Climate Variability and the Global Harvest: Impacts of El Nino and Other Oscillations on Agro-Ecosystems

274 Pages·2008·5.5 MB·English

by  Cynthia Rosenzweig

Climate Variability and the Global Harvest
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Climate Variability
and the Global Harvest
Impacts of El Niño and Other
Oscillations on Agroecosystems
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Daniel Hillel
1
2008
1
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Rosenzweig, Cynthia.
Climate variability and the global harvest : impacts of El Niño and
other oscillations on agroecosystems / Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-19-513763-7
1. El Niño Current. 2. Climatic changes—Forecasting. 3. Crops and climate.
4. Climate and civilization. I. Hillel, Daniel. II. Title.
S600.7.C54R673 2007
338.1'4—dc22 2006036257
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
FOREWORD
Much public attention has being given lately to the process of climate change, and
concern has been expressed over its potential effects on natural ecosystems and on
human societies. Climate may be defined as the long-term average of weather phe-
nomena, for example, the mean temperature and precipitation values affecting dif-
ferent regions. Less attention, however, has been devoted to the patterns of variation
in the short-term weather, in part induced by oscillations related to the linkages
among the sea, land, and atmosphere, and to the increasingly intense manifesta-
tions of climate extremes affecting agriculture.
Weather fluctuations, even without overall change in climate, are closely linked
with food supply around the world. In many areas, weather extremes can spell the
difference between adequate food supply and famine, as physical and biological fac-
tors combine with social and cultural ones to create crises and insecurity. The situ-
ation is likely to grow worse as the change of climate intensifies weather
fluctuations, including the frequency and severity of droughts and floods. It is in
these circumstances that we must pursue a clearer understanding of climate vari-
ability and its impacts on agriculture.
As an agronomist with a strong interest in meteorology and climatology, I con-
sider such understanding essential to help guide our actions. The efforts of Cynthia
Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel to elucidate the topic of climate variability and its
implications regarding agriculture provide a much needed and timely synopsis and
analysis of one of the most crucial issues facing humanity at this critical juncture.
Jerry L. Hatfield
President, American Society of Agronomy
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many colleagues in the fields of climatology, agronomy, and social science have
contributed to the integrated study of the E1 Niño–Southern Oscillation and other
major variability systems in relation to agroecosystems. They are helping to improve
the use of that knowledge by stakeholders in food-producing regions around the
world.
In regard to specific contributions to this book, David Rind, Ray Bradley, Mark
Cane, Radley Horton, Mike Mann, and Neil Ward shared their expertise on climate
processes; Walter Baethgen and Jim Jones on crop modeling and decision support
systems; Sulochana Gadgil, Tim Finan, Max Campos, and Patricia Ramirez on cli-
mate and agriculture in India, Brazil, and Costa Rica; Bob Chen on food security;
Rich Adams on valuation; Harvey Hill on relevant programs; and Jonathan Patz and
Rita Colwell on climate-health interactions. Antonio Magalhães imparted his gentle
wisdom regarding the role that climate mainfests in development; and De Wayne
Cecil helped to build bridges across the divide between research and applications.
At GISS, José Mendoza created the expert graphics; Peter Neofotis and Megan
Cornwell helped to survey the voluminous literature; and Perinaz Bhada provided
outstanding support in the completion of the project. Peter Prescott, Senior Editor
at Oxford University Press, gave active encouragement and the benefit of his dis-
cernment; and the staff at Oxford University Press transformed the manuscript with
great care. Generous assistance for this project came from the Guggenheim
Foundation, which provided a fellowship for the underlying research.
Cynthia thanks Arthur, and Daniel thanks Michal for their forbearance and sup-
port during the long and arduous preparation of this book.
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CONTENTS
Foreword v
Abbreviations and Acronyms xi
Prologue 3
1 Climate Variability in the Context of Climate Change: El Niño and
Other Oscillations 10
2 Impacts of El Niño and La Niña Cycles: Systems and Sectors 43
3 Links to Agroecosystems: Processes and Productivity 66
4 Recent El Niños and Their Manifestations: Evolving Understanding 88
5 Analysis of El Niño Effects: Methods and Models 109
6 Seasonal Climate Predictions: Farmers, Planners, and Policymakers 128
7 Regional Activities in a Global Framework: Developing and
Developed Countries 158
8 Climate, Society, and Sustainable Development: Assessing
Vulnerability, Building Adaptive Capacity 183
Epilogue 199
Notes 203
References 209
Figure Credits 246
Index 253