
11.5 Changesinphytoplanktonassembliesofthetropicalclimaticzone 192
11.6 Concludingremarks 195
11.7 Acknowledgements 197
References 197
12 TheInfluenceofClimateChangeonLakeGeneva 201
UlrichLemminandAdelineAmouroux
12.1 Introduction 201
12.2 Atmosphericboundarylayertemperatures 202
12.3 Lakewarmingtrends 205
12.4 Discussion 212
12.5 Conclusion 215
12.6 Acknowledgements 216
References 216
13 ClimateChangeandWetlandsofthePrairiePotholeRegionofNorth
America:Effects,ManagementandMitigation 219
MarleyJ.Waiser
13.1 Introduction 219
13.2 ClimateanditsinfluenceonwetlandsinthePPR 221
13.3 Wetlandhydrology 222
13.4 Linkagesbetweenclimateandwetlandprocesses 222
13.5 Existingclimatechange 223
13.6 Predictedclimatechangeanditseffects 224
13.7 Mitigation/managementofclimatechange 226
13.8 Actionrequired 228
13.9 Whatiscurrentlybeingdone? 228
13.10 Acknowledgements 229
References 229
14 HistoricandLikelyFutureImpactsofClimateChangeonLakeTahoe,
California-Nevada,USA 231
RobertCoats,GolokaSahoo,JohnRiverson,MarizaCosta-Cabral,
MichaelDettinger,BrentWolfe,JohnReuter,GeoffreySchladow,
andCharlesR.Goldman
14.1 Introductionandbackground 231
CONTENTS ix
14.2 HistoricclimatetrendsintheTahoeBasin 234
14.3 Modelingtheimpactsoffutureclimatechange 235
14.4 Impactsonthewatershed 237
14.5 Impactonthelake 242
14.6 Reducingnegativeimpacts 249
14.7 Summaryandconclusions 250
14.8 Acknowledgements 251
References 251
15 OurNewBiologicalFuture?TheInfluenceofClimateChangeonthe
VulnerabilityofLakestoInvasionbyNon-NativeSpecies 255
MarionE.Wittmann,KaLaiNgai,andSudeepChandra
15.1 Introduction 255
15.2 LakeTahoe:ahistoryofchangeattributedtoculturaleutrophication,thermal
changesfromclimate,andtheintroductionofnonnativespecies 257
15.3 TheeffectsofanalteredthermalregimetoTahoeinvasivespecies 260
15.4 Theeffectofclimatechangetowatertransparencyinwesternmontanelakesand
theimpactonvulnerabilitytoinvasion 264
15.5 Complicationsfornaturalresourcemanagers:understandingandmitigatingthe
responseofnonnativeaquaticspeciestoclimatechange 265
15.6 Acknowledgements 266
References 266
16 Long-TermChangesintheLakeKinneretEcosystem:TheEffectsof
ClimateChangeandAnthropogenicFactors 271
IliaOstrovsky,AlonRimmer,YosefZ.Yacobi,AmiNishri,AssafSukenik,
OraHadas,andTamarZohary
16.1 Introduction 271
16.2 Changesinthewatershedandtheirlong-termimpactsonLakeKinneret 273
16.3 Long-termlakesalinitychanges 276
16.4 Long-termlakestratificationchanges 276
16.5 Long-termchangestophytoplankton 277
16.6 Theinvasionofnitrogen-fixingcyanobacteria(Nostocales) 280
16.7 WinterpopulationsoftoxicMicrocystis 281
16.8 Long-termvariationofchlorophyllandprimaryproduction 282
16.9 Long-termsedimentationfluxchanges 283
16.10 Gaseousmethaneemission 285
16.11 Long-termchangesinfishpopulationsandthefishery 286
16.12 Conclusions 289
16.13 Acknowledgements 290
References 290
17 ClimateChangeandtheFloodplainLakesoftheAmazonBasin 295
JohnM.MelackandMichaelT.Coe
17.1 Introduction 295
17.2 Currentlimnologicalconditions 296
17.3 Currentclimaticconditions 296
17.4 Currentcharacteristicsofdischargeandinundation 298
17.5 Simulationsofinundationunderalteredclimatesandlanduses 300
x CONTENTS
17.6 Limnologicalimplicationsofalteredclimate,landusesandinundation 303
17.7 Managementoptionsandresearchdirections 305
17.8 Acknowledgements 306
References 306
18 ClimaticVariability,MixingDynamics,andEcologicalConsequences
