climate variability and change and rain-fed farming system in selected semi-arid areas of tanzania

218 Pages·2016·2.71 MB·English

IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON RAIN-FED
FARMING SYSTEM IN SELECTED SEMI-ARID AREAS OF TANZANIA

JUMA KABOTE SAMWEL

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE
DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY OF SOKOINE UNIVERSITY OF
AGRICULTURE. MOROGORO, TANZANIA.

2015
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EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Climate variability and change pose serious challenges to smallholder farmers and agro-
pastoralists. Nonetheless, their trends and impacts on rain-fed farming system (RFFS) in
semi-arid areas of Tanzania have not sufficiently been explored. This study was conducted
in Iramba and Meatu districts to contribute to this knowledge gap. The study specifically
(i) assessed meteorological data trends of rainfall and temperature between 1994 and
2011; (ii) determined farmers’ perception of climate variability and change in relation to
meteorological data trends; (iii) determined changes in RFFS in response to climate
variability and change; and (iv) examined changes in gender relations in response to
climate variability and change. Although available meteorological data were less than 30
years suggesting climate variability, farmers’ perceptions covered up to 30 years and so
addressed the question of climate change. A qualitative phase informed a household
survey that covered a random sample of 388 households’ respondents (39% women).
Qualitative data were transcribed into text and analyzed based on content and meaning of
the text. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze quantitative
data. The results showed that there was no significant increase (P > 0.05) in inter-annual
rainfall variability. However, seasonal rainfall variability showed a clear decreasing trend
in April and December, in Iramba; and in January and April, in Meatu. Decreasing rainfall
trend in April occurred simultaneously with increasing temperature trend. In addition,
farmers’ perception and meteorological data trends compared well on change and on
increased rainfall unpredictability as well as on increased warming and dry years.
Nonetheless, due to missing data in some periods, meteorological data trends did not show
increased frequency of drought since the 2000s as opposed to farmers’ perception. As
hypothesized (P > 0.05), men and women’s perceptions were almost the same. Similarly,
perceptions of the poor, not so poor and the rich were almost the same (P > 0.05). Unlike
the hypothesis, the binary logistic regression model showed that climate variability and
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change had significant impact on changing crop varieties and livestock grazing places
relative to non-climatic factors. Warming (ß = -10.61, Wald = 36.26, P ≤ 0.001) showed
the highest impact on changing crop varieties. In addition, drought (ß = 2.16, Wald = 6.82,
P ≤ 0.009) showed the highest impact on changing livestock grazing places. Based on
division of labour, control over resources and biased norms, climate variability and change
increased and perpetuated existing asymmetrical gender relations. The study concludes
that although inter-annual rainfall had not changed significantly, temperature, drought and
seasonal rainfall variability had intensified relative to the situation in the 1970s. This had
substantial impacts on cropping and livestock systems and on gender relations. Therefore,
strategies used by the farmers and interventions promoted by the government and Non-
governmental Organizations (NGOs) to address the impacts should comprehensively
consider seasonal variability with gender perspectives.
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DECLARATION
I, Juma Kabote Samwel, do hereby declare to the Senate of Sokoine University of
Agriculture that this thesis is my own original work done within the period of registration
and that it has neither been submitted nor concurrently being submitted in any other
institution.

____________________________ ____________________
Juma Kabote Samwel Date
(PhD Candidate)

The above declaration is confirmed by

______________________________ _____________________
Dr. Jonathan Steven Mbwambo Date
(Supervisor)

_____________________________ _____________________
Dr. Delphina Peter Mamiro (Mrs) Date
(Supervisor)

_____________________________ ______________________
Prof. Gry Synnevåg Date
(Supervisor)
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COPYRIGHT
No part of this thesis may be produced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any
form, or by any means without prior written permission of the author or Sokoine
University of Agriculture in that behalf.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am grateful to the Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD), Enhancing Pro-
Poor Innovations in Natural Resources and Agricultural Value Chains (EPINAV) and
Higher Education Institutions Institutional Cooperation Instrument (HEI-ICI) for
financing this study. I am also thankful to my employer, Sokoine University of
Agriculture (SUA), for granting me a study leave so as to concentrate on my PhD research
project.