intheAfricanGreatLakes 311
SallyMacIntyre
18.1 Introduction 311
18.2 ControlsonmixingdynamicsintheAfricanGreatLakes 313
18.3 MixingDynamicsinashallowGreatLake—LakeVictoria 319
18.4 MixingDynamicsinaMeromicticGreatLake—LakeTanganyika 325
18.5 LakeKivu—achemicallystratifiedlake 330
18.6 Changesinmixingdynamicsandecosystemdynamicsduetochangesinclimate
andlanduse 331
18.7 Acknowledgements 332
References 332
19 EffectsofClimateChangeonNewZealandLakes 337
DavidP.Hamilton,ChrisMcBride,DenizO¨zkundakci,MarcSchallenberg,
PietVerburg,MarydeWinton,DavidKelly,ChrisHendy,andWeiYe
19.1 Introduction 337
19.2 Geographicalandclimateperspective 337
19.3 Historicalclimate 338
19.4 Futureclimate 340
19.5 Overviewoflaketypesandformationprocesses 342
19.6 Climatechangeandimpactsonendemicandexoticfloraandfauna 343
19.7 Climatechangeimpactsonfish 344
19.8 Climatechangeimpactsonaquaticplantsandmacroinvertebrates 346
19.9 EffectsofclimatechangeonshallowNZlakes 347
19.10 Effectsofclimatechangeonhigh-altitudeNZlakes 349
19.11 Casestudy:LakeTaupo 350
19.12 Casestudy:LakePupuke 351
19.13 Casestudy:surfacetemperatureinmonomicticandpolymicticRotorualakes 351
19.14 Casestudy:bottom-waterdissolvedoxygeninLakeRotoiti 355
19.15 Casestudy:modelingeffectsoflanduseandclimatechangeforLakeRotorua 356
19.16 Managementchallengesandmitigationmeasures 358
19.17 Conclusions 361
References 362
20 GlobalChangeEffectsonAntarcticFreshwaterEcosystems:TheCase
ofMaritimeAntarcticLakes 367
AntonioQuesadaandDavidVela´zquez
20.1 Introduction 367
20.2 Antarcticlakes 368
20.3 Changesinphysicalparameters 370
20.4 Watershedchanges 373
20.5 Changesinchemicalparameters 373
20.6 Changesinthebiota 374
CONTENTS xi
20.7 ProposedmodelfortheresponseofAntarcticmaritimelakestoglobal
climatechange 376
20.8 Conclusions 379
20.9 Acknowledgements 379
References 379
Part II Impacts on Societies 383
21 AdaptationtoaChangingClimateinNorthernMongolia 385
ClydeE.GouldenandMunhtuyaN.Goulden
21.1 Background 385
21.2 Impactsofclimatechange 389
21.3 Herderresponsesandmeteorologicaldata 390
21.4 Adaptationstoclimatechange 392
21.5 Acknowledgement 394
References 394
22 ManagingtheEffectsofClimateChangeonUrbanWaterResources 395
GabrieladaCostaSilva
22.1 Introduction 395
22.2 Buildingadaptivecapacitytofaceurbanwaterstress 396
22.3 Adaptingtoclimatechange:theactionplansoftenmegacities 397
22.4 IntegratingagendasinDelhi,MexicoCityandSa˜oPaulo 400
22.5 TheNewYorkCityplan:predictingclimatechangeatthewatershedscale 403
22.6 Tokyo—let’sbecomealow-energysociety! 404
22.7 Don’ttheyneedaclimatechangeactionplan?ThecasesofMumbai,Kolkata
(Calcutta),Karachi,DhakaandShanghai 405
22.8 Challengesofadaptingurbanwatershedstoclimatechange 407
References 409
Part III Mitigation Approaches 413
23 WaterManagementPreparationStrategiesforAdaptation
toChangingClimate 415
Bala´zsM.FeketeandEugeneStakhiv
23.1 Introduction 415
23.2 Hydrologicalmodelingexperiment 417
23.3 Contemporaryobservations 423
23.4 Conclusions 424
References 425
24 InSearchofStrategiestoMitigatetheImpactsofGlobalWarming
onAquaticEcosystems 429
JustinD.Brookes,MartinSchmid,DominicSkinner,andAlfredWu¨est
24.1 Globalwarmingandimpactsonaquaticecosystems 429
24.2 Firstlevel—potentialforreducingtemperatureinaquatichabitats 431
24.3 Secondlevel—opportunitiestomodifyheatdistribution 436
24.4 Thirdlevel—opportunitiesforlakestoreducegreenhousegases 439