Special thanks go to my supervisors, Dr. Jonathan Steven Mbwambo, Dr. Delphina Peter
Mamiro (Mrs) and Prof. Gry Synnevåg for guiding me through the process of producing
this thesis. Also to Prof. Amon Zacharia Mattee, Dr. Carolyne I. Nombo, Dr. Justin Kalisti
Urassa, Dr. Emanuel Emilian Chingonikaya and Ms. Leah Masolwa for comments on
earlier drafts of the manuscripts presented. Similarly, Dr. Emmanuel Nzunda for
comments on my PhD research proposal; Prof. Salim Maliondo, Dr. Josiah Katani, Dr.
Susan Augustino and Prof. Joyce Lyimo-Macha for comments on the earlier drafts of
manuscripts presented. I also extend my gratitude to Prof. Kim A. Kayunze for reading
and comments on the entire manuscript.

I thank the offices of the District Administrative Secretary (DAS) in Iramba and Meatu
districts for granting me permission to conduct research in the districts. Enumerators
including Dotto Busagala, Mmeta Abdallah, Gaudence Anthony, Linda Kibirige and
Fatuma Kasuku are highly acknowledged for their support during data collection. In
addition, acknowledgements are extended to Village Executive Officers (VEOs), village
and hamlet chairpersons for their support during data collection. I am also indebted to
smallholder farmers and agro-pastoralists for the time they spent during focus group
discussions (FGDs) and also during household survey. Their knowledge about climate
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variability and change that was shared during data collection is highly appreciated. To
them I say thank you very much.

I am grateful to my wife Angela Richard Kabote for moral support and for being patient
while I was away for data collection and during my busy schedules in order to accomplish
this work. May God bless her. I am also thankful to my sons, Kevin and Chris, for
encouragement. May God bless my family.
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DEDICATION
This work is dedicated to my father Clement Kabote and my mother Bankolwa Nyanda
for laying the foundation of my education.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXTENDED ABSTRACT ................................................................................................. II
DECLARATION .............................................................................................................. IV
COPYRIGHT ..................................................................................................................... V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. VI
DEDICATION ................................................................................................................ VIII
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. IX
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... XIV
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... XVI
LIST OF APPENDICES .............................................................................................. XVII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................... XVIII

CHAPTER ONE .................................................................................................................. 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Global and Regional Trends in Climate Variability and Change .................................... 1
1.1.1 Trends in climate variability and change in Tanzania .......................................... 3
1.1.2 Physical and social-economic impacts of climate variability and change ........... 4
1.2 Problem Statement .......................................................................................................... 7
1.3 Justification for the Study ................................................................................................ 9
1.4 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 10
1.4.1 Overall objective ................................................................................................ 10
1.4.2 Specific objectives .............................................................................................. 10
1.5 Research Questions and Hypotheses ............................................................................. 11
1.5.1 Research questions ............................................................................................. 11
1.5.2 Research hypotheses ........................................................................................... 11
1.6 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................. 12
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1.6.1 Farming system thinking .................................................................................... 12
1.6.2 Feminist theories ................................................................................................ 13
1.6.3 Social theory of gender and power ..................................................................... 14
1.7 Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................. 15
1.8 Organization of the Thesis ............................................................................................ 19
References ........................................................................................................................... 19

CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................... 34
2.0 INTER-ANNUAL ANOMALY AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE IN SELECTED SEMI-ARID AREAS OF
TANZANIA .................................................................................................................. 34
2.1 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 34
2.2 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 35
2.3 The Study Districts ........................................................................................................ 39
2.4 Meatu District ................................................................................................................ 39
2.5 Iramba District ............................................................................................................... 40
2.6 Source of Data and Analysis ......................................................................................... 41
2.7 Results and Discussion .................................................................................................. 43
2.7.1 Trends in annual rainfall and temperature .......................................................... 43
2.7.2 Trends in number of dry and wet years .............................................................. 48
2.7.3 Trends in mean monthly rainfall and temperature ............................................. 49
2.7.4 Trends in number of rainy days within crop growing seasons ........................... 53
2.8 Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................................. 55
References ........................................................................................................................... 57